Zulgad: Terry Ryan is Good News for Ron Gardenhire

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Originally Posted by USAFChief

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I think there's a real possibility this is Gardy's last season as Twins manager. If they lose 90 again--and they certainly could--my guess is he's gone. They might not call it a firing, but there'll be a new manager in the dugout in 2014. Gardy's had a good run, but a new manager to go along with the youth movement will be too appealing to pass up.

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I agree with this take completely. I actually think barring a .500 record he's gone.

Molitor is the logical successor. He should have been added to the staff this offseason but they probably wanted to avoid in-season speculation and to keep Molitor free of the taint if another mediocre season.

They brought new coaches in to begin the transition and will finish it next offseason.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Didn't stop him from signing Corriea to a two year deal

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/rimshot :)

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Originally Posted by gunnarthor

The funny thing is that, by pyth w/l, Maddon's Rays have generally underachieved. He's only had one season where he won more games than his pyth W/L record would have guessed.

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Yes, but he's averaged 85 wins a year in the toughest division in baseball. He's managed one of the two cheapest rosters in four of his seven seasons, and bottom ten in the other three. AL manager of the year twice to Gardy's once despite four fewer years as manager, and a playoff record that, while below .500, dwarfs Gardy's.

If you were just pointing out an anomaly with the pythag disparity, good find. It's certainly interesting, especially since Tampa has usually had an excellent bullpen during his tenure, and I don't have a theory why they've undershot their expected wins under Maddon.

On the other hand, if you were citing it as evidence that he's overrated, agree to disagree. He'll probably always be a polarizing figure as a proponent of sabermetrics in a job where his peers have mostly either downplayed their significance or, in cases like Dusty "walks clog the base" Baker, have just plain gone flat earth on them.

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Originally Posted by twinsnorth49

Valencia had likely patted himself on the back enough, Gardy didn't feel like he needed to.

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I got a very respectable chuckle out of this.

I think it's more likely than not this is Gardy's last season with the Twins. A winning record probably saves his job, but that's probably not going to happen, I'd bet on a new manager in 2014.

There seems to be a sense that Molitor will and should be the guy. I've never quite understood that. Where is it written that being a popular local boy who had a great playing career means you have a God-given right to a job on the coaching staff with the hometown major league team upon request?

I don't have any particular objection to Molitor, maybe he'd make a great manager, but I'm not seeing the kind of track record of success in that field to convince me that we should assume he will be. Is he such a clearly better candidate than anyone else out there that we should give him the job just because he wants it?

Hiring Molitor would kinda feel like it were being done in the interest of making the fan base happy (or at least less angry) as opposed to giving the team the best chance to win.

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Originally Posted by LaBombo

Yes, but he's averaged 85 wins a year in the toughest division in baseball. He's managed one of the two cheapest rosters in four of his seven seasons, and bottom ten in the other three. AL manager of the year twice to Gardy's once despite four fewer years as manager, and a playoff record that, while below .500, dwarfs Gardy's.

If you were just pointing out an anomaly with the pythag disparity, good find. It's certainly interesting, especially since Tampa has usually had an excellent bullpen during his tenure, and I don't have a theory why they've undershot their expected wins under Maddon.

On the other hand, if you were citing it as evidence that he's overrated, agree to disagree. He'll probably always be a polarizing figure as a proponent of sabermetrics in a job where his peers have mostly either downplayed their significance or, in cases like Dusty "walks clog the base" Baker, have just plain gone flat earth on them.

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The theory backed up by the evidence could be that Maddon gets his teams to overproduce with his wizardry. His winning formula does backfire once in a while (as is prone to happen in all things) and cost them one or two winnable games?

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Originally Posted by LoganJones

The theory backed up by the evidence could be that Maddon gets his teams to overproduce with his wizardry. His winning formula does backfire once in a while (as is prone to happen in all things) and cost them one or two winnable games?

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Or he has had a nice run of elite starting pitching. That makes most managers look competent.

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Originally Posted by LaBombo

Yes, but he's averaged 85 wins a year in the toughest division in baseball. He's managed one of the two cheapest rosters in four of his seven seasons, and bottom ten in the other three. AL manager of the year twice to Gardy's once despite four fewer years as manager, and a playoff record that, while below .500, dwarfs Gardy's.

If you were just pointing out an anomaly with the pythag disparity, good find. It's certainly interesting, especially since Tampa has usually had an excellent bullpen during his tenure, and I don't have a theory why they've undershot their expected wins under Maddon.

On the other hand, if you were citing it as evidence that he's overrated, agree to disagree. He'll probably always be a polarizing figure as a proponent of sabermetrics in a job where his peers have mostly either downplayed their significance or, in cases like Dusty "walks clog the base" Baker, have just plain gone flat earth on them.

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Pyth. +/- would seem to speak to in-game managing skill. There is also the question of how the runs scored / runs scored + runs allowed equation comes to be.

Baseball prospectus has a statistic called Defensive EFficiency (H-HR)/(AB-SO-HR+SH+SF). The Rays are consistently among the top 1 or 2 teams in Defensive Efficiency due to their shifts - employed by the Maddon braintrust. They score even better when you factor in park effects.

edit: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/gl...search=DEF_EFF

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Originally Posted by drjim

Or he has had a nice run of elite starting pitching. That makes most managers look competent.

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Pshh. That makes too much sense.

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Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Maybe it never occurred to Ryan to ask for a pitcher he didn't think has the goods, a view that Washington later seconded.

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And kevin Correia is that much better? If nothing else it saves signing a minor leaque filler, or maybe a fresh start and Lannon has a decent season for us , or is trade bait for colorado or san diego

Do not know if Molitor is the sucessor, they wanted him out of the way in case things went south. Our Rochester manager might have just as much of a chance. Molitor may have failed at some point in time and also does not have a lot of manager experience, with young players, that may be the factor.

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Originally Posted by johnnydakota

And kevin Correia is that much better? If nothing else it saves signing a minor leaque filler, or maybe a fresh start and Lannon has a decent season for us , or is trade bait for colorado or san diego

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I'm no Correia apologist, but he doesn't have much to do with this trade. Lannan spent the year in AAA and did not distinguish himself at all, while Correia contributed at the major league level. If we're asking why Ryan didn't get something else in the Span trade, it may be because both the Twins and the Nationals view Meyer as a potential front-line starter and Span even-up was the correct deal, and Ryan wasn't interested in trying to add mere filler if he'd have to give anything whatsoever to the package.

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Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

I'm no Correia apologist, but he doesn't have much to do with this trade. Lannan spent the year in AAA and did not distinguish himself at all, while Correia contributed at the major league level. If we're asking why Ryan didn't get something else in the Span trade, it may be because both the Twins and the Nationals view Meyer as a potential front-line starter and Span even-up was the correct deal, and Ryan wasn't interested in trying to add mere filler if he'd have to give anything whatsoever to the package.

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Nationals were/are pitching heavy....that's why he was the odd man out. Lannan is absolutely worth having and he stays health too. I imagine he'll do pretty well in Philly. Won't ever be a star, but he's a decent pitcher.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Nationals were/are pitching heavy....that's why he was the odd man out. Lannan is absolutely worth having and he stays health too. I imagine he'll do pretty well in Philly. Won't ever be a star, but he's a decent pitcher.

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Thankfully, the Twins are also loaded with pitching depth, and thus don't need guys like Lannan.

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Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Thankfully, the Twins are also loaded with pitching depth, and thus don't need guys like Lannan.

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yeah, thankfully :-)

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Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Thankfully, the Twins are also loaded with pitching depth, and thus don't need guys like Lannan.

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We keep talking about signing players who can later be flipped. Then here we are with Lannan, characterized as decent but simply an odd-man-out, and the Nationals weren't able to do anything with him except DFA him. This doesn't add up.

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Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

We keep talking about signing players who can later be flipped. Then here we are with Lannan, characterized as decent but simply an odd-man-out, and the Nationals weren't able to do anything with him except DFA him. This doesn't add up.

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and then he was signed by Philly. I'm not a huge Lannan fan per se, but to say he wasn't worth getting, or not better than Correia cause he got sent down by the Nationals (as opposed to Correia who just got sent to the pen by the Pirates), doesn't make much sense. He's better than Correia and younger than Correia

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Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

the Nationals weren't able to do anything with him except DFA him. This doesn't add up.

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Thats a great point... Doesn't this speak volumes over his value. The Nationals could not complete a trade with anyone for Lannen. They had to DFA him and get nothing in return... I have no idea but it does seem to say something.

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Thats a great point... Doesn't this speak volumes over his value. The Nationals could not complete a trade with anyone for Lannen. They had to DFA him and get nothing in return... I have no idea but it does seem to say something.

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It probably says "other teams knew he'd be available due to roster space, and weren't going to give up something when they could try and get him for free".

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Thats a great point... Doesn't this speak volumes over his value. The Nationals could not complete a trade with anyone for Lannen. They had to DFA him and get nothing in return... I have no idea but it does seem to say something.

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I think there may have been a contract issue involved. Without the DFA, Lannan was likely due a raise over his $5M 2012 salary, by either the Nats or whoever acquired him. Once he was DFAed, he could sign with anyone for any (lower) amount.

In any case, all this moaning over a pitcher whose K/9 is on a (low) par with other pitchers who can't miss bats that we love to complain about, and who did not do well in AAA, baffles me.