Thread: Article: Handling Gibson

I think that if the Twins want to be extra careful with his arm and limit his innings, he should stay an extra month or so down to EST or play with the Miracle. April in Rochester (as in the Twin Cities) can be a pain.

If it is a medical decision I get it keeping him away. If it not, I don't get it. The best 25 should be in the majors.

As a side debate to the question if/when Gibson should be up, what about his innings limit? Lets say he has a 150 inning limit on him this year. Would you prefer that he only goes 5-6 innings a start to ensure he gets 25 starts or would you rather see him go as long as he can per start and then run the risk of being shut down in August. Obviously, there will be starts he wont last 5-6 innings. I hope those are few and far between, but I also hope there are starts he could go 8-9.

I am trying to think which ESPN analyst suggested that for Strasburg when he had about 10 starts left in order to prevent him from not getting shut down like he did.

I have no opinion on his innings limit other than... I hope that the Twins find a different way to do it compared to how the Nats did it with Strasburg.

If Gibson is pitching well and the Twins are still in contention in September. I hope Gibson isn't shut down.

If this means a slowed down April and May or a break mid season... I don't know. I'd just rather see him throwing at the end of the year.

Originally Posted by Dave T

Exactly. The best players should be up here. Get over it.

This is a message board where people discuss topics from varying points of view.


There's nothing to "get over."

I agree with the poster that suggested that the "right thing" to do with Gibson will likely be pretty obvious by the end of spring training. Right now, it seems that while he is likely healthy, he suffering the effects of not pitching competitively much in the last 2 years. It could easily be that pitching in the minors on pitch limit would make some sense. He could work on his mechanics, timing, secondary pitches, etc.

On the other hand if Diamond and/or Pelfrey aren't ready and nobody else steps up, maybe starting in majors makes sense. I suspect the "right" answer will be more obvious by the end of the month.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

And has it ever demonstrably hurt them?

Yes the Twins typically extend players long before they are eligible for free agency and sometimes before they are elligible for arbitration. But it seems to have hurt them financially in the case of Mauer at least, and some others as well. Because Mauer hurt his knee on the major league roster, he ended up spending most of that year on the major league DL, accruing service time and pushing the date of his first long-term deal up by a year. In an age where they were scraping by on the meager earnings Bill Lester (MSPC Czar) let them have, that meant hard choices elsewhere.

The most obvious case of this is Nick Blackburn. He had two good years with the Twins between 08 and 09, after which they signed him to a four-year contract rather than wait until he was eligible for arbitration, which always drives up the price of any long-term deal. . If they had kept him in AAA for a month in 2008, they could have waited a year to do the long-term deal without looming arbitration to drive up his price. As it happens, he pitched badly in 2010 throughout his contract, largely the result of lingering elbow issues. And it continues to cost the Twins $5.5 million, despite almost zero chance he makes a contribution in 2013. It is one of the worst contracts in Twins history (almost as bad as the Joe Mays deal). Arguably, they would have avoided it altogether if they had just waited a month to give him a shot.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Arguably, they would have avoided it altogether if they had just waited a month to give him a shot.

Or if they could evaluate that a skilllset like Blackburn's wasn't exactly built for prolonged success. That should still be a much more important factor in figuring out who to give guaranteed money to than one less month of service time. The fact that "Blackie" had things on his side like being a "Twins way" pitcher and a Gardy favorite played significant roles in his early re-upping as well. The Twins would have likely been delighted to hand out that deal to "Blackie" at that time even if he had one less month of service time.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Or if they could evaluate that a skilllset like Blackburn's wasn't exactly built for prolonged success. That should still be a much more important factor in figuring out who to give guaranteed money to than one less month of service time. The fact that "Blackie" had things on his side like being a "Twins way" pitcher and a Gardy favorite played significant roles in his early re-upping as well. The Twins would have likely been delighted to hand out that deal to "Blackie" at that time even if he had one less month of service time.

Yes, Blacksie is/was a different can of worms. He was never the type of pitcher that was going to blow up arbitration, or pitch his way into an enormous free agent deal. His contract offered little potential reward right from day one.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Yes the Twins typically extend players long before they are eligible for free agency and sometimes before they are elligible for arbitration. But it seems to have hurt them financially in the case of Mauer at least, and some others as well. Because Mauer hurt his knee on the major league roster, he ended up spending most of that year on the major league DL, accruing service time and pushing the date of his first long-term deal up by a year. In an age where they were scraping by on the meager earnings Bill Lester (MSPC Czar) let them have, that meant hard choices elsewhere.

The most obvious case of this is Nick Blackburn. He had two good years with the Twins between 08 and 09, after which they signed him to a four-year contract rather than wait until he was eligible for arbitration, which always drives up the price of any long-term deal. . If they had kept him in AAA for a month in 2008, they could have waited a year to do the long-term deal without looming arbitration to drive up his price.

As others have pointed out, the Twins bought out the rest of Blackburn's arb years when they still had four years left of control over him, which made little sense considering he was already performing as well as could be expected. Also, the Twins played 163 games in 2008 so it's pretty fair to say that every win counted, and Blackburn was one of best starters on the team. Replacing him with an inferior arm for even the first three weeks of the season could have been the difference between forcing a tiebreaker with Chicago and falling short (though in hindsight obviously it doesn't make a difference).

The same goes for the example with Mauer in 2004. During the short time he played that year it was obvious he was MLB-ready; the alternative would have been starting Henry Blanco for the first three weeks of the season which -- with a playoff-caliber club -- is totally inexcusable. Yeah, it sucks that Mauer got hurt and spent most of the season accruing time in the MLB disabled list but who could have seen that coming?

I would say that the "best 25" argument ignores those few players who although they may be in the top 25, might benefit from time in AAA and may end up being better in 2014 and beyond if some caution is used in 2013, which is clearly a dubious season for the Twins unless the Tigers have some serious injuries. Gibson, Hicks, and Arcia are in the best 25, I think. But x pitcher, Mastro, and Ramirez/Boggs might be better options to start out with.

According to Souhan this morning, Gibson will likely start the season in the minors.

Kyle Gibson pitched two innings in relief. Indications are he'll be sent to the minors so he can begin slowly building up his arm strength to prepare him for starting later this season. While the Twins were open to the idea of him starting the season with the big league club, that would have happened only if he had been lights out this spring.
At this point, they'll probably ease him into duty and hope he can come up mid-summer and be at his best.

Souhan: The bullpen is a mess | StarTribune.com

Well, that sucks. Another reason not to go in the first two months of the year if true.

His locker is empty this morning, so he's probably made the long walk to the minors. He didn't look very good last night. I'll bet he didn't walk alone this morning either the way some looked.

I think the arb clock is sort of an afterthought with Gibson at this point.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

I think the arb clock is sort of an afterthought with Gibson at this point.

It certainly is after this ST. While I argued that it might be a good idea to stall Gibson's clock a bit, most of my argument was based on the fact that he hasn't pitched much since TJ surgery and his time in AAA before surgery was completely mediocre.

Too many people were counting on the guy to come back and be dominant too quickly. He's not Scott Baker. He's not even Mike Pelfrey. He has never pitched an MLB inning in his life. I'm still really high on the guy but I don't expect him to return to competition, vault to the highest level, and thrive in it right away.

I always thought the arb stuff was silly. If he was good enough to be in the rotation to start the season they should have rolled with him. Clearly he isn't there yet. So all the years of control/arb is going to work out anyways.

Terry Ryan said it best when asked earlier about whether arb/control would be a factor in decisions. He said let's see him make the team first.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Too many people were counting on the guy to come back and be dominant too quickly. He's not Scott Baker. He's not even Mike Pelfrey. He has never pitched an MLB inning in his life. I'm still really high on the guy but I don't expect him to return to competition, vault to the highest level, and thrive in it right away.

I'd note that it's also harder for a guy who depends on his slider like Gibson to bounce back from TJ surgery than a guy who's all fastball like Pelfrey. It's not uncommon for a pitcher to come back from the surgery throwing harder than he did before because his arm is clean. But after a year off, having a feel for your secondary stuff--especially breaking pitches-- is another story.

Give him some time to get his feel back in the minors. If the Twins handle him smartly, they'll make him work on his change-up first, then slowly work more sliders back into the mix.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Too many people were counting on the guy to come back and be dominant too quickly. He's not Scott Baker. He's not even Mike Pelfrey.

I dunno. Gibson is now 18 months removed from the surgery so you would hope he'd be back to about where he was before, at which point he was pretty much MLB-ready. The command issues at this point are a tad concerning, IMO, particularly considering that location is such a huge part of his game.

Originally Posted by ALessKosherScott

I'd note that it's also harder for a guy who depends on his slider like Gibson to bounce back from TJ surgery than a guy who's all fastball like Pelfrey. It's not uncommon for a pitcher to come back from the surgery throwing harder than he did before because his arm is clean. But after a year off, having a feel for your secondary stuff--especially breaking pitches-- is another story.

Give him some time to get his feel back in the minors. If the Twins handle him smartly, they'll make him work on his change-up first, then slowly work more sliders back into the mix.

That's a good point. Gibson relies on that slider a lot and from everything I've seen and ready, that's the last pitch to come back after TJS.

Sure, he's throwing harder but if that slider isn't working, his effectiveness will be limited (or non-existant) against MLB hitters.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

I dunno. Gibson is now 18 months removed from the surgery so you would hope he'd be back to about where he was before, at which point he was pretty much MLB-ready. The command issues at this point are a tad concerning, IMO, particularly considering that location is such a huge part of his game.

But do we know which pitches he's struggling to control? If it's his secondary stuff, that shouldn't be entirely unexpected. He just doesn't have that many innings under his belt since the surgery. Sure, it has been 18 months since TJS, but only about 100 innings, the majority of which came against younger and inferior competition.