Thread: Article: Joe Mauer Hates Pop-Ups

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

I like reading about these unique stats, but I guess I'm more curious as to why Mauer struck out 88 times last year. It really never dawned on me that that number had increased so significantly until I read your passing comment.

That's way out of his norm, and he's approaching the unflattering 100k level. I like Mauer, I'm not bashing him, but what happened last year to drive up his K% to 13.7%? His contact percentage was only down .8% from his career average. However his swing percentage was at 35.4%, down from his career average of 37.3% and his swing percentage of pitches in the zone was 52.5%, down from his career average of 55.5%. It would seem to me that his seeming desire to be the most selctive hitter is actually driving his K% up.

It may not explain it entirely, but the whole league is striking out more. It may be (at least partly) due to pitchers being better at striking people out.

EDIT: I was surprised after actually looking, that Mauer's K-rate has actually increased over his career more slowly than the league K-rate. It certainly doesn't appear that way to the eye because he actually decreased it over the first several years and jumped each of the last two (as opposed to the league that has been on a steadier, smoother climb, obviously).

A similar thing. Joey Votto has only pulled one foul ball into the stands for his career.

I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.

Whoa Whoa Whoa - in the "Batted Ball Rates" the league average adds up to 110%. Not to useful to compare against Mauer's breakdown which also oddly totals 102%.

What am I missing here?

Originally Posted by NotJoeBuck

Whoa Whoa Whoa - in the "Batted Ball Rates" the league average adds up to 110%. Not to useful to compare against Mauer's breakdown which also oddly totals 102%.

What am I missing here?

Sorry, IFFB% is actually a percentage of a percentage. So Mauer's 2% is 2% of his fly ball rate, not 2% of his batted balls.

So, if he had 100 batted balls and 25 were fly balls, and 1 of those was an infield fly, his FB% would be 25% and his IFFB% would be 4%.

Originally Posted by NotJoeBuck

What am I missing here?

Pop-ups are considered flyballs.

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

I cannot think of ANY TIME that I would rather see my guys get doubled-up than an infield pop-up

A run scoring double play is better than a pop up.

Nice article. This is why I love to read Twins Daily. Well-written, well-researched, and a little wit. Fun.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing. I did not see that segment.
I also believe you're correct to map that onto the Twins pitching staff. Makes me think (ouch).

Originally Posted by Don't Feed the Greed Guy

Nice article. This is why I love to read Twins Daily. Well-written, well-researched, and a little wit. Fun.

This is very kind. Thank you for the feedback!

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

I saw a piece on the MLB network last night about the rise of the three true outcome hitters. They too made the arguement that even the high contact hitters were whiffing more as the rising tide lifts all ships.

Thiking about it, the rise of the three true outcome hitters does demonstrate why the Twins pitchers are decreasing in effectiveness also. The Twins pitchers don't have the ability to strike many guys out. Meanwhile they also are resistant to issuing walks, which in the three true outcome model is the lesser of the two evils. This leaves the HR as a higher probability for Twins pitchers than it likely would for other clubs.

There's a clear logical fallacy to your point here. Having fewer strikeouts and walks does not mean that the Twins will have more home runs or even are any more likely to give up home runs. Those are separate variables. The only way your logic would make sense is if baseball involved no other outcomes - only a HR, a K or a BB was possibly in each at bat. Luckily for baseball fans, this is not true.

Twins pitchers may replace those K's and BB's with more ground balls or pop ups or doubles or line drives or hit batsman. The three outcomes are all separate variables which do not directly effect one another.

Does the league going away from steroids have anything to do with rising strikeout rates?

Originally Posted by ThejacKmp

There's a clear logical fallacy to your point here. Having fewer strikeouts and walks does not mean that the Twins will have more home runs or even are any more likely to give up home runs. Those are separate variables. The only way your logic would make sense is if baseball involved no other outcomes - only a HR, a K or a BB was possibly in each at bat. Luckily for baseball fans, this is not true.

Twins pitchers may replace those K's and BB's with more ground balls or pop ups or doubles or line drives or hit batsman. The three outcomes are all separate variables which do not directly effect one another.

Ya, its science guys. The property of non-effect. A and B have nothing to do with C. Sciene=Fact. Like how ketchup and mustard go together, peanut butter and jelly go together, but ketchup and peanut butter don't go together. Simple science.

The Twins did give up the most homers of any team in the league though, behind only Toronto.

There are inverse correlations between K% & BABIP, k% & HR/FB, and K% & LD%

If you miss fewer bats then other teams, then you will also miss fewer sweet spots of bats. More balls will be put in play, more balls will be hit hard. Hitting a ball with a bat isn't a totally random event.