Thread: Zulgad: Dozier Has a Plan and A New Position

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

And his fielding percentage would've tied Castro's for worst in the league. Again, where is a stat that puts him at "neutral"?

Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Any zone based data puts Dozier in the middle of the pack. RZR has him 18th of 29. UZR says he's worth -1.4 runs per 150 games. DRS likes him for +1 runs. RF/9 likes him. Baseball reference likes his defense for 1/2 a win. All on his profile pages on fangraphs or baseball-reference.

You realize that pretty much all of these stats are best used over larger spans of data right? Even the loudest proponents of these systems acknowledge one season of data can be faulty and therefore the numbers are best used in a larger context. So you're quoting a half a season's worth of data using stats best employed within the context of multiple seasons.

Doesn't seem like a real sound argument to me. Fact is, the kid was committing a lot of errors, his defense was hardly neutral.

Originally Posted by snepp

I don't suppose having a putrid pitching staff that led the league in balls in play would have anything to do with that?

Yes, but we're talking about 1 extra ball hit into one of his "zones" per 9 innings, compared to the players who saw the least action. Scaling everything up to 1440 innings, and holding RZR constant at .796, Dozier would make 407 of 511 "in zone" plays, 30 less than the most efficient player Ian Desmond (according to RZR). I don't know what that equate to in terms of runs. Something like 8-12 maybe.

I bring it up because its disingenuous to look at errors without at least weighing them against plays made. Dozier may have the high error total because the PTC staff induces a lot of ground balls his way. Or, he just may be getting to balls that players don't often get to. The eye test tells me its the former but again, we're talking pretty small scale differences in terms of efficiency at converting these balls into outs.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

You realize that pretty much all of these stats are best used over larger spans of data right? Even the loudest proponents of these systems acknowledge one season of data can be faulty and therefore the numbers are best used in a larger context. So you're quoting a half a season's worth of data using stats best employed within the context of multiple seasons.

Doesn't seem like a real sound argument to me. Fact is, the kid was committing a lot of errors, his defense was hardly neutral.

RZR is a pretty straightforward metric. At least it provides some context to what plays he was or wasn't making, which fielding percentage doesn't try to do.

But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

But, if you're going to site a stat like fielding percentage instead, put it in some context to the rest of the league. He was a whopping -.013 worse than average.

You mean like when I said he would tie Castro for worst in the entire league?

Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Worst was not that bad last year. Castro is an alright defender.

Either way he wasnt very good. I hope he can play better though.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Either way he wasnt very good. I hope he can play better though.

I think he will. According to nearly everyone in the Twins organization, Dozier is a much better defender than we saw last year. Gardy's enthusiasm regarding Dozier prior to the year would seem to confirm that. (I can't imagine Gardy loving the kid if his defense wasn't solid.) It's one of the reasons I'm dubious about the Twins playing Dozier at 2B this spring. I'd rather he play SS in AAA than 2B in MLB.

Originally Posted by John Bonnes

It's one of the reasons I'm dubious about the Twins playing Dozier at 2B this spring. I'd rather he play SS in AAA than 2B in MLB.

Have they soured on his ability to ever be an everyday shortstop? Or is it more a matter of their apparent love of Florimon's defense?

Originally Posted by snepp

Have they soured on his ability to ever be an everyday shortstop? Or is it more a matter of their apparent love of Florimon's defense?

I don't know. I might go with option C: they're just so desperate to find solutions for their middle infield spots that they're jousting windmills.

Or tilting windmills, for the medieval nerds among us.