Thread: Rosenthal: Gardy's Job Prospects

Ken Rosenthal wrote a story on 12 managers that are thin ice, including Twins manager Ron Gardenhire. He can't figure out why the Twins would fire him and things Gardy will be fine if they do...

The Mets, for whom Gardenhire played from 1981 to '85, would be an interesting possibility if the Twins let him go. Like Scioscia, Gardenhire would not be out of work long.

I suspect he's right. If Gardy wants to keep managing (and he seems like the kind of guy who would) he'll be hired by someone fast. Don't you think?

Both L.A. managers among 12 skippers on the hot seat for 2013 - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

I think most (admittedly not all) who are advocating for a change are not doing so because they think he can't manage - they think he can no longer manage here, for whatever reason (getting stale, needing fresh ideas, need to send a message after two bad seasons, players not responding, etc.)

I'm one of those who think Ryan has handled Gardenhire appropriately over the offseason. His track record calls for him to get to manage another year here (although I am a bit troubled by his post-season record), but if we don't see some signs of hope for the future this year it will be time to reevaluate that in October.

Seems a little premature to start writing his Twins managerial obit before the Twins have played an inning in 2013.

I have seen signs of humility that were noticeably lacking during the Smith years. Smith seemed to defer to Gardy a lot on roster construction (trading Hardy to make room for Nishioka, e.g.). Ryan does none of that. He's put his stamp on the roster and coaching staff and he expects Gardy to work with his people and innovate. To Gardy's credit, he's said he's willing to try new things. Today's Berardino story is an example of how he's even considering breaking the mold of having the #2 hitter as a slap and sacrifice guy and using a run producer ( Mauer) instead.

All these are signs of a new and improved Gardy. How much that affects his ability to manage a winner and, therefore, keep his job, is an open question. That's why we play the games.

Sure, Gardy could find another job if he wanted one.
He's not a bad manager.
But I also have no problem with the people who think he should be let go.
Like cmathewson said, the question of 'good/bad manager' in a vacuum is not the only reason managers or coaches get fired.

I guess I don't see how using Mauer as a #2 hitter is something new. Gardy has done it before, it just didn't really work all that well, in an admittedly small sample. The truth is it probably doesn't matter much if Mauer bats 2nd or 3rd. I prefer him in the 3rd spot myself. The same 3 guys are going to bat in front of Mauer no matter if he is batting 2nd or 3rd. Just in slightly different order. The big difference is the first inning. Batting Mauer 3rd increases the chance there is a runner on base when Mauer bats in the first inning. I like that because he hits extremely well with runners on base.

Originally Posted by Jim H

I guess I don't see how using Mauer as a #2 hitter is something new. Gardy has done it before, it just didn't really work all that well, in an admittedly small sample. The truth is it probably doesn't matter much if Mauer bats 2nd or 3rd. I prefer him in the 3rd spot myself. The same 3 guys are going to bat in front of Mauer no matter if he is batting 2nd or 3rd. Just in slightly different order. The big difference is the first inning. Batting Mauer 3rd increases the chance there is a runner on base when Mauer bats in the first inning. I like that because he hits extremely well with runners on base.

No, the biggest difference, is that unless you have someone qualified to bat #2, you are giving a poor hitter an extra 150 PA's over the course of the season.
Those who want Mauer in the 2 hole aren't so much concerned with which order the guys in front of him are hitting, we are concerned with giving those 150 extra PA's to your better hitters, as opposed to someone who should be hitting 8th or 9th.

And Mauer has an OPS 14 points higher in the 2 hole than he does in the 3 hole, so I'm not sure what you mean when you say it hasnt worked well.

Originally Posted by Jim H

I guess I don't see how using Mauer as a #2 hitter is something new. Gardy has done it before, it just didn't really work all that well, in an admittedly small sample. The truth is it probably doesn't matter much if Mauer bats 2nd or 3rd. I prefer him in the 3rd spot myself. The same 3 guys are going to bat in front of Mauer no matter if he is batting 2nd or 3rd. Just in slightly different order. The big difference is the first inning. Batting Mauer 3rd increases the chance there is a runner on base when Mauer bats in the first inning. I like that because he hits extremely well with runners on base.

To me, the interesting thing from the article is that Gardy implied that the stat guy thinks Mauer should hit second, and Gardy is considering it on that basis.

The logic is simple: Get the guys who get on base at the top. Don't put a .330 OBP guy in the 2 hole just because a percentage of his at bats will be wasted (when he will be needed to sacrifice and otherwise get Hicks over). In the best case as a 2 hitter, Mauer comes up with no one on base like 50 percent of the time. And there's no better guy on this team as a table setter. On the other hand, as a 3 hitter, he'll come up with guys on base about 50 percent of the time. And there's no one on this team who's better in those situations.

As the stat guy said, "In a perfect world, Mauer should hit first, second and third." The question is, with the other hitters in this line-up where will he be best placed? Assuming Hicks and Morneau are the guys we saw in spring training, I think second is the best spot. That's a big assumption, though. Both Hicks and Morneau hit way better this spring than they project to hit in the regular season.

Originally Posted by Jim H

I guess I don't see how using Mauer as a #2 hitter is something new. Gardy has done it before, it just didn't really work all that well, in an admittedly small sample. The truth is it probably doesn't matter much if Mauer bats 2nd or 3rd. I prefer him in the 3rd spot myself. The same 3 guys are going to bat in front of Mauer no matter if he is batting 2nd or 3rd. Just in slightly different order. The big difference is the first inning. Batting Mauer 3rd increases the chance there is a runner on base when Mauer bats in the first inning. I like that because he hits extremely well with runners on base.

If memory serves me right, it worked out very well (to the tune of 5-6 runs a game during the sample). Gardy went back to his old ways when some people came back from injury.

I really don't care all that much.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Seems a little premature to start writing his Twins managerial obit before the Twins have played an inning in 2013.

I have seen signs of humility that were noticeably lacking during the Smith years. Smith seemed to defer to Gardy a lot on roster construction (trading Hardy to make room for Nishioka, e.g.). Ryan does none of that. He's put his stamp on the roster and coaching staff and he expects Gardy to work with his people and innovate. To Gardy's credit, he's said he's willing to try new things. Today's Berardino story is an example of how he's even considering breaking the mold of having the #2 hitter as a slap and sacrifice guy and using a run producer ( Mauer) instead.

All these are signs of a new and improved Gardy. How much that affects his ability to manage a winner and, therefore, keep his job, is an open question. That's why we play the games.

Excellent post. Right on.

Though that article is still mildly frightening.

'If Gardy wants to keep managing (and he seems like the kind of guy who would) he'll be hired by someone fast. Don't you think?'

Only one way to find out... :-)

I've seen fans from other parts of the country down here talking about how good a manager Gardy is, the last a group from St Louis who observed he didn't have much to work with the last couple of years.

I'm still bitter with how he handled post season with Santana, and for pulling Balfour for Nathan to lose to the Yankees.

He was down for the minor league games this morning and saw Justin K twice, ground out and line out.

Originally Posted by sbknudson

I think most (admittedly not all) who are advocating for a change are not doing so because they think he can't manage - they think he can no longer manage here, for whatever reason (getting stale, needing fresh ideas, need to send a message after two bad seasons, players not responding, etc.)

I'm one of those who think Ryan has handled Gardenhire appropriately over the offseason. His track record calls for him to get to manage another year here (although I am a bit troubled by his post-season record), but if we don't see some signs of hope for the future this year it will be time to reevaluate that in October.

Explain to me what's so great about his track record? A few meaningless division titles in the most mediocre division in baseball? Beating up on the softies in the Central and always playing scared against the big boys out east? Abysmal playoff futility of historic proportions? Robotic managing? Not sending his starter out for the next inning if he's at 95 pitches (no matter how good he's going)? Burning out his bullpen by July? Batting Matt Tolbert 2nd?

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

No, the biggest difference, is that unless you have someone qualified to bat #2, you are giving a poor hitter an extra 150 PA's over the course of the season.
Those who want Mauer in the 2 hole aren't so much concerned with which order the guys in front of him are hitting, we are concerned with giving those 150 extra PA's to your better hitters, as opposed to someone who should be hitting 8th or 9th.

And Mauer has an OPS 14 points higher in the 2 hole than he does in the 3 hole, so I'm not sure what you mean when you say it hasnt worked well.

Exactly spot on. Not only are poor hitters getting more plate appearances over the course of the year, but Mauer's getting less plate appearances batting 3rd. I'm all for Mauer getting as many AB's as possible. Batting 2nd gets him more atbats. What could be more frustrating than Mauer batting 3rd and ending the game in the on deck circle?

Originally Posted by Aaron Cross

What could be more frustrating than Mauer batting 3rd and ending the game in the on deck circle?

Is there a study, or some stats, that say #3 hitters are more likely to end the game in the on deck circle than #2 hitters...or really, more than any other spot in the batting order?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Is there a study that says #3 hitters are more likely to end the game in the on deck circle than #2 hitters...or really, more than any other spot in the batting order?

My point is that Mauer will get more atbats over the course of the season if he bats 2nd. Hell, I'd bat him leadoff. He's the best hitter on the team. He has the best OBP. Bat him 1st and maximize his number of plate appearances over the course of the year.

Originally Posted by Aaron Cross

My point is that Mauer will get more atbats over the course of the season if he bats 2nd. Hell, I'd bat him leadoff. He's the best hitter on the team. He has the best OBP. Bat him 1st and maximize his number of plate appearances over the course of the year.

And give him less opportunities to drive in runs when he is our best hitter with RISP?

Originally Posted by DJ Smith

I've seen fans from other parts of the country down here talking about how good a manager Gardy is, the last a group from St Louis who observed he didn't have much to work with the last couple of years.

I'm still bitter with how he handled post season with Santana, and for pulling Balfour for Nathan to lose to the Yankees.

He was down for the minor league games this morning and saw Justin K twice, ground out and line out.

How did he mishandle Santana? Start him in game one of every series? Pull him after 5 innings on short rest when Santana told him he was out of gas?

Also, Balfour was replaced by Rincon. Had Balfour stayed in it would have been his first outing of three innings that season. Is that something you want to start doing in the playoffs? And Rincon had been lights out all year. This is the ultimate hindsight whine.

As far as Gardy this year, I would have little problem with him being replaced after the season. He is a good manager, probably one of the best in the game, but he has been here since 2002. That is a really good run in baseball or any leadership position in any industry. At some point it makes sense to go a different direction.

The chances are the Twins are going to trade off more veteran pieces and break out more kids this year so there could be a need for more energy and someone willing to go through the growing pains of what should be a young team the next 3-4 years.