Twins announce opening day starting lineup

Per Joe Christensen's blog at the Star Tribune, Ron Gardenhire has announced tomorrow's lineup:

Quote:

---

Here is the lineup the Twins will use against Orioles righthander Jake Arrieta on Friday (first pitch at 2:05 p.m., Central):


1. Denard Span, CF
2. Jamey Carroll, SS
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, DH
5. Josh Willingham, LF
6. Ryan Doumit, RF
7. Danny Valencia, 3B
8. Chris Parmelee, 1B
9. Alexi Casilla, 2B


Starting pitcher: RH Carl Pavano

---

Looks like an offensively deep lineup considering Chris Parmelee is batting eighth. Defensively? Doumit and Willingham in the corners won't be the greatest coverage team but their bats could compensate for that lack of range. More importantly: BASEBALL'S ALMOST HERE.

You just beat me on posting this! :p Looking forward to the game! Hope Doumit does good in RF.

FYI: Ryan Doumit's RF "defense" http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/video...84785&c_id=mlb

Orioles are going with 3 rightys, I think, so this will be a good early test of Morneau's health out of the DH spot (as in, hopefully no need for him to sit because of a lefty going for the O's).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Parker Hageman

FYI: Ryan Doumit's RF "defense" http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/video...84785&c_id=mlb

---

Color Commentator: "It's only Doumit's 3rd start in RF." Yes, a regular RF would have had that ball. But if it's misplayed and gets past you, it's a triple. Can't really blame Doumit for playing it safe in his third game in RF.

Looks like we will see some high scoring games this year. (Hopefully)

Quote:

---

Color Commentator: "It's only Doumit's 3rd start in RF."

---

That's sort of an inaccurate depictions of Doumit's playing time in RF. Prior to 2010, he had manned RF in 334 innings. The commentator may have been referring to that particular season.

My expectations for Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee are all very low defensively, so those guys are gonna need to hit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Parker Hageman

FYI: Ryan Doumit's RF "defense" http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/video...84785&c_id=mlb

---

I've seen Cuddyer (and Kubel) do the same thing multiple times.

As a matter of fact, Doumit's career UZR/150 at RF (489 innings so fairly significant) is +5.7 If he keeps that his Defense there will be a major improvement over Cuddyer (Career UZR/150 is -6.6) As a matter of fact, I would argue that with Willingham and Doumit at the corners instead of Young and Cuddyer/Kubel, the Twins will have improved outfield defense.

Quote:

---

(489 innings so fairly significant)

---

No, 500 innings is not enough of a sample size to state the UZR accuracy. That's not even a season's worth of innings. I would wager that, if given the same amount of innings, he would end up with very similar UZR numbers to Cuddyer.

Quote:

---

I've seen Cuddyer (and Kubel) do the same thing multiple times.

---

Depending on the velocity/trajectory/etc on the ball's path, plenty of outfielders have pulled up short. With the Metrodome's surface, I believe we've seen more outfielders stop short on balls because of the way it could easily carom off the ground and become an inside the park home run. Cuddyer had a lot of defensive faults but getting to balls in front of him was one of his strong suits - according to Plus/Minus system, he was usually in the positive range one plays that were short but well into the negative marks when it came to deep fly balls.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thrylos98

I've seen Cuddyer (and Kubel) do the same thing multiple times.

As a matter of fact, Doumit's career UZR/150 at RF (489 innings so fairly significant) is +5.7 If he keeps that his Defense there will be a major improvement over Cuddyer (Career UZR/150 is -6.6) As a matter of fact, I would argue that with Willingham and Doumit at the corners instead of Young and Cuddyer/Kubel, the Twins will have improved outfield defense.

---

As mediocre as Willingham may be, he will look like Willie Mays compared to Delmon. Revere will get plenty of starts as well, and will most likely play the 7th/8th/9th in the OF when the Twins have the lead.

However, Doumit is not a good Right Fielder, you bring up his career UZR/150 but if you look year by year all the positive numbers came from 2007 (5 seasons ago) Doumit is now on the wrong side of 30, and UZR was very unkind to him the last time he played RF back in 2010. At this point him and Cuddyer are probably a wash. He also isn't very good at first base, which means 95% of Doumits value this year will have to come from his bat and his ability to play catcher.

OF defense will more or less be close to the same as last year (unless Revere and/or Benson become the regular starter), that is not a good thing. Everyone is going to need to pick it up a bit defensively this year or else this contact staff will suffer again.


I have more faith in Plouffe and Parmelee holding down a decent RF if it came down to it. We should know within the first 2-3 weeks which guy looks "the best" out there.

At least right field in Target Field is relatively small. Doumit won't need the speed for coverage that Willingham is going to have to miraculously produce at home.

Quote:

---

At least right field in Target Field is relatively small.

---

I'd love to see a study of size of the different fields across the league. Obivously, RF at Target Field is not nearly a spacious as Fenway but it's not as small as Yankee Stadium. I'd like to see where in the grand scheme of things it fits in.

Just ready for the season to start. I have very few expectations about this year -- good or bad. For once, I am just willing to see how it all plays out.

I think the Twins could surprise some of the national columnists -- in a good way. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if the season is a bust, either. But at least there are some interesting storylines that could develop.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thrylos98

I've seen Cuddyer (and Kubel) do the same thing multiple times.

As a matter of fact, Doumit's career UZR/150 at RF (489 innings so fairly significant) is +5.7 If he keeps that his Defense there will be a major improvement over Cuddyer (Career UZR/150 is -6.6) As a matter of fact, I would argue that with Willingham and Doumit at the corners instead of Young and Cuddyer/Kubel, the Twins will have improved outfield defense.

---

Yea but at least cuddyer would try to throw guys out at first

Willingham has to be better than Delmon, right? Doumit as good or better than Kubel?

I thought the defense would be a wash?

Carroll in place of Nishi at SS is a for real upgrade. Physically and mentally.

Well with all four guys being almost identical in age and career length delmon/kubel avg about .770 ops 106 ops+ and willingham/doumit About .800 ops 124 ops+ so I would say that it's an upgrade especially considering the new guys don't look like their wearing forest gumps "magic shoes" when their running. Oh and p.s. cuddyer didn't raise the stats much at all

Delmon v. Kubel v. Willingham: PCrs=124/116/133 respectively over past five full seasons (does not include 2012 extant). I think we have a winner.

So let's keep our fingers crossed that all of the balls off of Pavano are hit on the ground. Then the outfield won't have to do anything.