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To the long lost son of my thankfully long dead mother in law, try for a change to have a fact. If you are going to criticize the percentages of draftees playing then also have a clue about what the other teams success rate is. More half truthes out of people. Mkake up stats and their significance. Besides, it is the scouting director, not Ryan that makes the selections. Deron Johnson has been on the job as director since 2007Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnydakota
I agree that a study like this would require some context of how other teams did in their draft.Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnydakota
What is actually more interesting to me is to look at who was drafted in the 10-15 picks immediately following a Twins draft pick and to see who they could have had instead. I don't want to go back and list all the names, but my general feeling is that the Twins do an acceptable job in this regard. There are obviously guys they could have drafted instead, but there are rarely large misses with large amounts of players that were clearly better. It truly is amazing what the miss rate is for draft picks once you get into the second half of the first round. However, once Hicks and Gibson make their debuts this year the only first round pick between 2000-2009 that won't make the majors in some capacity will be Matt Moses from 2003, and most of those picks will actually be quite productive. This hasn't necessarily led to high rankings in prospect lists, but it is a pretty impressive performance overall.
I'll agree with this and my initial response was unnecessarily snarky. It is baseless to pin it solely on drafting later in the first round. There were several other factors that contributed.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLeviathan
Well. Leviathan, I just had to chuckle at your last response to my post about the effect of having a lower draft order. I couldn't make any sense of it, sorry. I think we're actually more in agreement than you comprehend about the role of GM's in their organization's draft. I don't give Ryan or Smith much credit OR blame for the draft, because no one-none of the commenters here- has ever demonstrated that the GMs have influenced the draft enough to desrve blame or credit.
For those of you who still insist that it's baseless to contend that a consistently lower draft order will likely lower the quality of a farm system: where is your proof? Pull out the rosters for last year's All Star game. Looking at ONLY the draftees and not international signees, add up the percentages of the All Stars who were 1st rounders #1-10, 1st rounders #11-20, and 1st rounders #21-30. Then add up the players picked in subsequent rounds. After you do that, come on back and argue that there's no connection between the draft order and the quality of your farm system, and eventually of course your MLB roster.
I have never claimed there is no correlation. I have stated that if your strategy is to ignore free agency, that you are required to be better than other teams at drafting and developing, otherwise your strategy will not work. So, if Ryan chooses that strategy, he needs to be held to a higher standard at buuilding the minors, whether that is international signings, drafts, or trades. I also have stated many times here that the scouting director makes the picks, but I have also stated that the GM hires the scouting director, and is ultimately responsible for the quality of the system. If that system consistently fails to produce players, something has to change.
I have also said repeatedly that the quality of the system dropped off significantly the last few years under Ryan, and that is why there were insufficient young, good players on the roster the last few years.
Btw, I never asked for all stars.....I'd like a MIFer that contributes at a median level for more than 1 year. I'd like a semblance of a pitching staff.
And, if it is so much easier to draft well at the top of the draft, why give credit to the scouts or GM at all for doing so? The trick is being good at something others are not good at, that's how you win.
Great job on the monitors part, for saving a potential thrash thread and getting some good discussion out of it!
Are you providing the same? It's disingenuous to provide a couple names and say your position of the debate is any more settled than the opposing view. I always bristle at the demand for more facts than a poster has already provided themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by birdwatcher
Personally, I think draft position matters infinitely less than quality scouting. Your post was a mish-mash of bizarre excuses. If you don't feel Ryan is mostly accountable to the dip in our farm, why post a bunch of excuses for him? A simple "well that's not all on Ryan" would've sufficed.
The 2012 Tampa Starting Rotation
James Shields 16th round
Matt Moore 8th
Jeremy Hellickson 4th (rookie of the year)
Alex Cobb 4th
Dave Price 1st
The Twins along with the rest of Baseball, had a shot at 4/5th of this Premiere Rotation. Scouting!!!!
It is not only scouting... it is player development in the minors as well. Someone can have incredible ability but if he has flaws that do not get fixed early and often (Shooter Hunt anyone) forget about it. Luck too. Good medical stuff as well. Identifying talent and pushing it up the ladder fast. Lots of factors.Quote:
Originally Posted by Highabove
Coulda woluda shoulda game.Quote:
Originally Posted by drjim
Same position misses on selections
2004 Twins, Matt Fox, next selection Gio Gonzales A few selections later they selected Jay Rainville Next selection Hudson Street
2005 they took Hank Sanchez. a 1B. Couple selections later, Jed Lowrie
2001 second rounder Scott Tylerl, 25 picks later, Dan Haren
2003 Matt Moses. Next player selected that turned out was a few selections later, Chad Billingsly.
I supose in 2000 with Adam Johnson you could say Chas Utley, but that was 13 picks later, with a lot of bad inbetween
And may i ask who hires and fires the scouting director? Even though the scouting director recomends player x , is it not Mr. Ryan who has the final say? If the draft has nothing to do with Terry fine, me bad ,Then i sugest we fire who ever is in charge, and try to pry away from Tampa and St. Louis a couple assistant scouting directors.Quote:
Originally Posted by old nurse
Ryan publically stated that he has very little to do with the draft. Deron Johnson is the scouting director. He can only be as good as the scouts are good at evaluating talent. At this point there was nothing wrong with last few year's draft. multiple players are working their way up the system.Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnydakota
One important thing to note is that while this may be true, it's undeniable that when Smith took over the Twin's drafting philosophy changed. So why or how that happened, I doubt that was coincidental. Smith may not have been making the choices, but he may have been dictating preferences.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wise One
Deron took over about the time Ryan left. As he has gained experience, one would expect the philosophies to changeQuote:
Originally Posted by TheLeviathan
Then perhaps Smith should get credit for giving him that job. Sounds like he's the guy that wanted Deron there. Could be that Smith was familiar with what Deron did well and wanted to shift our drafting strategy. In which case I give a big tip of the cap to Deron and a tip of the cap to Smith for putting the right guy in that role.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Wise One
Yes, there are always misses. The Revere pick, though panned at the time, actually ended up as a pretty good value relative to other picks in the area. Of course, about 15-20 picks later the Marlins took Gioncarlo Stanton...Quote:
Originally Posted by old nurse
I agree that Tampa Bay has done a great job in the draft... However in Fairness:Quote:
Originally Posted by Highabove
In 2005: Hellickson RHP was drafted in the 4th Round out of High School Des Moines Iowa.
Also in 2005: Wade Townshend RHP was drafted in the 1st round out of Rice University (8th overall)... Chris Mason RHP was drafted in the 2nd round out of the University of North Carolina and Bryan Morris RHP was drafted in the 3rd Round out of High School in Tennessee and he went unsigned.
In fairness... I'm just pointing out that they missed on the first three.
In 2006: Alex Cobb RHP was drafted in the 4th Round out of High School Vero Beach Florida.
Also in 2006: Evan Longoria was selected in the 1st round(3rd Overall) out of Long Beach State... Josh Butler RHP was taken in the 2nd round out of the University of San Diego... Nicholas Fuller RHP was drafted in the third round out of High School in Georgia and he was unsigned.
In 2007: David Price LHP was drafted in the 1st round and Matt Moore LHP was drafted in the 8th round...
Also in 2007: In between those picks... 2nd round Will Kline RHP, 3rd round Nick Bernase RHP, 4th round David Newmann LHP, 5th round Dustin Beill OF, 6th Round Emeel Salem OF and 7th Round Reid Fronk 3B.
In 2000: James Shields was drafted in the 16th round... Rocco Baldelli was drafted by the Devil Rays in the 1st round... The 11 Players drafted between those two players. Only one reached the Major Leagues... That one player was LHP Mark Malaska who threw for a total of 36 MLB Innings. They missed on everyone else.
I agree the Rays have done a great job... Just wanted to point out that they miss and miss a lot just like the Twins do.
You are probably wrong on your assessment since the promotion of Johnson came at the same time as Radcliff and Smith were promoted.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLeviathan
http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/...=.jsp&c_id=min
Fair enough, though the same article also quotes Smith as overseeing the scouting department. Any way you shake it, Ryan should get no more or less credit than Smith for what the farm looks like. Ryan has generally gotten a lot of credit (deserved in my opinion) for turning the farm system around in the mid to late 90s. It also suffered horribly towards the end of his run. I just think holding the same standard with another GM is fair. I don't think that's going out on a limb.Quote:
Originally Posted by old nurse
Perhaps people should look at how many players the Twins have gotten to the majors as compared to other teams. Seems to me that the Twins have been on the higher side of that number in recent years.
That Tampa bay draft shows a ton about how difficult identifying talent can be. TB passed up on James Shields 15 times. Hellickson and Cobb 3 times, etc. These guys weren't sure things. They were toolsy highschoolers who were incredibly raw and needed work. Perhaps Tampa knows something about developing pitchers that others do not. That seems quite possible. For that matter Pujols was passed up by every team more than once.
Drafting good players is hardly an exact science. When teams are thrilled to get more than 2 major leaguers from a draft class, I find it strange that fans are railing on the organization with expectations that they should have a dozen or something silly like that. If this was a sure thing, Pujols would have went first overall.