Thread: Article: Samuel Deduno showing progress in World Baseball Classic

Originally Posted by h2oface

If Deduno didn't win a spot on the starting rotation after what he did to the American team line up tonight......... the decision people aren't paying attention.

But, but, what about the 40-man roster connundrum...? They might have to expose Swarzak or something..../s

If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

Originally Posted by Brad Swanson

If Correia and Deduno each threw 200 innings, I guarantee Correia would end with a better ERA.

Considering Correia has yet to throw 200 innings in a season, and last year Deduno averaged 89 pitches per start which amounted to only just above 5 innings per start, I think you may have constructed a pretty safe bet for yourself in 2013-14 with that "if" clause, my brother.

89 pitches in just over 5 innings! If Kevin Slowey did that, everyone would be calling for his books!

I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere.

As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small.

When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6.

I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012:

Innings
Correia - 79.2
Deduno - 73.2

ERA
Correia - 4.07
Deduno - 4.40

FIP
Correia - 3.47
Deduno - 5.28

K%
Correia - 15.8%
Deduno - 16.6%

Starts
Correia - 12
Deduno - 14

Is this the only factor we are focusing on:

Salary
Correia - 5 mil
Deduno - League Min

If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

Adjust those stats for league and Deduno looks like the better pitcher, if only by a hair (other than the huge discrepancy in FIP). Yikes.

Originally Posted by Brad Swanson

I'll try to add something of value to this thread now. My issue with the "effectively wild" label, is that I don't see the effective part anywhere.

As pointed out earlier, he barely averaged over 5 innings per start. He didn't strike many batters out and his strand rate was 77%, which is almost certain to drop. I say that not only because it is an unnaturally high number for the league, but it is high for Deduno, if you look at his minor league numbers. He does get a good deal of ground balls and pop ups, but the sample is extremely small.

When Deduno actually was able to lower his walk rate, his strikeout rate dropped even more. I'm also not even sure the ground ball rate matters. His GB% was over 60% last September/October, and his ERA was over 6.

I just find it odd that we (as a fanbase) seem to be so low on Kevin Correia and so high on Sam Deduno. I can find a whole mess of great Kevin Correia starts, many from last season. In fact, Correia was a better pitcher in the second half of 2012:

Innings
Correia - 79.2
Deduno - 73.2

ERA
Correia - 4.07
Deduno - 4.40

FIP
Correia - 3.47
Deduno - 5.28

K%
Correia - 15.8%
Deduno - 16.6%

Starts
Correia - 12
Deduno - 14

Is this the only factor we are focusing on:

Salary
Correia - 5 mil
Deduno - League Min

If so, I guess I can understand. However, I don't think the wide range in opinions adds up to 4.5 mil.

I agree with you about Correia... I think he has been pre-attacked by some. If you look at his performance start by start last year... It's not overwhelming but its decent and an improvement over what we were throwing outside of Diamond last year.

The 2nd year is my problem but if that's what it took... It's what it took.

On Deduno... I am high on Deduno (that sounds like it came from Cheech and Chong). It's purely from a stuff stand point. If he can harness that movement... He can be a plus pitcher easy... I just don't know if he can cuz he's getting long in the tooth.

As dominating as he was tonight (which says a lot)... That breaking pitch was money... his fastball had a hard sink to it... but he created his own jams as well and that says a lot. He kept missing the strike zone when Bloomquist was trying to give up an out with a bunt and that says a lot.

I remain hopeful that he will nail his mechanics down... Get more comfortable in his skin... Trust his stuff and go to work. If he does... He will be a big value. I think it can happen.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I agree with you about Correia... I think he has been pre-attacked by some. If you look at his performance start by start last year... It's not overwhelming but its decent and an improvement over what we were throwing outside of Diamond last year.

Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

He's better than his numbers. -- Terry Ryan

Watching Deduno pitch tonight confirmed to me that he has a very high upside, but he could also be a disaster. Assuming that the Twins are probably not going to be contenders this year, I hope that Deduno gets a generous opportunity to prove himself.

It seems to me that Deduno looked significantly better tonight than he did last year. Do you agree?

Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Deduno and DeVries are both equal to or better than Correia. For 1/9 the cost. Full stop.

I think that this is probably correct, but I have some doubts. First, maybe the Twins see potential in Correia that we don't see and maybe Correia will surprise us to the upside. Second, DeVries and Deduno are somewhat unproven.

First of all, the WBC is a small sample size. He got pretty lucky IMO. The USA chased a log of balls out of the zone and helped him get out of trouble. I'm disappointed by the poor AB's of the USA in the WBC. For all the hate MN fans give Joe Mauer, he's taken the best AB's and delivered in some tough spots.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

For all the hate MN fans give Joe Mauer, he's taken the best AB's and delivered in some tough spots.

Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

I wonder how much better Deduno would have done last night if Mauer hadn't been on the team to give them the full report on him.

The biggest thing last year that I noticed is that while he walked a lot of guys, the number of those walks that came around to score was surprisingly low. Not sure what, if any, stat would measure that. His shorter outings often seemed more because he drove his pitch count up because of the walks, rather than that he was actually pitching poorly.

For me, walking a lot of batters is pitching poorly. He may have stranded a lot of those runners, but he may not strand them at such a high rate next season. He was at 77% last season, which is very high. That isn't to say he can't sustain it, but it is much higher than his minor league strand rates.

If his strand rate is a skill and not statistical noise, he could potentially keep up his "good" results. However, there are roughly 15 pitchers from the last 50 years with a walk rate as high as Deduno's. None achieved any level of sustained success. Those with the most success had much higher strikeout rates. Here is the list (at least 200 innings pitched):

Name K% BB% Mitch Williams 21.20% 17.50% Ken Wright 17.10% 17.00% Brian Bruney 21.30% 15.80% Carlos Marmol 30.10% 15.50% John D'Acquisto 17.10% 15.50% Mark Clear 22.30% 15.30% Deduno 16.40% 15.30% Doug Creek 22.20% 15.10% Jose DeJesus 14.60% 15.00% Renyel Pinto 21.90% 15.00% Dan Warthen 16.70% 14.80% Derrick Turnbow 23.40% 14.80% Ed Correa 20.40% 14.80% John Parrish 17.60% 14.80%

Here's a question. How long would GardyAndy let Deduno get away with that leg sweep if he were pitching with the Twins?

Originally Posted by glunn

I think that this is probably correct, but I have some doubts. First, maybe the Twins see potential in Correia that we don't see and maybe Correia will surprise us to the upside. Second, DeVries and Deduno are somewhat unproven.

I would think that a 32 year old with 1000 career innings doesnt have much potential or upside at this point.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Anyone who hates on Joe Mauer doesn't understand the game of baseball. That's all there is to it. The guy has one of the best approaches in baseball, period.

I said this on Twitter last night while watching the game, and it bears repeating: We often lose perspective on Mauer with all the local noise, but the fact that Torre has him batting fourth -- in this lineup -- says a lot about his reputation around the league as a hitter. And he has delivered, taking consistently better at-bats than anyone else in this star-laden group.

Regarding Deduno... he's the rare pitcher who is 29 but still has intriguing upside. His style is unconventional, but so was Dickey's when he came through the Twins' organization as a 34-year-old. Dickey was trying to figure out a hard knuckleball and it took him quite a while to master; Deduno's stuff, which darts all over the zone, has been likened to knucklers by some catchers. Could he be a late-bloomer in the same vein? I'd like to give him an extended chance to find out, if the alternatives are guys like Cole De Vries.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Except that once you adjust for league, Correia isn't really much better (if at all). He's going to strike out less batters in the AL. He's going to walk more batters. He's going to give up more hits. His ERA will almost surely inflate. Looking at his NL numbers and expecting them to carry into 2013 is unrealistic.

Exactly...and ERA+ covers this. His ERA+ last year was 88 and that's the best it's been over the last 3 years.