Thread: Article: Position Analyis: First Base

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.
I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

Statistics don't tell us much about the probability of Morneau having a good year, but the eye test does. He looks completely different than he did last spring.

Making him a qualifying offer of roughly $13M is intriguing. The risk is minimal for the Twins. Maybe he says yes and then gives you only $5M of value. Or he walks and fetches you a high draft choice. It puts the Twins in a good position: if they don't get overwhelmed by a trade deadline offer for either Parmelee or Morneau, they can sit tight.

Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.

I would take the qualifying offer risk, depending on how well he does during the season. We also will get a better idea of Parmelee after this year. So the Twins can afford NOT to deal Morneau and still retain him (or get a draft pick if he refuses). Or they can trade him. I think Morneau does have value as a long-term DH who can also play first, it just depends on the overall price. But a $13-15 million paycheck in 2014 is something the Twins could afford. Then we look at Morneau/Willingham/Doumit ALL coming off the books at that season's end.

The thought that the Twins will be able to resign Morneau to a long-term siginificantly less contract is probably nill, seeing what happened to lowballing Nathan, Cuddyer, Baker and even Kubel. Its a crapshoot for a player, but you have to look at what a team competitiveness is in the near future (yes, Cuddyer blew his choice).

Originally Posted by jokin

Except the trending imperative since 2010 has been to let pending FAs walk or trade for little in return (Liriano) and cut payroll. As intriguing as it might be, I doubt playing QO poker with Morneau is a game that Ryan is willing/able to participate in.

We complain about getting little in return for Liriano. We got something., The White Sox got nothing. We could've kept him and had him walk. Who knows if Escobar will be the 3-4 year utility guy who has one great year as a fill-in when a middle infielder goes down. Hernandez may develop into a 5th starter or a good long man shades of Duensing. But we got two players for a guy who was not going to resign with the Twins for THEIR price.

Originally Posted by jokin

It can't be based on last season because he definitely wasn't "dominant". Therefore, I guess in this instance, "domiant" is 11 ABs in the WBC and 23 in Spring Training. Who knew?

First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

So stop.

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

I'd say the risk is that you pay him $13 million and then he gets another concussion and gives you zero production.
I'd move him for any halfway decent prospect they can at the deadline.

There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer.

But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

I would offer it to him, but depending on that whole Napoli-Ortiz situation, I would be willing to bet that the Red Sox would throw some years at him. Victorino+ money.

I think he hits well and gets traded for something nice. The real question is whether the Twins try to bring him back. I certainly would if he's past his issues, but I'm a fan and Morneau is my favorite player.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

First, I omitted an "if" in there, so that's my bad.

Second, are you two not aware of his numbers in July and August of last year? His OPS was .850 and he was finally starting to hit lefties even minimally at that time. He has had a "regular" offseason again, etc. etc.

So stop.

I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it.
There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out.
If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt.
He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year.

That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

There's a risk with any player that he'll get hurt and give you no production for the cost. Could happen with Mauer. Basically has happened with Mauer.

But with Morneau, it'd be a one-year deal and they're going to have loads to payroll flexibility next year, so it doesn't seem like a terrible risk to me, even if you have to overpay a bit. Especially if he's coming off a big season.

That's a false equivalence. Certain players carry MORE risk than other players.
Sure any player could get a concussion at any time, but a guy with half a dozen (at least) already is much more risky than a guy who hasnt had any.

I just dont see Morneau as part of the long term of this team. In that case, why even bother with the risk? The only way he's worth the $14 million qualifying offer is if he's having a great year, and if that is the case, then we shouldnt have any problem getting a decent prospect at the deadline.
Parmalee can move to 1st, and Arcia gets called up to play RF.

The money is irrelevant in the next couple seasons. They've got most of the guys they want for the coming four or five years and they won't cost anything. Staggering the arb, as discussed above, makes very good sense because it's so easy to do and simplifies life down the road. Guys that are progressing nicely in Roch or NB can stay there, guys that have nothing at all to prove can come up, and anyone not ready can stay out of the discussion. There really isn't much to play for this year and probably even next, so Ryan will use the calendar.

Morneau gets an offer from MN if he's here, period. If he's playing well it'll be a two or three year deal, and if he isn't it'll be a qualifying offer. But the real decision point is earlier: if he's playing average or below by July they'll dump him at the deadline just to free the roster spot for another kid (and avoid the discussion in the off-season.)

One other thing: upstream discussions about his age make zero sense for a 32 year old first baseman. If you want to discuss risk talk about his concussions, but 32 is still prime for most positions these days, and doubly so at the corners.

Originally Posted by Cris E

The money is irrelevant in the next couple seasons. They've got most of the guys they want for the coming four or five years and they won't cost anything. Staggering the arb, as discussed above, makes very good sense because it's so easy to do and simplifies life down the road. Guys that are progressing nicely in Roch or NB can stay there, guys that have nothing at all to prove can come up, and anyone not ready can stay out of the discussion. There really isn't much to play for this year and probably even next, so Ryan will use the calendar.

Morneau gets an offer from MN if he's here, period. If he's playing well it'll be a two or three year deal, and if he isn't it'll be a qualifying offer. But the real decision point is earlier: if he's playing average or below by July they'll dump him at the deadline just to free the roster spot for another kid (and avoid the discussion in the off-season.)

One other thing: upstream discussions about his age make zero sense for a 32 year old first baseman. If you want to discuss risk talk about his concussions, but 32 is still prime for most positions these days, and doubly so at the corners.

Why would they offer him $14 million dollars if he's not playing well?
Out of all the possible scenarios discussed in this thread I think that one would probably be the worst.

One article on prime ages refutes your belief of 32:
Baseball Prospectus | How Do Baseball Players Age?

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

I'm not a big fan of picking out 2 months of a full season. Every player in baseball has months where they hit well above their final OPS, as well as months they hit well below it.
There is a reason that baseball uses such a long season, its a "fluky" enough game that it takes a large sample size to even out.
If it were a consistent trend where it gradually improved each month from April through September, then I could consider that he was shaking off the rust, but it wasnt.
He was terrible in April, then hit the cover off the ball in May, then terrible again in June, then pretty good in July and August, then terrible again in Sept., or basically the same type of monthly splits that I would predict you'd find from any other league average first baseman last year.

That said, I do think he's going to have a better year this year. I think confidence goes a long way in baseball, and I'm sure he's more confident than he was this time of year. But, its based on gut feeling and not something I think you can cherry pick random splits from last year to predict.

But this isn't a normal player. This was someone who on opening day was doubting if he was capable of playing with his injuries. The entire offseason last year was cloudy for him. Pre-injury he was having a ridiculous 2010. He showed signs of a return while still dealing with injuries in the second half of the season (including, most importantly, September). I am not sure what is really to dispute here.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

But this isn't a normal player. This was someone who on opening day was doubting if he was capable of playing with his injuries. The entire offseason last year was cloudy for him. Pre-injury he was having a ridiculous 2010. He showed signs of a return while still dealing with injuries in the second half of the season (including, most importantly, September). I am not sure what is really to dispute here.

The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed?
Well I guess that settles that.

BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.

Originally Posted by Mr. Brooks

The statement, "Justin Morneau is back to being a dominant hitter" is not something that can be disputed?
Well I guess that settles that.

BTW: Morneau was terrible in September, he could not have been worse.

First, AGAIN, I already said that I omitted an "if" right before that . But second, what isn't to be disputed is that you cannot make some general claim about ballplayers having hot streaks when this particular circumstance involves a series of injuries and in particular a bizarre one relating to concussions. The farther removed from that, the better the outcome. I believe he was injured again in September. Maybe I am wrong about that (you know, "day-to-day" nonsense from the Twins).

For the record, I expect a minimum of .850 OPS from him this year if he remains healthy.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

First, AGAIN, I already said that I omitted an "if" right before that . But second, what isn't to be disputed is that you cannot make some general claim about ballplayers having hot streaks when this particular circumstance involves a series of injuries and in particular a bizarre one relating to concussions. The farther removed from that, the better the outcome. I believe he was injured again in September. Maybe I am wrong about that (you know, "day-to-day" nonsense from the Twins).

Just like I cant say for certain that its just randomness over a long season, you also cant say for sure that its absolutely a trend that shows he was improving and will therefore continue.
Either one would be absurd. Thats kinda what I was getting at originally.

One reason I tend to believe it was just randomness and not some trend, is that his babip was 40 points above his career norm over those 2 months. It was not his slugging that improved in those 2 months, it was his AVG and OBP. If you regress his babip to his career norm then those 2 months suddenly look just like the rest.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

For the record, I expect a minimum of .850 OPS from him this year if he remains healthy.

I suppose if you are going to go on record I will too.
I'm seeing an OPS in the .795 to .810 range this year from Justin.