Thread: Souhan: Twins Pitching Loaded With Questions

The Strib's Jim Souhan sees all the good things about the Twins - their future, their health, Aaron Hicks - but also sees a pitching staff that has plenty of questions. And a team that might be grasping at straws on Day One....

The other day, Ryan was downplaying Deduno’s chances of making the rotation because he throws so many pitches he can’t be counted on for many innings. By Monday, manager Ron Gardenhire was salivating over the idea of having a starter like Deduno who can miss bats, regardless of how many innings he can provide.

And so it begins. I want to see this team do well, but this could get ugly in a hurry if the starting pitching falls to pieces early again. And I have to wonder if the guy who is going to catch the heat isn't the guy above Gardy on the org chart. (And he probably should.)

Souhan: Twins hurting in bullpen, and have a shaky rotation | StarTribune.com

It depends on what he's telling ownership.
If he's telling ownership, "we will compete now and rebuild", then yeah he might be in trouble.
If he's telling ownership, "we are punting this year, saving you a ton of money, and will compete in 2015", then I dont see how he could be in trouble.

As the season moves on the rotation should only improve with help from the minor leagues, and the improving health of players like Pelfry, Diamond, Gibson, and even Harden and Perez. That Deduno, Hendricks, and De Vries have some seasoning should be an advantage, as well.

While we might look more favorably at the rotation that emerged from ST in 2012, the fact is Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Marquis were ALL busts. I just don't think its at all reasonable that we can expect the same kind of results in 2013.

Yes, the rotation will be a carousel of mediocrity, but I doubt well see the depths of ineptitude of 2012.

I am actually a bit optimistic about the starting pitching. Worley will likely be alright. Pelfrey has been up and down, pretty predictable for a guy coming off of TJ surgery. He may struggle but he should eventually settle in. I know what everyone thinks of Correia but he will likely hold a spot in the rotation and if he can't, well Gibson should be ready sometime. Among the rest, I like Hendriks, even if he needs some more time in the minors, I think he will be good sometime. Deduno is interesting, maybe he found some control. DeVries is one of those guys who might be better than his stuff. Nobody is going to get too excited about these guys, but they probably aren't any worse than than the bunch that won 95 games 3 years ago.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

As the season moves on the rotation should only improve with help from the minor leagues, and the improving health of players like Pelfry, Diamond, Gibson, and even Harden and Perez. That Deduno, Hendricks, and De Vries have some seasoning should be an advantage, as well.

While we might look more favorably at the rotation that emerged from ST in 2012, the fact is Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Marquis were ALL busts. I just don't think its at all reasonable that we can expect the same kind of results in 2013.

Yes, the rotation will be a carousel of mediocrity, but I doubt well see the depths of ineptitude of 2012.

Boy, I disagree.
I'm worried the starting pitching could be just as bad, if not worse this year.
Thinking we are going to get help from the minor leagues is placing a ton of faith in Gibson, because I dont see May or Meyer coming up until Sept. at the earliest.
And while I think Diamond will still be a serviceable starter, I see a fairly significant regression from him this year.

One thing to remember about the comparison of this year to last year is that several of the guys we are walking into this thing relying on this year were somewhere between 7 and 12 on the starting pitching depth chart for this team last year. Their ascension up the depth chart has little to do with talent and production and much more to do with having a pulse and being relatively indistinguishable from the rest of the options.

It's great we added a few new names, but it remains to be seen if they are any better considering two guys like Deduno and Devries are getting rotation nods to open the season. Given that the cast of characters isn't that different, it's not hard to imagine the results being not much different as well.

Originally Posted by Jim H

Nobody is going to get too excited about these guys, but they probably aren't any worse than than the bunch that won 95 games 3 years ago.

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

Boy, I disagree.
I'm worried the starting pitching could be just as bad, if not worse this year.
Thinking we are going to get help from the minor leagues is placing a ton of faith in Gibson, because I dont see May or Meyer coming up until Sept. at the earliest.
And while I think Diamond will still be a serviceable starter, I see a fairly significant regression from him this year.

Everything went wrong last year. If Pelfrey, Correa, Worley pitch their career norms at 180 innings, that's something we didn't have last year. Diamond likely will digress but it's also possible that just one or two others (say Gibson and Hendricks) emerge as even league average pitchers.

Sure, the pitchers the Twins acquired might fail pitch their career norms, the injured pitchers may fail to return to health, Diamond, Deduno, and De Vries may all regress to irrelevance, and the young pitchers might all fail to develop. But that's an awful lot of pessimism.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Everything went wrong last year. If Pelfrey, Correa, Worley pitch their career norms at 180 innings, that's something we didn't have last year. Diamond likely will digress but it's also possible that just one or two others (say Gibson and Hendricks) emerge as even league average pitchers.

Sure, the pitchers the Twins acquired might fail pitch their career norms, the injured pitchers may fail to return to health, Diamond, Deduno, and De Vries may all regress to irrelevance, and the young pitchers might all fail to develop. But that's an awful lot of pessimism.

I dont think its overly pessimistic to think that all 3 of those guys, being NL pitchers, could struggle significantly in the AL. In fact, with few exceptions, its generally the norm.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

One thing to remember about the comparison of this year to last year is that several of the guys we are walking into this thing relying on this year were somewhere between 7 and 12 on the starting pitching depth chart for this team last year.

I just don't think this is really fair. The Twins aren't relying on Deduno and Devries, so much as they are using them as stop gaps for either injured guys like Diamond and Pelfrey or young guys like Hendricks and Gibson.

Unlike last year, as the season progresses the Twins depth should get better; and I think it's pretty good bet to make.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I just don't think this is really fair. The Twins aren't relying on Deduno and Devries, so much as they are using them as stop gaps for either injured guys like Diamond and Pelfrey or young guys like Hendricks and Gibson.

Unlike last year, as the season progresses the Twins depth should get better; and I think it's pretty good bet to make.

Every staff is going to have injuries at some point. So the Twins, in a way, actually are counting on one or both of those guys.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Sure, the pitchers the Twins acquired might fail pitch their career norms, the injured pitchers may fail to return to health, Diamond, Deduno, and De Vries may all regress to irrelevance, and the young pitchers might all fail to develop. But that's an awful lot of pessimism.

I get what you're saying, but it lacks context. All of the new acquisitions are jumping from the NL (historically not a good thing), one is coming off a major injury, another is coming off a significant injury, and the other's career norm just isn't very good. I'm optimistic about Hendricks and Gibson, but given that we are walking into this season with Devries and Deduno in the rotation already (and that's with Pelfrey pitching) there are plenty of reasons to be very concerned that we are actually better.

I guess, to me it's not about being a pessimist, it's that this team has a very low floor. Not unlike last year.

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

I dont think its overly pessimistic to think that all 3 of those guys, being NL pitchers, could struggle significantly in the AL. In fact, with few exceptions, its generally the norm.

I'll give you the standard run deferential between the leagues and score that as an improvement from last year's rotation.

From development to regression to changing leagues, it seems to me you view the negative outcome as the likely one--which might even be the case. However it's just very unlikely that the collection of independent events will all turn out negative.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Unlike last year, as the season progresses the Twins depth should get better; and I think it's pretty good bet to make.

Why would it get better?

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I'll give you the standard run deferential between the leagues and score that as an improvement from last year's rotation.

From development to regression to changing leagues, it seems to me you view the negative outcome as the likely one--which might even be the case. However it's just very unlikely that the collection of independent events will all turn out negative.

Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative.
If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad.
Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch.
I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly.

I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him.

I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year.

To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with.

But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.

What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

Originally Posted by The Wise One

What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

What is your deal man?
Nobody is claiming it has anything to do with putting on a Twins uniform, jeez.
There is a well documented NL to AL regression, do you dispute that?

Originally Posted by The Wise One

What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

And the finalists for Most Ironically Named TD Posters are:....

Originally Posted by The Wise One

What a concept, pitchers putting on a Twins uniform will regress. Other team's pitchers build on what they did and will get better for this season. A forum for ideas.

Hey, I'm all about Hendricks building. Maybe even Deduno. But your whole post seems to be intentionally missing the point, no?

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

Its not really that I think every collection of independent events will turn out negative, its just that I dont see nearly enough talent in this group to overcome even just some of them going negative.
If worse case scenario were to hit (meaning all of them turning negative), I think this rotation could be historically bad.
Like someone else said, its not just pitchers coming from the NL, 2 of them are coming off significant surgeries, so they carry even more risk than just the standard NL to AL switch.
I'm not convinced that Pelfrey is anywhere near ready to pitch, I mean what is he throwing right now, mid to high 80's? With his lack of movement, he needs his typical low to mid 90's just to be the serviceable pitcher that he was before the surgery. I hope they dont rush him out there knowing he's not ready, because IMO it could get ugly.

I also think its hard to know what you are going to get from Worley. He was good his rookie year, pretty bad last year. So many variables though: smallish sample size, his first year looks fairly lucky, last year looks fairly unlucky, he was pitching through injury, its just so hard to tell what to expect from him.

I think they are trying to be optimistic about Gibson, but the whispers I am hearing are that internally they are trying not to count on anything from him this year.

To me there are just so many ? marks, and IMO not even the majority of them need to go negative to be pretty bad, because i'm just not seeing much talent there to begin with.

But, this is why they dont play the games on paper, right! Only time will tell.

Take out the games Worley pitched against the Mets and he had the same kind of season he did the year before. That would make him a perfect Twins Ace (can't win against a New York team)