You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...ta-Twins-Draft
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...ta-Twins-Draft
That's crazy that only six guys from the 2009 draft are still in the organization. Wow!
Not sure what you mean by "there has been little minor league success" for a few of those guys taken after/around Gutierrez and Hunt:
- Jake Odorizzi has put up solid numbers in the minors and is still a top 100 BA prospect.
- Casey Kelly was a top-50 prospect this year, but looks to be having arm trouble now.
- Lonnie Chisenhall reached #25 on BA's list and while he doesn't project to be a star, he should be Cleveland's starting third baseman this year.
And those are just three of the guys I recognize.
Ah, that makes more sense.
Although those three guys were all 19 and under when drafted, so it's not really surprising they haven't appeared much in the majors yet. Would it be equally accurate to dismiss Aaron Hicks right now because he hasn't had much major league success yet? These high school guys -- particularly high school pitchers -- are on a different track than older college guys like Gutierrez and Hunt.
I'm willing to give the Twins a pass on Hunt because he was a top talent who fell late -- a decent gamble to take. But Gutierrez was about as big a bust as you can find -- a college closer should be about the "safest" draft pick there, and Gutierrez provided zero value in the pros. Heck, even "riskier" high school picks Odorizzi and Kelly have both been used as valuable trade chits in their short careers already (A-Gon, Greinke, Shields).
If you won't sign free agents that are big time, you need to be BETTER than the other teams at drafting and developing players, not as good as them. You can't get nothing out of those two college pitchers. Just a killer. Even when Hicks turns out to be good, it was a failed draft if you get nothing much out of the rest of the entire draft, imo. I know people won't agree with that. That said, Hunt was a decent risk to take, imo. Never liked the Gutteriez pick, much the same way I'm not a fan of them taking relievers last year.
It is funny, when I complain about them not getting starters later in the draft, people say "you can't expect that'. When I complain they pass on elite pitchers, people say "you can always find them later in the draft". One of those is not true.....
I don't think I ever said anything about dismissing Hicks, Odorizzi, Kelly, etc. I'm just saying that there is no way to know in the draft, especially once you get past the first half of the first round.
And, I would agree that Gutierrez and Hunt were busts. I don't think anyone would disagree. It's just not surprising or unusual or anything.
I really enjoy this type of writing. It's alot of fun to look back at the hits and misses. I have to agree with mike wants wins that in this area the Twins need to do better. I remember not many were impressed with the pick of Gutierrez, including me. It looked like a bust from the start. Alot of Twins fans were patient and waiting for him to breakout. Plus he had already had arm trouble. Seemed like to big a gamble for that slot in the draft. We have do better then that when we get a draft pick that high up. It's the only way we continue to be competitive. Hopefully we go for the best player again this year with the Number 4. Sure hoping Apel is available and Boros doesn't scare off the Twins management.
"I think this is a good illustration of how difficult the draft can be."
Drafts are difficult, but for most of this century the Twins made it more difficult by seemingly passing on high school pitchers early on. Obviously they are more boom or bust, but the reward can be so much better. Perhaps I'm off base but the perception has always been the Twins will take a safe college arm over HS kids with upside. Looking at the HS prospects the Twins passed on to take Wimmers in 2010 makes my stomach churn.
Water under the bridge though. I'm going to assume they learned their lesson considering where they took Berrios last year and Boyd the year previous.
Listen, I understand that point about the Twins not signing big free agent pitchers, and because of that they need to be better at the draft. It's a fair line of thinking. I just struggle with how realistic it can be. In a system where #1 (and 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, ...) overall picks don't make it all the time, I don't know that it's always realistic. They could make the absolutely perfect pick at the time, and two years later, some will be wondering how they could have taken the player. These are all people, not machines, and that element makes it what it is. Maybe it would be better to say that the Twins need to be more LUCKY than other teams when it comes to the draft if they're not going to sign the free agent pitchers?
Except they passed on HS arms like crazy to take college relievers last year......very risky play, imo.
If you pick a strategy, and they clearly have picked the strategy not to sign free agents, then you need to better, not just more lucky. You need to spend more on better coaching. You need to spend more on better nutrition and conditioning. You need to spend more on scouting. If all that doesn't work, you need to fire people until it does. It is a business. The Cardinals and Rays seem to draft and develop guys every year, that they either use or trade. It seems unlikely is it just luck.
And, if the only way your strategy will work is by being lucky, then you probably need to pick a different strategy, because relying on luck is not sustainable. That is, if it is not realistic to expect your strategy to work, you really, really need a new strategy.
Seth -- I just read your statement:
Often people like to look back and see which players were drafted after picks that didn’t work out. To the point, there has been little major league success for the players taken between Gutierrez at 27 and Jordan Lyles at 38
as somewhat of an excuse for the Twins draft, in that the players taken immediately after Gutierrez and Hunt haven't done much in the majors either. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you meant? Most of the other guys drafted in that range were much younger than Gutierrez and Hunt, several likely will stick in the majors in 2013 and beyond, and several have already provided good value to their drafting teams in trades even before reaching the majors.
My recollection is that Gutierrez was a suspect pick at the time -- definitely lower upside on him as a college closer, compared to most other picks in that range. The Twins were drafting conservatively, as they often do, and were maybe a little too complacent with their run of major league success at the time. Conservative drafts like Gutierrez certainly didn't help as their system starting emptying around this time and the big league club subsequently fell off the table in 2011.
I remember the consensus thought Hunt was a reasonable gamble in that draft range, still conservative enough for the Twins as an older college pitcher, but with some upside.
It's still too early to judge, but if Hicks becomes an outstanding player and Tomkin becomes a solid setup man, I'd call it a good draft I guess. I understand the argument that the Twins need to be good at drafting. My response is that they are, and their track record demonstrates this IF one bothers to make a COMPARATIVE judgment.
I have a different recollection of the scouting reports on Guttierrez. I seem to remember hearing that his sharp sinking fastball, clocked at 92-94, was already MLB ready, and that he needed to refine a secondary offering. And that illustrates the difficulty of being better than everyone else at this drafting business. I bet the scouting reports on him were practically interchangeable from team to team. Something tells me that, to be better than the next organization, you have to out-work them, not out-think them or tip the laptop upside down to get some new statistics.
BW, we just won't agree on that. No MIF for how long? No 3B for how long? Their starting OF last year and DH were at least 2 medium free agents. Their entire starting pitching staff this year, not one was drafted by the Twins, right? Diamond, Worley, Correia, Pelfry, ?....ok, maybe ? was drafted by them. I just don't see how someone can say they have been good at drafting, given the quality of the guys that have come up the last few years. But, I'm guessing we are going to disagree on this point, no matter what either of us types......
Kolten Wong - I read that he was ready to sign withthe Twins. But the Twins did't even give him an offer until the deadlIne.
Now, more recently, and in part because of the post-Target Field revenues, the story gets much much much better. You know their system is ranked as high as #3 (Law). Just possibly, is this because they're better at it than most these days? You know of the high-profile international guys: Sano, Arcia, Kepler, Polanco. Do you give them enough credit for this part of their track record?
But here's a more recent indicator: Sickels posted his top 150 prospects list. Now, if talent was evenly distributed, meaning all teams were almost equally adept (not factoring draft order), wouldn't each team have 5 prospects on the list? Why do the Twins have 9 prospects on it? Why does the rest of the AL Central have a total of 12 prospects, every one of them ranked lower than our top 3? And now, we signed the #7 and #22 ranked international prospects for this past year, Minier and Silva.
So, you can say the Twins are bad at drafting and development, and point to the fact that they don't have a draftee playing at SS, 2B, 3B, at least that meets with your approval. I look at these facts, and others, and draw a different conclusion. They may have been too average in the past, but I think they'r pretty good now.