03-15-2013, 11:03 PM #1
Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 3.0
You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...Projection-3-0
03-15-2013, 11:16 PM #2
I saw Pedro Hernandez pitching in the game on TV today. Not too bad. I don't think he is going to be with the Twins, but if they need an extra starter, he is an option (and he is lefty)
03-15-2013, 11:59 PM #3
People sure didn't like the Francisco Liriano trade at the time, but it's pretty clear that it was yet another great trade by Terry Ryan. Liriano continued his struggles with the White Sox and then left and went to the National League. In Escobar, the Twins have a utility player for the next five or six years, and possibly a long, lefty reliever for the next 6-7 years... pretty nice.
03-16-2013, 12:29 AM #4
03-16-2013, 12:52 AM #5
In the art of pitching, Cole DeVries has shown better mastery than Liam Hendriks, who has better stuff, but less consistency. Meanwhile I still think Sam Deduno could be one of the best late-blooming pitchers in the league. If he's finally found a way to throw his crazy fastball for strikes, he could really shut down some teams.
The Benson/Hicks competition is nonsense. Aaron Hicks clearly is the better ballplayer. Either send down Joe Benson or make him the fourth outfielder. Darrin Mastroianni is pretty good too, but with Hicks leading off, you want your other outfielders to have more pop. Benson can drive balls over the fence, while Masto is mainly a slap hitter. In any case, if Morneau gets traded mid-season, they'll just bring up whoever gets sent down now, and move Parms to 1B.
I haven't seen Escobar try to play catcher, but with so many mediocre arms on the staff, seems to me Gardy will want a third backstop that is more than an emergency fill-in. Past balls, bad throws and crappy handling of pitchers could lose more games than an average bat can make up for. If Butera's not on the opening day roster, I'll still be surprised. Who ya got that's better? We sent him to the Nationals for Matt Capps.
03-16-2013, 01:14 AM #6
03-16-2013, 01:47 AM #7
03-16-2013, 05:52 AM #8
03-16-2013, 07:12 AM #9
03-16-2013, 09:38 AM #10
Give it some time...
03-16-2013, 09:47 AM #11
1. I wouldn't be devasted if Hicks went down to Triple A. Keith Law suggested about 250 at Bats would be a good idea. I get the argument about bringing him up. I would rather be cautious in this case rather then agressive. Worse case scenario is you win 65 games with Joe Benson rather then 70 games with Aaron Hicks.
2. The deal with Liriano is Thrylos is right that he could pull a Loshe. Yet the problem is the Twins probably got all the return they were going to get for him. He was also a pending Free Agent. If Escobar or Hernadez provide any positive value over the next half-decade this trade's a win. Liriano had a long enough leash with the Twins.
03-16-2013, 09:51 AM #12
03-16-2013, 10:15 AM #13
This is a forum about the roster projections.
The White Sox and Twins made the deal. The TWins could (we don't know) get 13 years of service time and the White Sox got 2 months of bad pitching from Liriano. At that point, he became a free agent. So what Liriano does from this point on has nothing to do with the Twins/White Sox trade.
Everyone talks about how the last 2-3 weeks of spring training are more telling than the first 3 weeks. The Twins decided to stand by Benson due to his talent and upside rather than focus on his injury-plagued 2012 season. After missing all that time last year and not being able to do baseball activities all offseason, it's no surprise that he started slow. I still project Hicks to be the starter, but if Benson stays hot, makes contact, takes a few walks and plays defense, it's not completely over yet.
03-16-2013, 10:48 AM #14
I really see another year where the starting staff is in flux most of the season. We have 3 gimpy arms in Diamond, Pelfrey, and Worley. Our addition of Correria is to be an innings eater but his history would suggest he will be demoted to the bullpen at some point due to ineffectivess and Hendriks sent to AAA for more refinement. I haven't seen the improvement in Hendriks to warrant a spot in the rotation. Still no out pitch and very much suseptible to the long ball. A long look at Deduno, Hernandez, Walters and De Vries (a continued pleasand surprise) needs to be done yet this spring. My starters going North would be Worley, Pelfrey, Correria (only cuz I hafta), DeVries, Deduno. ( Diamond DL)
The bullpen isn't that hard to figure out. Perkins-closer. Burton-setup Duensing-LH specialist. Fien should be in as a 7th inning guy. Pressley wins a spot, you can always return him to the Sox later if he falters, Wood-paying him, so he comes North. So the final spot goes to either Roenicke, Robertson, Hernandez, or Burnett. Right now I'd go with Hernandez. LH has done well this spring. Robertson is to inconsistent. Burnett goes back to AAA with his option and poor pitching. Roenicke you pass through wavers and hope for the best.
03-16-2013, 10:50 AM #15
I have a hard time seeing Benson or Escobar on the major league roster as backups. While that maybe their ceilings, I don't think we can say that for sure, yet. They both need regular AB's and a chance to improve their games, if you believe either can be a major league regular. Having Escobar around as a backup to the utility man(Carroll) doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Benson almost certainly needs regular AB's at this point of his career to be productive. He wouldn't get that as the 5th OF and probably wouldn't as the 4th.
I think Butera makes the team. His presence doesn't take AB's from Mauer or Doumit, on the contrary, his presence or somebody like him, probably means those 2 get more AB's. If Butera takes a few AB's from some other backup, which is really the case, that isn't going to hurt the offense that much.
I think DeVries makes the team, either as the 5th starter or a long reliever. Although there are ways for Deduno to make the team, he probably begins in AAA. Burnett hasn't pitched himself to AAA, yet, but he better step it up. I think the Twins keep Pressly, his upside is probably higher than Roenicke or Wood and they can't keep all three.
I think Robertson goes to AAA and the Twins want to keep Hernandez starting, at least for now, so he goes to AAA as well.
As far as comparing MacPhail and Ryan. Ryan did a much better job getting his team to the postseason and having a competitive team year after year. Ryan was/is much better at building a farm system. MacPhail had 2 teams get to the postseason, neither of whom was among the top 10 teams in baseball in those years, by most measures. That those teams won was probably a greater testiment to Kelly's skill as a manager than MacPhail's at roster building. It was another example of getting hot and lucky in the postseason rather than having the best team in the postseason.
03-16-2013, 12:06 PM #16
I would really like to know how many times would a 3 rd catcher really be required? Is it 1 or 2 innings a year? It seems like a total waste of a bench spot to have a 3rd catcher that may be needed for an inning or 2 and can't hit. If Mauer or Doumit get hurt you can have a replacement up the next day. When you have a thin bench anyway it makes no sense!
03-16-2013, 12:09 PM #17
Deduno is intriguing.
His combination of groundball rate (58.3%) and infield fly ball rate (17%) are both among the highest rates for starting pitchers last year. It points to how difficult it is for batters to get good contact against him.
Where does he fit on a staff? Starter or reliever?
I would think that starting is the better role. The only way he can be successful as a starter would be if he can handle large pitch counts.
Can he be effective at 120+ pitches? Will he still get the same movement on his pitches to that point? Will he maintain enough command? Some pitchers maintain their effectiveness with large pitch counts.
Will he remain healthy with large pitch counts? He had Tommy John surgery in 2008.
I don't think there is another option. His command makes coming in as a middle reliever with runners on base difficult. As a starter, unless they are willing to extend him to large pitch counts, he will have a hard time going beyond 5 innings.
03-16-2013, 12:18 PM #18
Should Doumit get any regular time at catcher?
I hope the Twins will be paying attention to his defense. If it is as bad as some studies suggest, his bat at catcher can not make up for this deficiency. They had better be looking at the videos and pitch f/x. Steinbach had better be working with him towards improving his ability to frame pitches. If not, his only useful role is as DH/PH/emergency 3rd catcher.
I am not saying Butera is the answer. He does not fare as well defensively as you would expect from a guy who is limited with the bat. I don't think the Twins have an answer.
03-16-2013, 01:12 PM #19
I saw nothing while watching Doumit catch a ton last year taht told me that he shouldn't be catching. I don't think I'll ever be able to buy stats for framing pitches. I really don't. I think that if he isn't getting those close pitches to be called strikes, some of that has as much to do with inexperienced or wild pitchers that aren't going to get umps calls too.
Regarding Deduno. He's earned the right to be a starter, but I wouldn't have him ahead of De Vries or Hendriks at this point. The 40 man roster situation is also a factor at this point in the season.
03-16-2013, 01:20 PM #20
SF gave up a good package because AJ was a useful player entering his prime at a position that's starved for offense. It wasn't like they were getting sure-thing prospects in return, but they panned out better than prospects generally do.
The Mets ended up giving up less in their deal because they knew the Twins' hand was forced, and all of baseball knew Santana had one foot out the door the second he turned down Ryan's "competitive" 5/$100M offer. The prospects they got in return ended up being essentially useless during their Twins tenure, but making a deal was something Smith had to do given the circumstances.