Thread: Article: Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

If Florimon hits like you're projecting him, the Twins can't seriously justify keeping him as the starting shortstop all season.

That's why I have him playing 62 games or so... my assumption is he'd get two months and be gone by mid-June.

Originally Posted by mcrow

I have to say I think you're a bit overly positive on several players. I appreciate the positivity though.

Someone has to show a little positivity, right?

Originally Posted by jimbo92107

Florimon .189 vs. Escobar .259? That's pretty much saying Escobar should be the regular SS.

With that arm, maybe Florimon could try out for closer.

I'd be comfortable with that.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Someone has to show a little positivity, right?

I like the Morneau stat line, would love it if that happens. Lets cross fingers and hope it happens because that would be huge for the Twins to be watchable this year.

Originally Posted by mcrow

I agree, but do think that it is possible to plausible (It could happen) and reasonable (not without reason) but some of these are unlikely at the same time.

As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.

Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans

Seth very interesting article and set of offensive numbers--overly bullish to say the least. I disagree with most people and say they are not reasonable at all because you forgot to factor in time on the DL. You have Mauer playing 143 games, Doumit 127, Plouffe 154, Morneau 142 and Willingham 151. It is possible that one or two of these guys will avoid the DL--but all 5--given their history no way. (Yes, Doumit could spend time on the DL and get 127 appearances but not likely.) I gather you have Hicks coming up sometime around memorial day and displacing Mastro--if he is on team all year--he plays 120plus--Gardy and Ryan wont keep him on MLB roster to keep him on bench,.

I considered injuries and DL time, but obviously that's completely unpredictable... There are a lot of teams that have guys that play over 150 games a year. I'm predicting the Twins will have a couple too. I don't know if they're the right ones, but we'll find out.

Correct on my thoughts of Hicks taking over in probably early June. I also have Benson being up the full season, or most of it, and splitting time with Mastroianni at the start of the season and then sticking around later because once Hicks is up, Hicks'll play most every day.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

As is the case with all projections, including those that get used over and over on the interwebs. I definitely don't claim to have any perfect formula. I look at past history, and pay a little more attention to the last couple of years, age, trends, and put it all together.

No worries Seth, I'm not saying I could do better but like you said no system is perfect and you could very well be right and I'm undersetimating some guys. I sure as heck hope yours are right because it's going to be a massacist's paradise around here if mine are right...

If both Benson and Hicks have better projected averages then Mastrioanni, then the Twins should just plant them in the outfield and leave them there. This team needs to give fans a reason to buy tickets. Their pitching staff is like a Tommy John convention, and they traded away their two best on-base guys. Give us something to make us smile!

Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:

	2013 Predictions	688 R	1388	288	25	164	HR 669 RBI	83	614	1095
	2012 Totals	701 R	1448	270	30	131	HR 667 RBI	135	505	1069

with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...

I think that Mauer's K rate is a little high, I mean last year was his highest ever, by quite a bit...Otherwise it looks very reasonable (Here's to hoping the Morneau hits that well!)

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:


with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...

Well they are losing two pretty good tablesetters.

The more I think about it, this team might be smart to move everyone up. Mauer 1, Willingham 2, etc. Get Mauer up there in the 1st with bases empty and no outs, instead of bases empty and 2 outs.

Originally Posted by thrylos98

Interesting stuff, but this does not add up:


with 33 more HRs than 2012, I hope at least 50 more RBI and 50 more Rs...
If they score fewer runs in 2013 than the did in 2012, they will have big issues...

I wrote that right in the article... I had no intention of making anything add up, just checking to see how far I was off on various things.

Question? How is Trevor Plouffe going to score as many runs as Mauer with about 75 times less on base and the lighter end of the batting order hitting behind him? But great info though.

Originally Posted by twinsfansd

Question? How is Trevor Plouffe going to score as many runs as Mauer with about 75 times less on base and the lighter end of the batting order hitting behind him? But great info though.

Homeruns, probably.