Thread: Article: For Better or Worse: Ryan Doumit

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I'll go with Better. No deep thinking behind it. A BA close to .300 and other stats in keeping, for an OPS north of .800.

I think he'll be about the same. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but it seemed to me Every time i was watching that he left a lot of people on base. Although I didn't watch near as many games as I usually do and the ones I did I didn't watch the whole game often.

Originally Posted by tjsyam921

I think he'll be about the same. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but it seemed to me Every time i was watching that he left a lot of people on base. Although I didn't watch near as many games as I usually do and the ones I did I didn't watch the whole game often.

That is true. Especially early in the season, he really struggled with Runners in Scoring Position. If you believe in WPA (Win Probability Added), his was a little negative for the full season, but was much better as the season went along. As someone who doesn't believe that "Clutch" is a tool or a skill someone can work on, I chalk it up to randomness.

I see him as taking a step back in production this year. Not sure exactly why except that most of the projections I've seen think that will be the case and I wonder about health problems.

I vote for worse--basically cause he has never had two injury free seasons in a row. I expect he will be on the DL a lot this year.

He's been so injury prone in his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see his production slip due to getting hurt.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

If you believe in WPA (Win Probability Added), his was a little negative for the full season, but was much better as the season went along. As someone who doesn't believe that "Clutch" is a tool or a skill someone can work on, I chalk it up to randomness.

Even if you don't accept clutchness as an important factor in major league ball, WPA ought to be at worst about the same as Win Shares or VORP or WAR as a useful measure of a season's body of work, shouldn't it? It gets at the heart of what we want to measure as the value a player delivers to his team.

I don't think so. a 2-run double when the game is 0-0 in the first won't score as well in terms of WPA as a 2 run double when the game is 0-0 in the 8th. But there is value to playing with an early lead, or increasing that lead (or chipping away at an opponent's lead early in the game), that WPA doesn't capture.

edit: and likewise striking out with the bases full in the first inning is just as damaging as striking out with the bases loaded in the 8th inning. Or near enough as to not really make a difference.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Even if you don't accept clutchness as an important factor in major league ball, WPA ought to be at worst about the same as Win Shares or VORP or WAR as a useful measure of a season's body of work, shouldn't it? It gets at the heart of what we want to measure as the value a player delivers to his team.

Just to be clear, I definitely accept that clutchness is a thing and it is important in baseball... There are clutch situations, for sure. I just don't think it's something that can be practiced or a skill that someone has.

I fear Doumit gets even slower, to the point where we measure his speed according to viscosity in relation to oil and ketchup. Seriously, I don't see how he improves over last year. So I'd agree that he'll be injured some, and have a marginal offensive drop off.

My gut feeling on Doumit is that he's not even our full-time DH by early June. Throughout his career he's had trouble being a consistent part of his team's success. Be it injury or dips in production, he's just never had back-to-back seasons where he gave you 400+ at-bats of good production. I guess I just see that trend continuing.

He's older than I would like, but he's shown he can hit if he cas stay healthy. And it seems like he can stay healthy if he isn't catching so much. I like the system the Twins are using with he and Mauer - it seems like it brings out the best in both of them. I'll put my money down on the "over".

Ok, almost everyone here votes no because he's bound to get injured. Let's say, as John assumes he manages to stay healthy by playing catcher less (which I believe to be true), is he productive given that assumption?

I say he puts up at least equal numbers to last year, perhaps even a little higher SLG% resulting in a higher OPS.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

He's been so injury prone in his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see his production slip due to getting hurt.

I think if you tried to put him behind the dish for 500 ab's, he'd regress. But it struck me (as others) that he gained throughout the year in knowledge and the ability to drive the ball. I don't hold out a lot of hope he will balloon in numbers, but I believe if he gets to 500 plate appearances and plays DH a lot, he could push an .800 OPS (which in his case, with few walks, would mean a .475 slugging) that would be both a blessing and a gain - and realistic.

We need to think of him as a DH. The offense he contributes when catching is negated by his defense.

How much offensive production can he afford to lose and still be an above average DH?

I think he can and will be better, all the Twins have to do is keep him healthy.

I see his production going up as long as he is healthy, as Im sure he will see more plaing time especially after july.

Sidenote: Today i was informed by a colleague that Ryan Doumit's dad coaches at a JUCO in Oregon. I bet Ryan got a lot of quality reps as a kid, which is what kids need!

I like Doumit's abilities, and I agree he was a fantastic sign