Thread: Hicks - Hunter comparison

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

Wow. That would make an interesting blog post. Or a neat thread.

To be fair the league AVG OBP the last 3 years is about .322. In 1999-2000 it was .345

But still you think maybe the Giants should have signed Becker in 2001 and had him leadoff in front of Bonds 73 homeruns instead of having Marvin Benard (.320 OBP) or Armando Rios (.332).

Yeah, I remember looking at Rich Becker's numbers a couple of years ago and thought that he would be much more appreciated now than he was in the mid-to-late '90s. He was a walk machine. He also struckout a ton.

And, to answer the question, will all toolsy outfielders in the Twins system be compared to Torii Hunter? Yes, of course. In the same way that all strike-throwing pitchers who top out at 91 yet put up good numbers will be compared to Brad Radke.

But, I would say that in terms of prospect status, Hicks and for sure Buxton are much more highly thought of prospects.

Assuming the Cube's assessments are close to accurate, how is Hicks going to out-walk Beltran Patience of 94 when Hicks is a 71?

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

And, to answer the question, will all toolsy outfielders in the Twins system be compared to Torii Hunter? Yes, of course. In the same way that all strike-throwing pitchers who top out at 91 yet put up good numbers will be compared to Brad Radke.

And that sums up my complaint with the Hunter comparison.

Originally Posted by Snortwood

Assuming the Cube's assessments are close to accurate, how is Hicks going to out-walk Beltran Patience of 94 when Hicks is a 71?

Other way 'round. Beltran 71, Hicks 94. For what they're worth.

Originally Posted by worm33

Yes, Rich Becker is a much better comp for Hicks then Hunter.

I hate to be a stickler, but we should really refer to him by his full name. Richard Godhard Becker. Thanks.

Originally Posted by UCLA_YANKEE_COLA

I hate to be a stickler, but we should really refer to him by his full name. Richard Godhard Becker. Thanks.

Thankfully, his name was never Twinkified down to 'Beckie'.

Not to be a killjoy, but I have to second the poster who stressed that Hunter was a late bloomer. You can't project Hicks based on Hunter alone. There are probably a hundred guys in every age cohort that post similar minor league stat lines to Hunter. Only a very small number of them develop at AAA and in the majors like Hunter did. You have to compare Hicks to all of those guys, and consider all of those potential outcomes. (Although Hicks would probably have a very different set of comparables, based on walk rate.)

I would be curious to see what ZiPS would say about Hicks' career potential right now, but I'd give him rough outcome distribution like this: 50% bust potential (below average major leaguer), 30% average major leaguer, 20% above average (Hunter territory). And that's probably very favorable to Hicks, before we see whether he can continue his trends from 2012.

On the radio yesterday, Dick Bremer compared Hicks to Andrew McCutchen. Another bit of a late bloomer. I would put the odds of Hicks ever posting a season like McCutchen's 2012 at maybe 5%? (Of course, McCutchen probably won't post another season like that either!)

How many guys have we seen compared to Roberto Clemente, just because Clemente didn't become a star until his 6th major league season? I think Delmon Young even got compared to Clemente for awhile because of their ages and "similar stats".

Comparisons are definitely fun, but it's important not to lose sight of the basic facts. Hicks posted a solid all-around season at AA last year after a few disappointing years. For some guys, that's their peak; for a special few, it's part of an improving trend.

Looking at spring stats, interesting to note that Hicks has only walked 1 time in 34 PA. That worries me a bit -- I want to see that OBP translating to higher competition, that's going to be key to his potential MLB success.

Rich Becker is actually a really good comp for Hicks right now. And as a reality check, his career might be Hicks' most likely "good" outcome, at this point (although injuries certainly affected Becker).

Much is made of the Twins "passing the torch" in CF, from Puckett to Hunter to Span, but it's interesting that none of the three projected as stars in the minors.

Originally Posted by spycake

Looking at spring stats, interesting to note that Hicks has only walked 1 time in 34 PA. That worries me a bit -- I want to see that OBP translating to higher competition, that's going to be key to his potential MLB success.

That's not uncommon early in spring, as pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs over the plate and hitters are looking to get their timing down and make good contact.

Plate discipline is something I completely ignore in ST.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

That's not uncommon early in spring, as pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs over the plate and hitters are looking to get their timing down and make good contact.

Plate discipline is something I completely ignore in ST.

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible.

But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even?

Yeah, silly me.

Originally Posted by spycake

Comparisons are definitely fun, but it's important not to lose sight of the basic facts. Hicks posted a solid all-around season at AA last year after a few disappointing years. For some guys, that's their peak; for a special few, it's part of an improving trend.

+1. Just like I get suspicious as soon as I hear any pitcher being compared to Tom Glavine.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

+1. Just like I get suspicious as soon as I hear any pitcher being compared to Tom Glavine.

My personal favorite is Maddux.

Because we all know how often guys with his ability, command, and brains come through baseball.

*rolls eyes*

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

That's not uncommon early in spring, as pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs over the plate and hitters are looking to get their timing down and make good contact.

Plate discipline is something I completely ignore in ST.

Just looking at BB-Ref's spring training stats (an awesome new feature there, by the way), so far this spring pitchers are posting cumulative 3.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 rates. Here's how that compares with past seasons:

SEASON	BB/9	K/9
2013 ST	3.4	7.1
2012	3.1	7.6
2011	3.1	7.1
2010	3.3	7.1
2009	3.5	7.0
2008	3.4	6.8

It would obviously be interesting to see how past spring training rates compared with the following seasons, but this suggests overall rates aren't too out of line in the exhibition season.

In any case, Hicks' sample is quite small, so it may not be terribly meaningful anyway. Just something to keep an eye on, especially as the games get a little more "real" further into the exhibition schedule.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

My personal favorite is Maddux.

I'd like to see more pitchers compared to Maddux, fashion-wise.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible.

But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even?

Yeah, silly me.

Over aggressive much?

Yeah, there's a chance that Hicks is free-swinging a bit. On the other hand, he's absolutely raking against ST pitchers.

I don't think a guy is "pressing" when he's OPSing at 1.287 in ST.

I also don't think ST numbers are indicative of much of anything, whether it's plate discipline, average, slugging, or whatever.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible.

But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even?

Yeah, silly me.

That was an awful lot of sarcasm and snark expended making a horrible point. "Overly aggressive"? He's been the best hitter on the team. The dude is taking long at-bats and laying off bad pitches, it's not like he's swinging at everything. Your rant comes off as uninformed.