Zulgad: Dozier Has a Plan and A New Position

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

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Sample size and the reliability of a partial season predicting the future is often misunderstood.

Dozier has an OPS of 603 after a sample of 340 plate appearances. That's not good, but not enough data to predict the future with any reliability.

If Dozier were later in his career, OPS would stabilize at 500 plate appearances. He has a few other factors working early in his career. His age still puts him in the growth phase. He limited time at the major league level still leaves room for growth.

For players like Dozier, the second 500 plate appearances will be the better indicator. The Twins invested those 1000 plate appearances in Valencia and Casilla without a pay off. Their patience with some others (like Bartlett, Hunter, Morneau, Gagne...) did pay off.

I don't know whether Dozier will be a solution at second base. I do know that his performance last year is not a reliable predictor of the future. The Twins are rebuilding. They should be investing plate appearances into players who can be part of the future solution. The decision the coaching and front office staff needs to make is whether the talent they have seen in Dozier merits the investment.

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season?

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I went back and re-read the posts in this thread, and didn't see anything quite like *that*. Some pointed criticism, that could be taken as constructive if Brian can eliminate the mistakes. No one especially had "given up" on Dozier, certainly not everyone. I get the feeling that you're kind of bummed out about the whole tone on the board, and if I've contributed any to that, I'm sorry, my brother. (My bit of snark was directed toward Butera and/or carrying 3 catchers, take your pick.)

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

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Not me...if given one spot to stay at to play regularly, I think he'll be a good MLB player. Problem is, what are the odds that happens under Gardy?

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Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

So, just to clarify, everyone on this board has completely given up on Dozier's ability to be a competent middle infielder based on a half-season? Dozier gets it. He is a baseball player. Hopefully 2013 looks a lot more like 2011 than 2012.

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Personally , Dozier is the only one of the 4 who could be anything useful in 2015 , asa for Brian making more errors then Florimon (with out looking it up ) i believe if you compare to the same number of games played they are within 1 or 2 errors, but Brian is a much better hitter and always will be , nothing in Florimons past suggests he will ever be any thing more then average at his best , while Dozier could exceede and eclispe any thing florimon hope to obtain hittting wise

I certainly haven't given up on Dozier, but I don't see why we have to pretend he played well last year. He was pretty brutal in the field and at the plate. If he's part of this team's future, it wasn't because he was impressive during his major league stint last year. I hope he gets another good, long look this year.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

Not me...if given one spot to stay at to play regularly, I think he'll be a good MLB player. Problem is, what are the odds that happens under Gardy?

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The same as any other manager. I never understand posts like this. Is it Gardy's fault that he barely hit and struggled with routine plays? I guarantee Gardy would love him to come up and seize a middle infield position but should he have a lower threshold than any other major league manager?

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

I certainly haven't given up on Dozier, but I don't see why we have to pretend he played well last year. He was pretty brutal in the field and at the plate. If he's part of this team's future, it wasn't because he was impressive during his major league stint last year. I hope he gets another good, long look this year.

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He is a marginal major league regular. It is not uncommon to struggle the first go round, the key is the adjustments he makes this offseason. It might help that he is at an easier position.

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

I certainly haven't given up on Dozier, but I don't see why we have to pretend he played well last year. He was pretty brutal in the field and at the plate. If he's part of this team's future, it wasn't because he was impressive during his major league stint last year. I hope he gets another good, long look this year.

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And Florimon gives you more confedence in his ability? .219 compared to ? .236? im guessing since florimon was Ryans pickup , he is being spoon fed shortstop to appease Terry

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Originally Posted by drjim

The same as any other manager. I never understand posts like this. Is it Gardy's fault that he barely hit and struggled with routine plays? I guarantee Gardy would love him to come up and seize a middle infield position but should he have a lower threshold than any other major league manager?

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Im guessing he is refering to Rons urnning to have multipul positions per player and continued musical position game he plays .

We had, what, 18 or 19 different lineups in the first 20 games last year...and people were fairly healthy at that point. Wasn't out of necessity...wasn't because people were tired and needed a rest...

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Originally Posted by johnnydakota

Im guessing he is refering to Rons urnning to have multipul positions per player and continued musical position game he plays .

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To which I would respond how many times in the Gardy's tenure did he have players good enough to play every day in the infield? And during those times did he move them around constantly?

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Originally Posted by drjim

To which I would respond how many times in the Gardy's tenure did he have players good enough to play every day in the infield? And during those times did he move them around constantly?

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When Hudson and Hardy were healthy, they played. That is the last time, and one of the few times when Gardy had big league regulars at second and short. Dozier should develop into a much better hitter than Florimon or Escobar. He has a moderate amount of power and will steal a few bases. Considering the lack of power at so many positions, Brian should be given the longest look as a middle infield starter. I was hoping that the team would give him another fair shot at shortstop. While he didn't play well defensively, I thought he showed enough hands, range and arm to be an adequate major league shortstop.

Dozier in 2011 - .895 OPS in Fort Myers, .885 OPS in New Britain.
His only time in AAA was last year. 200 PA, .623 OPS. OK, that was a tough year.
Decent chance he can be very productive in MLB. I'd be amazed if they don't give him every opportunity.

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Originally Posted by drjim

He is a marginal major league regular. It is not uncommon to struggle the first go round, the key is the adjustments he makes this offseason. It might help that he is at an easier position.

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Yeah, that's fine and I'm not saying he can't do that. I'm just correcting the assertion some have made about Dozier that he was good defensively or offensively last year. He wasn't, he was pretty brutal. Just calling a spade a spade, not making any pronouncements about his future based on that.

Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

Except he wasn't brutal defensively. On balance, he was neutral

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Based on what? As just one example, if he had continued at the pace he established in his 83 games over the full season he would have led the entire league in errors at shortstop. What are you basing your assessment on?

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

We had, what, 18 or 19 different lineups in the first 20 games last year...and people were fairly healthy at that point. Wasn't out of necessity...wasn't because people were tired and needed a rest...

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3B was unsettled, Right still unsettled as well as the middle infield because Casilla played like Casilla. So what is your point?

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Based on what? As just one example, if he had continued at the pace he established in his 83 games over the full season he would have led the entire league in errors at shortstop. What are you basing your assessment on?

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He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

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And his fielding percentage would've tied Castro's for worst in the league. Again, where is a stat that puts him at "neutral"?

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

He also would have lead baseball in plays per inning if he'd stayed on his current pace.

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I don't suppose having a putrid pitching staff that led the league in balls in play would have anything to do with that?