Thread: Mackey: Trevor May Drawing Highest Praise of Young Pitchers

Phil Mackey tells us that folks seem very impressed with Trevor May, the starting pitching prospect the Twins received in a trade for Ben Revere this offseason. Last year in AA, he was pretty wild, but the Twins hope they can change that:

His problem has always been command. If May can trim down those 4.7 walks per nine innings he has issued in the minor leagues, he isn't far away from making his major league debut.


But May is a perfect representation of the Twins' new approach to acquiring young pitching -- they want guys who can miss bats, even if they don't throw it over the plate as often as they should. The Twins have always felt confident in being able to improve pitchers' command.

If I remember right, May's second half of the year at AA was quite a step up from his first half. Spring training observations are nice, but I'm most encouraged by that.

Spring Observations: Trevor May is good representation of new approach - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

I'm so glad we got Mays back! He was awesome when he played for us before! Staff Ace for sure! !! !!!

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

If I remember right, May's second half of the year at AA was quite a step up from his first half. Spring training observations are nice, but I'm most encouraged by that.

Trevor May pitched 29 games last year in AA. In the first half he had a 4.97 ERA

Date	Team	Opp	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	ER
6/25/2012	PHI (AA)	@BAL	1	0	1	5.4	5	3
6/20/2012	PHI (AA)	@TOR	1	0	1	7.2	5	4
6/15/2012	PHI (AA)	CLE	1	1	0	3	6	2
6/8/2012	PHI (AA)	WSN	1	0	1	5.06	5.33	3
6/3/2012	PHI (AA)	@BAL	1	0	1	14.73	3.67	6
5/27/2012	PHI (AA)	@WSN	1	0	0	5.68	6.33	4
5/22/2012	PHI (AA)	@DET	1	0	0	31.5	2	7
5/16/2012	PHI (AA)	BOS	1	0	0	3.6	5	2
5/11/2012	PHI (AA)	@MIN	1	0	1	1.42	6.33	1
5/5/2012	PHI (AA)	DET	1	0	1	7.2	5	4
4/30/2012	PHI (AA)	@TOR	1	0	0	2.57	7	2
4/25/2012	PHI (AA)	SFG	1	1	0	0	6	0
4/17/2012	PHI (AA)	@SFG	1	1	0	1.8	5	1
4/12/2012	PHI (AA)	@WSN	1	1	0	1.29	7	1
4/6/2012	PHI (AA)	BOS	1	1	0	7.2	5	4
						4.97	79.66	44

In the second half he had a 4.59 ERA.

Date	Team	Opp	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	ER
9/6/2012	PHI (AA)	NYY	1	0	0	1.69	5.33	1
9/1/2012	PHI (AA)	@BOS	1	0	1	9	4	4
8/27/2012	PHI (AA)	NYM	1	1	0	1.13	8	1
8/22/2012	PHI (AA)	@WSN	1	0	1	1.29	7	1
8/17/2012	PHI (AA)	@CLE	1	0	1	20.25	2.67	6
8/12/2012	PHI (AA)	@MIN	1	1	0	3	6	2
8/7/2012	PHI (AA)	@NYY	1	0	1	3.6	5	2
8/2/2012	PHI (AA)	@SFG	1	0	1	2.57	7	2
7/28/2012	PHI (AA)	MIN	1	1	0	3.38	5.33	2
7/23/2012	PHI (AA)	PIT	1	0	1	7.2	5	4
7/18/2012	PHI (AA)	@BOS	1	0	1	10.8	5	6
7/13/2012	PHI (AA)	BAL	1	0	0	3.6	5	2
7/5/2012	PHI (AA)	@PIT	1	0	0	3.6	5	2
6/30/2012	PHI (AA)	TOR	1	1	0	5.4	5	3
6/25/2012	PHI (AA)	@BAL	1	0	1	5.4	5	3
						4.59	80.33	41

I would not personally be that enthused by a 4.59 ERA. I understand that in the minors you frequently go off scouting reports and numbers don't tell the full story but my feeling is that as you progress through the minors the numbers do become more relevant and by AA/AAA they should begin reflecting what the scouts are saying.

Another item of note, Trevor May ranked 69th among 84 pitchers in AA last year in ERA.

Eastern (AA) Leaderboards » 2012 » Pitchers » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

His K/9 was very impressive at 4th among 84 pitchers:

Eastern (AA) Leaderboards » 2012 » Pitchers » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

But his FIP was awful AA at 77th among 84 pitchers:

Eastern (AA) Leaderboards » 2012 » Pitchers » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

Long story longer, I am not as optimistic as some on Trevor May and would prefer to see him repeat AA and see if he can improve on some of these numbers before we rush him to AAA/MLB this year.

I don't thonk they're in a hurry to get May to the majors. I would still wager he ultimately ends up in the back of the bullpen over the rotation.

I think he'll spend the full year in New Britain, or at least start the year there. Keep him starting, as long as you can.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

I think he'll spend the full year in New Britain, or at least start the year there. Keep him starting, as long as you can.

May is the type of guy you continue to start until you've expended every opportunity to make him an MLB starter (and then you try one more time just for the hell of it).

ERA does not tell the story (or much of a story anyways...)

Trevor's issues at Reading last season were: a. he had a hard time getting strikes with his secondary stuff (thus lots of walks) and b. when he was behind the count he was throwing FB (thus a ton of HRs allowed.) He went through the same story as a 20 year old at Clearwater the second half of 2010. He overcame it. He is 23. Needs to be more consistent for sure, but I think that he's got what it takes...

Originally Posted by jharaldson

Trevor May pitched 29 games last year in AA. In the first half he had a 4.97 ERA

Date	Team	Opp	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	ER
6/25/2012	PHI (AA)	@BAL	1		1	5.4	5	3
6/20/2012	PHI (AA)	@TOR	1		1	7.2	5	4
6/15/2012	PHI (AA)	CLE	1	1		3	6	2
6/8/2012	PHI (AA)	WSN	1		1	5.06	5.33	3
6/3/2012	PHI (AA)	@BAL	1		1	14.73	3.67	6
5/27/2012	PHI (AA)	@WSN	1			5.68	6.33	4
5/22/2012	PHI (AA)	@DET	1			31.5	2	7
5/16/2012	PHI (AA)	BOS	1			3.6	5	2
5/11/2012	PHI (AA)	@MIN	1		1	1.42	6.33	1
5/5/2012	PHI (AA)	DET	1		1	7.2	5	4
4/30/2012	PHI (AA)	@TOR	1			2.57	7	2
4/25/2012	PHI (AA)	SFG	1	1			6
4/17/2012	PHI (AA)	@SFG	1	1		1.8	5	1
4/12/2012	PHI (AA)	@WSN	1	1		1.29	7	1
4/6/2012	PHI (AA)	BOS	1	1		7.2	5	4
						4.97	79.66	44

In the second half he had a 4.59 ERA.

Date	Team	Opp	GS	W	L	ERA	IP	ER
9/6/2012	PHI (AA)	NYY	1			1.69	5.33	1
9/1/2012	PHI (AA)	@BOS	1		1	9	4	4
8/27/2012	PHI (AA)	NYM	1	1		1.13	8	1
8/22/2012	PHI (AA)	@WSN	1		1	1.29	7	1
8/17/2012	PHI (AA)	@CLE	1		1	20.25	2.67	6
8/12/2012	PHI (AA)	@MIN	1	1		3	6	2
8/7/2012	PHI (AA)	@NYY	1		1	3.6	5	2
8/2/2012	PHI (AA)	@SFG	1		1	2.57	7	2
7/28/2012	PHI (AA)	MIN	1	1		3.38	5.33	2
7/23/2012	PHI (AA)	PIT	1		1	7.2	5	4
7/18/2012	PHI (AA)	@BOS	1		1	10.8	5	6
7/13/2012	PHI (AA)	BAL	1			3.6	5	2
7/5/2012	PHI (AA)	@PIT	1			3.6	5	2
6/30/2012	PHI (AA)	TOR	1	1		5.4	5	3
6/25/2012	PHI (AA)	@BAL	1		1	5.4	5	3
						4.59	80.33	41

I would not personally be that enthused by a 4.59 ERA. I understand that in the minors you frequently go off scouting reports and numbers don't tell the full story but my feeling is that as you progress through the minors the numbers do become more relevant and by AA/AAA they should begin reflecting what the scouts are saying.

Another item of note, Trevor May ranked 69th among 84 pitchers in AA last year in ERA.

Eastern (AA) Leaderboards » 2012 » Pitchers » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

His K/9 was very impressive at 4th among 84 pitchers:

Eastern (AA) Leaderboards » 2012 » Pitchers » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

But his FIP was awful AA at 77th among 84 pitchers:

Eastern (AA) Leaderboards » 2012 » Pitchers » Advanced Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

Long story longer, I am not as optimistic as some on Trevor May and would prefer to see him repeat AA and see if he can improve on some of these numbers before we rush him to AAA/MLB this year.

for some reason I remember it being the BB/9 in particular that improved. Looking at the numbers, I see a guy that is pretty good but then has "that game" where he gets absolutely shelled.

Looking at ERA in the second half does not make him look good.....but look at the starts with 3 or less runs vs starts with 4 or more, I'd take that ratio every single day.....every single day.

I saw him play in New Britain last year in the 2nd half of the season, and he was very good. One start to be sure, but he has the potential to be a very good starter. Whether he actually realizes that is, of course, another story...