Thread: Article: Position Analyis: First Base

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I think that Colabello will be more likely than Clement at this point...

Twins just added former Cardinal Curt Smith to start, most likely, at New Britain.

My hope for this is that Morneau pulls it together and Parmelee hits great and proves he's a first baseman, and the Twins trade Parmelee for another strong young arm and re-sign Justin to another long-term deal. Dudley Dooright belongs in the great white north!

It would really be nice if Morneau could pull it together and stay a Twin. Among all the negativity surrounding the Twins these past two seasons, I believe in Morneau. He will get it done this year.

In my view, the long term view is going to be:

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

In my view, the long term view is going to be:

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

I like Shane's analysis of this, but wonder if Willingham, Doumit and Parmelee would fetch a decent SS, 3B and SP. I also worry about trading these three players and taking the risk that Morneau gets injured again.

I am hoping that Morneau gets back to his MVP form. If the Twins are sellers at the trade deadline, I would think that a healthy Morneau might fetch a lot better prospect(s) than the other three combined. And if the Twins are anywhere near contending at the trade deadline, it seems to me that Morneau (and Willingham) should be virtually untouchable -- these are proven players who (along with Mauer) could carry the Twins to the wild card or better.

If Morneau plays the whole season with the Twins, and signs with another team in the off season, will the Twins get any compensation in the form of an extra draft pick?? If the answer is yes, I think thats what will happen. TR/Twins get something out of it and Justin ends up being the bad guy for going elsewhere - shades of Tori Hunter.

Dumaits not getting traded, they like him as a replacement for Mauer, keeps Mauer healthy and on the field.

Originally Posted by Blackjack

If Morneau plays the whole season with the Twins, and signs with another team in the off season, will the Twins get any compensation in the form of an extra draft pick?? If the answer is yes, I think thats what will happen.

They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

Fangrpahs has them as the 17th best 1B group.....they are not bullish on Morneau. Also, even if he is back, he's potentially past his prime. That said, I think he's going to have a very, very good year, and be traded. If not traded, I think he signs someplace else. I think this is our last shot to see him, which bums me out. He's a great player, and a great asset in the community.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

Well, maybe. If Justin OPSes at .800, he'll take the Twins' offer. If he OPSes at .850 or better, there's a chance another team will offer him enough money and years to sway him away from the Twins.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

They'd have to offer him a high dollar qualifying offer, which he probably doesn't turn down, since there's a good chance it would be significantly more than he'd get on the open market.

It'll be an interesting situation, and it's nice because it keeps the Twins from being forced to move Morneau at the deadline if he's playing well and they're out of it.

In the event that no one offers up what they're looking for, they can keep him and give him a qualifying offer during the offseason. He either turns it down to look for a multi-year deal, in which case the Twins move on with their plans and get an extra draft pick, or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms.

Of course, this is all predicated on Morneau having a good year, which is why his production this season is quite important to them.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

In my view, the long term view is going to be:

Morneau vs. Willingham, Parmelee, and Doumit.

I say that because we are talking about 1B/DH here. Willingham's days in left field are numbered, Doumit is the primary DH, and Parmelee is the "heir apparent."

Sano is coming within three years, and it is likely to be at 1B. Morneau could move to DH. It could mean, honestly, considering the trade return value between Morneau, on the one hand, and those other three, on the other hand. I would think that Willingham and Doumit could bring back big value at the deadline this year, and Parmelee can still be around at least into the offseason.

I was all for trading Morneau, but he is recovered from these injuries and is dominant again. The Twins could trade the other three for SS, 3B, and SP in some combo. They are going to be replaceable in Arcia, Benson, Herrmann, and Colabello.

Are you basing that off last season, or are you basing it off a handful of ST and WBC AB's?

I think the continued development this summer of our near-MLB OF prospects plays the biggest role in determining how they handle Morneau this season and next off-season if he's still around.

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

Are you basing that off last season, or are you basing it off a handful of ST and WBC AB's?

It can't be based on last season because he definitely wasn't "dominant". Therefore, I guess in this instance, "domiant" is 11 ABs in the WBC and 23 in Spring Training. Who knew?

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Well, maybe. If Justin OPSes at .800, he'll take the Twins' offer. If he OPSes at .850 or better, there's a chance another team will offer him enough money and years to sway him away from the Twins.

You'd think so, but LaRoche just OPS'ed .850 and had to sign for 2 years with his original team at less per annum than the qualifying $ amt. Morneau has had some better top-end years, but their career numbers aren't too far off.

Saying there's a chance is always a safe statement, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him return -- especially if there's a pick hanging over his head. I have a hard time picturing the Twins let him go if he has a strong/great year.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

or they get him on a ~12M one-year deal for 2014. I'd take him back on those terms.

I'm not sure what the exact calculations are that go into it, but wouldn't the qualifying offer amount likely go up from the $13M or whatever it was at this year? It does require him to have a good year to even take the chance on offering it, but if it's maybe going to be closer to $15-16M, is that an amount Morneau can possibly be worth on the far side of 30?

Really, unless he's playing at an absolute peak level again by the trade deadline, he needs to get moved for the best package possible. Morneau producing at 75% of his peak probably won't be worth risking that qualifying offer (leaving him most likely walking with no return), but may have value to a team with injury woes or weak production at 1B looking to push towards a playoff spot at the end of July.

Originally Posted by jay

I have a hard time picturing the Twins let him go if he has a strong/great year.

I should qualify that with 'assuming he's still here at the end of the season for some reason'. That would take the Twins in contention or else the more likely reality that he'll get traded after the break if he's having a good year.

I believe the qualifying offer at the end of the year (to get a draft pick) will be around $14 mill. If Morneau is still here (I hope he is traded at the deadline for SS/P and Parmalee at 1B and Arcia in RF) that is a lot of money to give him considering concussion history and age in 2014 (32). He would take it.

Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.