04-02-2012, 03:01 AM #1
2012 Twins Predictions: Justin Morneau Edition
Ever the optimist, I'm going to say that Justin Morneau will play in 145 games in 2012.
I think he will be the DH 110 games, and play 35 games at 1B. The latter may be a little high.
Offensively, I think anything could happen, but I'll go with:
.270/.340/.490 with 30 doubles, 21 home runs and about 91 RBI.
Consider all my numbers as Over/Under, and get your predictions for Justin Morneau in.
04-02-2012, 06:24 AM #2
Games Played - Under - I'll say about 125. We have a lot of other guys to get at bats.
I think your offensive stats are right in line with my expectations, with the exception of a BA north of .285.
I hope we're wrong and he plays over 150 games and is the Morneau of old...the only thing i'm still worried about is the nearly instantaneous change to his status.
04-02-2012, 07:40 AM #3
Under on DH. Over at 1st. (I think the hitting spike and transition to DH this spring is not accurate and it has more to do with trusting his wrist).
I really hope for an over on the slash stats. When healthy and productive, he's quite capable of posting an OPS near 1.00. I think your .830 is a bit low if he's healthy... If he's not... well, it will be a long season again.
04-02-2012, 08:19 AM #4
04-03-2012, 08:21 AM #5
04-03-2012, 08:29 AM #6
You won't get middle of the road here. Justin will either come all the way back with relatively monster numbers or he will be looking to retire. We should know fairly quickly how he handles the daily grind (even though they will be coddling him).
04-03-2012, 09:31 AM #7
If Morneau lasts through to July, I think he will have a big second half, as he is more confident, he will get to play more at 1B. A lot is going to ride on whether Doumit and Parmalee can do well with the bat, if they don't step up Morneau will have to play more 1B. I am going to give a Morneau line of 590 AB, .274/.361/.510 34 Doubles 23 HR 95 RBI I think he will end up playing 45 games at 1B, most of those coming in the 2nd half. Morneau is my favorite Minnesota Twin, so I am rooting for the best.
04-03-2012, 10:16 AM #8
These last few weeks of ST have made me think he might just be ok. I'm still not sure how he'll handle flying across the country but I'm hopeful. I don't think he'll play a game at first this year though. I agree with FireGladden, no middle of the road, if he's healthy I think he can put up all-star like numbers and be the best DH in the game - .300/.390/.510 like numbers. If he's not healthy, it's 2011 again.
04-03-2012, 11:42 AM #9
I don't even want to put in writing what my "predicitions" for him might be because I have no real basis for knowing, and if forced, my predictions would not be good. I would be extremely happy if he plays even 75 games this year with any stretch of productivity. That sounds extremely sad and pessimistic for a guy that was MVP caliber before July 2010, but much the same way I evaluated post-2006 Liriano, I don't view him as the same guy anymore. It's a very unfortunate situation to no fault of Morneau's, but we need to just take whatever we can get from him, and I'm reserving a level of hope that there's still something there.
04-03-2012, 01:21 PM #10
04-03-2012, 02:14 PM #11
145 games: I'll go under, around 135, because I think the Twins will be cautious and give him off days even if he is entirely healthy, although if his production continues to hold up through the all-star break they may try to keep him in the lineup.
110 games at DH: I'll go under, around 75 because I think Parmelee will finally start to struggle a few months into the season once teams start scouting him more heavily and exposing his weaknesses, and Morneau will start getting significantly more starts there as the organization and Moirneau both gain confidence in his durability.
35 games at first: over, 60, for the same reason
.270/.340/.490: over, .285/.350/.505, this is pretty bullish, but if you look what he's done when healthy the last few years, a .270 BA and .490 slugging seem like the absolute minimum, so I'm going to be optimistic and say that he really does return to form this year.
(I'm assuming 550 PAs here)
21 HRs: over, 25, Target Field depresses his potential here a little bit, but he's still got the strength to hit it out to right field
30 doubles: over, 36
91 RBIs: over, 100
04-04-2012, 09:51 AM #12
04-04-2012, 10:06 AM #13
I dont see Justin getting any 1B playing time till inter-league play. I hope that Mauer gets some 1B time so he can stay healthy but expect that Parmalee will basically play 1B every day.
As to stats for Justin this year--way to early to predict--playing DH helps, but he still has to deal with base running plays, airplane flights, overall fatigue and normal baseball injuries.
I hope we get 100 games from Justin but I have my doubts.
04-06-2012, 10:06 AM #14
I'm big time under of most.
120 games, 2 trips to the DL.
.266/.338/.467 19 HR, 77 RBI