Reusse is right. Some fans will be angry regardless of any decision the Twins make. This is a pretty easy "told you so. "
In that previous thread, I surmised that it would be tough to think they would replace Butera on the roster with "some pop" because Doumit still figures to be the most common DH. But another player that can catch in a pinch (Escobar) would do the trick also, maybe.
I thought I was clear but in case I wasn't... To Clarify... If I was in charge... I wouldn't be as concerned about having a third player who can play the catcher position on the roster.
However... Since it seems to be important to Gardy... I think a better solution would be to train some players for emergency fill in at the position for in game injury and therefore having a roster spot available for a big bench bat.
I also believe that since Gardy has had this worry of running out of catchers during the course of a game for quite some time now. The Escobar training makes perfect sense even if I believe that the need for Escobar doesn't make sense overall.
I'm also thinking that since Gardy has been here awhile.
I think it's possible that the organization has made a mistake not trying to devolop an Escobar or two or three over the past decade. Just working with Hermann is short sighted in my opinion in consideration of what Gardy has been requiring over the years. The organization should have been planning for this scenerio in some way.
Arguing weather Gardy should feel that way... Isn't what I'm discussing. I'm trying to discuss under what seems to be Gardy's preference... Which is more realistic than Gardy changing his mindset on the subject.
The reason to carry a 3rd catcher should have nothing to do with a potential injury occurring during a game.
The reason to carry a catcher is if he is going to be included in the regular catching rotation. Mauer shouldn't catch >100 games this year. 72 last year. Do you want Doumit behind the plate for 60-100 games? He's awful at catching and butera is awful at hitting. Pick your poison. I think the board would unanimously pick Doumit and so would I but it really comes down to how many games Mauer catches.
Everything we've read from Gardy this offseason has been he wants more pop off the bench. He knows that Butera isn't doing him any good when the team is down 4-1 going into the 6th every day.
Not to beat the Butera thing into the ground, but it seems that last year the approach was reasonable:
1) Start the year without him
2) Call him up when Mauer is banged up (fulfilling the "just a phone call away" strategy) and
3) Keep him because, really, why the hell not? It's not like he was keeping a great pinch-hiter off the roster.
But this could be different. I'd love to see a real pinch-hitter added IF they can identify one or bring one in. I don't know if Colabello qualifies or not. Thome certainly would. Then, when Mauer gets banged up and needs to sit for a while, bring up Butera and send down Escobar.
As far as team context and what Gardy and TR want... Who knows... I'm sure there is a reason for everything.
The only thing I know is that very rarely does any other team carry 3 catchers. The Twins have been doing it... and the Tigers might do it this year with V-Mart manning the DH spot. The Mariners may be another team to watch with Jesus Montero doing DH work.
To me it just makes sense to experiment with Escobar. Hopefully he will never play back there because Mauer and Doumit stay healthy.
I'd rather have a better bench bat than a 3rd Catcher.
Mauer is healthier than he's been since 2009, and healthier at this stage of the season for "as long as I can remember" according to Joe. So there's less concern about him catching five times a week than in past years. Couple that with Gardy's stated desire to get a real bat on the bench, and this move makes perfect sense. The question, then, is who? My money is on Boggs, but Ramirez has a shot as well.
Toushay about the 2005 team
This is a good but old BP article on the topic:
and further on, this:Quote:
Considering only pinch hitting situations in which the player being replaced is not a pitcher, our worst fears appear to be confirmed. In 2005, the average player being replaced hit .250/.315/.392, and the average pinch hitter had season stats of .257/.322/.402. So, on the surface, managers are bringing in superior hitters to help the offense. However, the pinch hitters averaged just .224/.306/.328 in these situations, which is significantly worse than the season averages of the players they were replacing.
1 run per 60 PAs on average - when replacing a lefty with a righty, or vice versa.Quote:
The remaining 9025 pinch hit chances have been broken into those that created a platoon advantage (i.e., a switch hitter or lefty replacing a righty when facing a RHP, or vice versa), and the rest. Let's first look at the moves designed to create a platoon advantage, which accounts for 78% of these chances. On average, the model predicts a modest improvement of 19 points in wOBA for the pinch hitter, compared with the player he is replacing. Again, this is less than what one would expect if ignoring the "pinch hitting penalty," but it still amounts to an extra run being created every 60 or so times that such a move is made.
To put that in perspective, the Twins averaged 70 PH ABs since 2010 (unfortunately ESPN's PH tracker doesn't track walks and PAs). Call it 100 PH PAs on average. Assume Gardy is doing a LHB-RHB or RHB-LHB swap 90% of the time (which would be difficult to do if he is replacing a switch-hitter, eg. Florimon), and you have around 1.8 runs gained in those situations.
Further on, the BP author writes that in the 20% (10% in AL) of PH appearances where a PH replaces a same-handed hitter, the PHer can be expecte to perform worse than the player he's replacing around a third of the time (after accounting for the PH penalty). But, there's still a small gain overall.
So, based on this, we're looking at something like 2 whole runs over the course of a hundred PH PAs in a year, as an estimate. An argument could definitely be made that there about a hundred ways to better use that 25th roster spot besides carrying a Colabello or even a Thome.
So..... why again did the Twins offer arbitration to Butera and doubled his salary, instead of signing him to a MiLB contact (which is what he deserves?)