Thread: Article: 2013 Spring Training Preview

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Good take, but I'd put Dozier in the two hole. Mauer is too good of a hitter to feel the need to pull the ball to move Hicks to third with nobody out. Let someone who is less of a hitter sacrifice to move the runner.

If I'm Kevin Correia, I've got a huge chip on my shoulder about all the negativity my signing has caused and I've got something to prove. I bet he puts up career numbers this year. I like this rotation a whole lot better than last year's. I think all of those young guys who put up pedestrian numbers in 2012 come out and show what they are capable of in 2013. If we go at least .500 in April, I think this team has a shot to do some things. GOD I LOVE SPRING!

Mauer is very well suited to be the #2 hitter, but Gardy won't put him there. History tells us he'd rather have one of his middle INF at the spot. But the lineup posted above is very strong 2-7. But if Hicks or Dozier can't hit/get on-base there's going to be a pretty nasty gap over 8-9-1.

I agree the odds of the Twins succeeding this season aren't high. There are enough pieces there to make it happen, but as we saw last season when you have too many question marks the odds aren't good. I believe this lineup will end up scoring runs roughly equivalent to last season (which is good) and the bullpen should be dependable and reasonably strong. But there are loads of question marks all over the rotation.

I wouldn't shed a tear if they cut ties with Burnett and/or Swarzak and gave a shot to one of the new guys they acquired (Pressley, Roenicke, Wood). I assume you included Perez only because you believe Gardenhire will insist on another lefty.

Good work. It will be interesting to see what happens when Diamond is ready. Probably Hendriks goes down until Gibson runs out of innings. But what if Hendriks, Gibson, Worely and Pelfrey shine, Correia tanks and Diamond is ready?

Originally Posted by LewFordLives

I assume you included Perez only because you believe Gardenhire will insist on another lefty.

Basically I just wanted to take a little bit of a leap since most of my picks were on the safe side. I think Perez will impress people and force his way into the picture. And yes, I do think Gardy will want an extra lefty, especially since Perkins is going to be a match-up guy.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Good work. It will be interesting to see what happens when Diamond is ready. Probably Hendriks goes down until Gibson runs out of innings. But what if Hendriks, Gibson, Worely and Pelfrey shine, Correia tanks and Diamond is ready?

An interesting question and a very plausible scenario.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Good work. It will be interesting to see what happens when Diamond is ready. Probably Hendriks goes down until Gibson runs out of innings. But what if Hendriks, Gibson, Worely and Pelfrey shine, Correia tanks and Diamond is ready?

If anyone tanks... They should be placed in the bullpen or AAA or cut... It's that simple. I'm hoping that Gardy and Ryan don't try to complicate it by letting players work through the tankings.

Cannot really see Hicks or Gibson on the opening day roster.
For a team that isn't going to threaten for the division championship it just doesn't seem like losing a year of control is worth it.
Still, I suppose it could happen...

The starting lineup doesn't look tooo bad but that bench makes me cringe.

I see Wood and Roiencke pushing out Brunett (has options) and Swarzak (opens season on DL). Pressly is the dark horse. If those first two, of Fein, falters, look to DeVries to be a long man in the bullpen. Of course, if Perez becomes the 5th starter..... Would almost like to see a Thome on the bench, with Doumit getting more time in right and first.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

If anyone tanks... They should be placed in the bullpen or AAA or cut... It's that simple. I'm hoping that Gardy and Ryan don't try to complicate it by letting players work through the tankings.

I would argue that it SHOULD matter who is doing the tanking, the nature of the tanking, and the severity of the tanking. There are guys I'd be more willing to let work through some things on the big league roster than others. (I'm thinking of a younger guy who may just need the experience of figuring out major leaguers as opposed to someone who's doing something mechanically wrong that could be fixed elsewhere.)

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Good work. It will be interesting to see what happens when Diamond is ready. Probably Hendriks goes down until Gibson runs out of innings. But what if Hendriks, Gibson, Worely and Pelfrey shine, Correia tanks and Diamond is ready?

I think some of that will work itself out with Gibson's innings limit (and I haven't seen anything that makes it really clear to me when Diamond will be ready). But as Nick said, it's a pretty interesting question if you get possibly six or seven (or more) guys all performing at about the same level as starters.

Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN

Cannot really see Hicks or Gibson on the opening day roster.
For a team that isn't going to threaten for the division championship it just doesn't seem like losing a year of control is worth it.
Still, I suppose it could happen...

The Twins are coming off consecutive 90+ loss seasons. Ticket sales are luke warm at best. They need to get off to a good start. It makes no sense to come north with anything less than their best roster.

Originally Posted by jmlease1

Mauer is very well suited to be the #2 hitter, but Gardy won't put him there.

Should be noted that Mauer got nearly a quarter of his plate appearances batting second as recently as 2009. Obviously some things have changed since then, but I don't think it's out of the question given the likely roster construction.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

The Twins are coming off consecutive 90+ loss seasons. Ticket sales are luke warm at best. They need to get off to a good start. It makes no sense to come north with anything less than their best roster.

The better of the two projections currently at Fangraphs has Hicks hitting .249/.329/.404 this season; the other projects .217/.298/.340. Aside from the possibility of a flukey hot start, we probably should expect about league-average on-base skill + light pop if things go well for him this year, but there's also a strong possibility that he's just going to look in over his head.

Meanwhile, the same projections for Mastroianni have him between .256/.325/.350 and .235/.307/.329. If you plug him into CF for one month, instead of Hicks, how much of a difference to the team record is it likely to make?

Originally Posted by CDog

I would argue that it SHOULD matter who is doing the tanking, the nature of the tanking, and the severity of the tanking. There are guys I'd be more willing to let work through some things on the big league roster than others. (I'm thinking of a younger guy who may just need the experience of figuring out major leaguers as opposed to someone who's doing something mechanically wrong that could be fixed elsewhere.)

Yeah... Context is always a trump card.

However... The only way that average pitching can work for a club is if everyone in the rotation is at least average.

If starts are gobbled up by pitchers throwing up numbers like Blackburn and Marquis did last year. Any depth of potentially average pitchers that we have is marginalized.

I'd hate to be the one to make that call... Who is just momentarily stumbling and who is in a deep i'm having issues funk. It's a thin line.

Originally Posted by frightwig

The better of the two projections currently at Fangraphs has Hicks hitting .249/.329/.404 this season; the other projects .217/.298/.340. Aside from the possibility of a flukey hot start, we probably should expect about league-average on-base skill + light pop if things go well for him this year, but there's also a strong possibility that he's just going to look in over his head.

Meanwhile, the same projections for Mastroianni have him between .256/.325/.350 and .235/.307/.329. If you plug him into CF for one month, instead of Hicks, how much of a difference to the team record is it likely to make?

cmathewson had a reasonable business-based counter to my original post, but I agree with you, frightwig. In 2019 (or whenever it comes to be an issue) it will look pretty stupid that they gave up a year of control to try to salvage something out of the 2013 season.
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Beyond these three, there are a number of fringe contenders – such as Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Rich Harden, Sam Deduno and Cole DeVries – that cannot be discounted.

kind of a detail but Blackburn will not be ready until June.

I just hope that Harden is healthy and ready and he got it, so he can be this team's ace. Otherwise these Twins are not going anywhere

Originally Posted by frightwig

The better of the two projections currently at Fangraphs has Hicks hitting .249/.329/.404 this season; the other projects .217/.298/.340. Aside from the possibility of a flukey hot start, we probably should expect about league-average on-base skill + light pop if things go well for him this year, but there's also a strong possibility that he's just going to look in over his head.

Meanwhile, the same projections for Mastroianni have him between .256/.325/.350 and .235/.307/.329. If you plug him into CF for one month, instead of Hicks, how much of a difference to the team record is it likely to make?

Offensively, they might be comparable. But defensively, Hicks is the far better player.