Thread: Hicks - Hunter comparison

Originally Posted by Kobs

Both have a very urban playing style.

Holy crap, my Snark-O-Meter just pegged at 11.

Big fan of Hicks. I was having doubts early last year, but am totally back on the bandwagon at this point. I look forward to seeing him for the next few years. If he turns out to be as good as Hunter, we should all be happy.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Holy crap, my Snark-O-Meter just pegged at 11.

Yup.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Big fan of Hicks. I was having doubts early last year, but am totally back on the bandwagon at this point. I look forward to seeing him for the next few years. If he turns out to be as good as Hunter, we should all be happy.

We'd all be happy with that, I think.

On the other hand, there are reasons to think he might be better than Hunter.

It's a bad comparison all-around. Hicks is a switch-hitter, Hunter is not. Hicks has patience, Hunter did not. Hicks had several very good years in the lower minors, Hunter did not. Hicks hasn't hit for average since rookie ball, Hunter came to prominence by hitting .337 and then .368 in AAA. Hicks strikes out .9 times a game, Hunter struck out around .7 times per game.

Other than position and skin color, there's really nothing all that comparable about the two players.

Agreed, Brock...but I do think they have range and good arms in common, Hicks has more arm, I can't say about range for sure.

As hitters, they strike me as having almost nothing in common in terms of approach. I agree, he could be better than Hunter, I was just stating that if he's just as good as Hunter, I'd be thrilled.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Agreed, Brock...but I do think they have range and good arms in common, Hicks has more arm, I can't say about range for sure.

As hitters, they strike me as having almost nothing in common in terms of approach. I agree, he could be better than Hunter, I was just stating that if he's just as good as Hunter, I'd be thrilled.

Defensively, I suppose they're comparable. *shrugs*

My statement wasn't geared so much at you as the original poster. The comparison is a bad one because offensively, they're not even close to the same player.

But I think all of us would be happy if Hicks performed on the level of Hunter... But if he does, he'll do it in a completely different way. It still means the comparison is a bad one.

Agreed on that, and I knew you were not talking to me specifically.....man, this call at work is boring.....

I just compared their minor league careers. For those that are interested:

Differences
Hunter moved up the ladder quicker, though he stalled out in AA for parts of three years. Hicks repeated Low A.
Hunter never showed Hicks speed and stolen base numbers.
Hicks is far more patient than Hunter ever was, both in a good way and a bad way. At comparable ages, each year Hicks had roughly 50-100% higher strikeout numbers and 100-200% higher walk numbers.
Hunter was never a highly acclaimed national prospect. He only appeared on the BA Top 100 list once, at #79.

Similarities
Both were very fast CFers, showing a little mix of power and speed, but....
Neither showed much power. Hunter topped out at 10 HR in a year prior to his promotion.
About the same overall batting average.
Both really achieved significant time in the majors when they turned 23 (or so I presume with Hicks this year.)

So achievement-wise in the minors, they are pretty similar, but they seem like they have quite different tool sets to get there. It's also worth noting that Hunter struggled that first year in the majors, getting only 384 AB and hitting just .255 with a 689 OPS. And the next year he spent a lot of time in AAA. It wasn't until his 25-year-old year that he really broke out.

I think Hicks best comp as a hitter is Milton Bradley. Prolly a better person though

Point number 1: Sample size much? This was one game. One good game, but seriously this may be the best game of his career. One game should not make a decision on where he ends up.

Point number 2: I'm not sure about the Hicks/Hunter comparrison, and to be honest, any Hunter comparrison is dangerous. Hunter was a late bloomer. That rarely happens. Hicks could do it, yes... and that's far more likely given that they are both hitting the bigs at a very young age, but to project that type of improvement on Hicks would hardly be fair to him. Not to mention the fact that their hitting styles are nothing alike.

Originally Posted by diehardtwinsfan

Point number 1: Sample size much? This was one game. One good game, but seriously this may be the best game of his career. One game should not make a decision on where he ends up.

Point number 2: I'm not sure about the Hicks/Hunter comparrison, and to be honest, any Hunter comparrison is dangerous. Hunter was a late bloomer. That rarely happens. Hicks could do it, yes... and that's far more likely given that they are both hitting the bigs at a very young age, but to project that type of improvement on Hicks would hardly be fair to him. Not to mention the fact that their hitting styles are nothing alike.

I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that way back a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career, albeit in his own style in producing the numbers? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper (sans the delayed call-up). If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks, just as they did with Hunter.

The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what the OP has practically deemed as the gospel outcome. He also failed to note Hicks' unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2).

FWIW: Hunter's first-year slash line was .255/.309/380/.689 (his BABIP dropped dramatically to .289):

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails...71&position=OF

Hunter provided far more than statistics. He was the rock of the OF and permitted pitchers to challenge hitters because of his outstanding defense. When Hunter stole a base--it came at a time when it was really useful--often late in close games. If Hicks becomes that CF, the Twins will be really lucky.

Do a fantasy baseball draft, and then tell me what spring training means to you. I bet Hicks move up 100 places on draft sheets yesterday. you will be reading the news on every player daily then.

Originally Posted by Top Gun

Do a fantasy baseball draft, and then tell me what spring training means to you. I bet Hicks move up 100 places on draft sheets yesterday. you will be reading the news on every player daily then.

Oh, boy.

I just read something the other day that compared Buxton to Hunter. Is it safe to say that every toolsy CF'er will be comped to Hunter?

Maybe if we're desperate for a twins CF comp for Hicks, we should start thinking Player B to keep expectations in line. He was a switch hitter who struggled from one side (albeit RH), had good plate discipline, some pop, and contact issues:

Hicks: AA age 22. 472 AB .286/.384/.460 79 BB 116K 13HR 32SB 11CS

Player B: AA age 21 516 AB .287/.398/.450 94 BB 117K 15HR 29SB 7CS

B was a third rounder who was less highly regarded than Hicks but who marched through the minors without a level repeat. Half season of AAA and midseason call up at 22. 98 AB .265/.351/.327 before knee injury ended season. Struggled following year in 392 mlb AB's posting .232/.303/.296. Put it together at age 24, 525 AB .291/.372/.434 12HR 19SB 5CS as the Twins CF in 1996...

I can only hope that Hicks doesn't turn out to be "Player B". I'd gladly take his 1996 season for a couple of years, but hopefully Hicks improves beyond that and doesn't fall flat on his face like Player B. If so, Buxton had better develop in a hurry.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

Maybe if we're desperate for a twins CF comp for Hicks, we should start thinking Player B to keep expectations in line. He was a switch hitter who struggled from one side (albeit RH), had good plate discipline, some pop, and contact issues:

Hicks: AA age 22. 472 AB .286/.384/.460 79 BB 116K 13HR 32SB 11CS

Player B: AA age 21 516 AB .287/.398/.450 94 BB 117K 15HR 29SB 7CS

B was a third rounder who was less highly regarded than Hicks but who marched through the minors without a level repeat. Half season of AAA and midseason call up at 22. 98 AB .265/.351/.327 before knee injury ended season. Struggled following year in 392 mlb AB's posting .232/.303/.296. Put it together at age 24, 525 AB .291/.372/.434 12HR 19SB 5CS as the Twins CF in 1996...

Yes, Rich Becker is a much better comp for Hicks then Hunter.

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

I can only hope that Hicks doesn't turn out to be "Player B". I'd gladly take his 1996 season for a couple of years, but hopefully Hicks improves beyond that and doesn't fall flat on his face like Player B. If so, Buxton had better develop in a hurry.

Becker was well ahead of his time. Amazing that his last 2 years in the major leagues he posted the following lines...

1999: 327 AB 258/395/371
2000: 357 AB 242/384/375

His last 684 AB in the major leagues he posted a 390 OBP and couldnt find a job after that.

Originally Posted by worm33

Becker was well ahead of his time. Amazing that his last 2 years in the major leagues he posted the following lines...

1999: 327 AB 258/395/371
2000: 357 AB 242/384/375

His last 684 AB in the major leagues he posted a 390 OBP and couldnt find a job after that.

Wow. That would make an interesting blog post. Or a neat thread.