Thread: Miller: Morneau's Forecast with Twins: Cloudy

Morneau's forecast with the Twins: Cloudy | StarTribune.com

Star-Tribune's Phil Miller writes about the cloudy Twins future.

"I want to win, obviously, so that's the important thing," said Morneau, who will turn 32 in May. "If it looks like there's a chance we're going to win, I'd love to stay here. I've been here my whole career, and this is where I hope to be in the future. ... But sometimes those decisions aren't yours."

That's not a very positive outlook; I would have preferred Mostly Sunny

I like Morneau and still believe he will have a very good year in 2013. His future with the Twins is somewhat dependant on how welll Parmelee hits.
If Morneau hits and Parmelee doesn't then no one is pushing Morneau out. Kennys Vargas just spent a year in Beloit.
Another sideshow. Interesting to see how it unfolds.

It's a fair point that a lot of the thoughts about Morneau's future are assuming that Parmelee sticks. I've been as optimistic about him as anyone, but that's still a pretty big "If" given his minor league history.

Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN

I like Morneau and still believe he will have a very good year in 2013. His future with the Twins is somewhat dependant on how welll Parmelee hits.
If Morneau hits and Parmelee doesn't then no one is pushing Morneau out. Kennys Vargas just spent a year in Beloit.
Another sideshow. Interesting to see how it unfolds.

Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN

I like Morneau and still believe he will have a very good year in 2013. His future with the Twins is somewhat dependant on how welll Parmelee hits.
If Morneau hits and Parmelee doesn't then no one is pushing Morneau out. Kennys Vargas just spent a year in Beloit.
Another sideshow. Interesting to see how it unfolds.

Meh, unless Morneau takes a somewhat team friendly deal I think he is gone by the trade deadline regardless (unless we are somehow still in it)

If Parmelee doesn't "cut it" then we could always run Willingham out at 1st base or a guy like Doumit/Mauer until we find a replacement, not to mention you can always find 1st baseman on the free agent market as well for somewhat cheap.

I'd prefer Morneau stick around, but if it comes down to spending a bunch of money on him or upgrading the pitching staff/MI, I would rather spend that money on the SP/MI.

This is not about Pamelee. Parmelee could be a placeholder for whomever of Vargas/Sano/Harrison end up at 1B when the Twins are competitive again. Signing a 33 year old even to a 2 year extension (yes, folks, Morneau is past his prime) is nuts for a team that a. does not plan to complete before 2015 ish b. has a clear succession order for 1B (and OF) that includes star-quality prospects and c. has more needs than a would be aging DH (pitching, pitching, pitching).

Re-signing or extending Morneau would be akin to the re-singings of Pavano and Capps and the signing of Correia. Not. A. Good. Move. TR avoided that trap with Hunter, hope he still does with Morneau.

It sounds like he is in great physical condition. If that can translate into an MVP level performance, then I would hope that the Twins offer an extension before thinking about trading him.

I definitely think that Morneau can come back and have another very strong season. Obviously health is the key. The main reason I'd like to see him stay is because he is a Twins great, and it's always fun to see those guys stay. Can he be productive? Of course, he's not that old yet. Can he be productive for two more years? Probably.

Originally Posted by glunn

It sounds like he is in great physical condition. If that can translate into an MVP level performance, then I would hope that the Twins offer an extension before thinking about trading him.

If he has an MVP type season, the Twins won't be able to offer him the money to stay and would probably be wise not to.

Frankly, I don't see a scenario where Morneau stays with the Twins, even though I'd love it if he did. If he hits well, he'll be too expensive. If he doesn't hit well, there'd be no reason to sign him.

This article makes me want to cry......

He wants to win. I would leave if I was him.

Originally Posted by Alex

Frankly, I don't see a scenario where Morneau stays with the Twins, even though I'd love it if he did. If he hits well, he'll be too expensive. If he doesn't hit well, there'd be no reason to sign him.

If he hits well, the Twins could make him a qualifying offer sufficient to receive a draft pick if he turns them down and signs with another team. He could have a hard time finding a team willing to make him a multi-year offer given his history of injuries and lose a draft pick in the process. That could be a scenario where he takes the Twins one year offer.

Originally Posted by East Coast Twin

If he hits well, the Twins could make him a qualifying offer sufficient to receive a draft pick if he turns them down and signs with another team. He could have a hard time finding a team willing to make him a multi-year offer given his history of injuries and lose a draft pick in the process. That could be a scenario where he takes the Twins one year offer.

It does not work this way... It is a lot like the old "offering arbitration process": If the Twins offer him a qualifying offer, he has to reject it before he looks around what other teams offer. If he rejects it, the Twins get a pick and are not bound to the offer.

This is not about Pamelee. Parmelee could be a placeholder for whomever of Vargas/Sano/Harrison end up at 1B when the Twins are competitive again. Signing a 33 year old even to a 2 year extension (yes, folks, Morneau is past his prime) is nuts for a team that a. does not plan to complete before 2015 ish b. has a clear succession order for 1B (and OF) that includes star-quality prospects and c. has more needs than a would be aging DH (pitching, pitching, pitching).
Re-signing or extending Morneau would be akin to the re-singings of Pavano and Capps and the signing of Correia. Not. A. Good. Move. TR avoided that trap with Hunter, hope he still does with Morneau.

The only part of this I agree with is that re-signing Morneau is not about Parmelee. I don't think re-signing Morneau is at all similiar to Hunter. The Twins could and did replace Hunter's offensive and defensive production, much more cheaply. I don't think that is possible with Morneau, even if he doesn't quite rebound to his MVP self. He isn't that old, he can be very productive for at least several more years(if he is healthy), and it is far too early to speculate on what his contract will be. I don't think that all the young prospects will be ready to replace the offensive production of both Morneau and Willingham for at least a few years. I would much rather keep Morneau around rather than Willingham.


So, if Morneau proves himself healthy and productive, I would like to see the Twins re-sign him, though not for more than 3 years. His contract would have to pretty outlandish to actually prevent the Twins from adding necessary help. That is assuming that most of the hot young prospects turn into productive major leaguers. If they don't, the Twins won't be able to afford enough to sign enough free agents to be competitive, anyway.

As everyone knows the Twins certainly have the money to re-sign Morneau. I also don't think it is unreasonable, depending how things go this year, to expect competition by 2015. A two year extension to Morneau puts him in that window.

Originally Posted by East Coast Twin

If he hits well, the Twins could make him a qualifying offer sufficient to receive a draft pick if he turns them down and signs with another team. He could have a hard time finding a team willing to make him a multi-year offer given his history of injuries and lose a draft pick in the process. That could be a scenario where he takes the Twins one year offer.

I'm definitely thinking this is going to be the best route to take. If Morneau accepts the qualifying offer (and he damn well might, even after a good season, considering his old teammate Lohse's experiences this winter) they'd get him on a one-year, ~$13 million deal for 2014. Maybe a bit of an overpay, but they'll be able to afford it and the one-year commitment is gravy with his age, injury history and potential minor-league replacements coming along.