Thread: Article: Roster Projections Part 1: Pitchers and Catchers

Starters: Diamond, Worley, Correia Pelfrey, Hendriks (DeVries if Diamond needs a fill-in for a couple of weeks)
Relievers: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Fien, Roenicke, Pressly, DeVries (LR, spot starter)

Burnett was at least a +WAR guy last year, but just barely. Swarzak wasn't even close. I'd like to see what some of the other guys can do and make them earn their way back. Let's not keep a Jeff Gray-type performer on the roster as long as we did last year.

As for Gibson, I say start him in AAA giving him 60-70 pitches a start and hopefully have him ramped up by mid-May, early June. They have an abundance of starters in AAA, have one of them be Gibson's scheduled relief. Gibson pitches first 4-5, followed by Vazquez or Swarzak. Or better yet, have him spend April in warm Ft.Myers and then send him to AAA.

Originally Posted by AM.

The Opening Day Starter for Your 2013 Minnesota Twins:

Kevin Correia.

If Diamond doesn't start opening day, it had better be Worley. I think heads will explode across TD if it is Correia.

If you are considering injuries or the possibility of injuries, nobody should really be at 100%, right? Actually might be kind of interesting to see your health forecast here -- Correia would certainly be the top starter then, probably at the max percentage for pitchers (whatever that would be - 98%?).

Echoing some of the other comments: Gibson is way too high (dude's never pitched in MLB and has barely pitched since surgery) and Deduno is probably a bit too low (he should be notably ahead of Walters and Vasquez).

In the bullpen, Burnett really should be 100% (even though many of us are not fans), and Swarzak's probably close to 100% if not for the injury. Tim Wood is too high (I don't think he's guaranteed anything), as are Pressly (always bet against the Rule 5 pick!) and Thielbar (although Seth seems to be a fan).

I hope Butera at 95% is too high, but you're probably right, unless the Twins come to some interesting arrangement with Mauer, Doumit, and Herrmann.

Originally Posted by DAM DC Twins Fans

I hope the Twins only carry two catchers and keep an extra IF so no Butera.

If I did the math right, 95% x 15% means there is about a 14% chance the Twins will carry four.

/ I know, I know, 95% + 15% = 110% meaning about a 10% chance of some injury.

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do?

Also, why do we need three catchers again? Butera didn't start the season with the Twins last year. Here's hoping they don't waste a roster spot on him again, at least not on the opening day roster.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do?

Because if he's going to be a starter long-term, keeping him on a starter's routine is more important.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

If Gibson's innings will be limited, why waste them in AAA? Why not make him the long man and bring him into the rotation when he's up to 50 innings or do?

Also, why do we need three catchers again? Butera didn't start the season with the Twins last year. Here's hoping they don't waste a roster spot on him again, at least not on the opening day roster.

Certainly extended spring training is an option for Gibson to limit his pitches, isn't it?

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Certainly extended spring training is an option for Gibson to limit his pitches, isn't it?

I'm not positive about this, but I believe that players on extended ST accrue major league service time (similar to players on rehab assignments). If they were going to do that they may as well just send him to Rochester and get the extra year of control.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

If I did the math right, 95% x 15% means there is about a 14% chance the Twins will carry four.

Don't bother with this... the cumulative percentages say the Twins will bring 17.8 pitchers/catchers north on the 25-man active roster. I would sure hope it's closer to 15.

The article is great, there's actual names projected at the bottom, and we all get the point of the percentages, but I do wish Seth would take just a few extra minutes to have the math add up right.

Then have Gibson start and have a designated reliever in the majors. If the reliever gets tired, call up the next guy from AAA....you know, use AAA for flexibility, like other teams do.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Then have Gibson start and have a designated reliever in the majors. If the reliever gets tired, call up the next guy from AAA....you know, use AAA for flexibility, like other teams do.

You've also got a third-string catcher with a live arm who'd love to get into games...

Brunett and Swarzak are the guys on the bubble. If Pressly shows stuff, he could make Swarzak expendable. Brunett still has options. Use them, Twins. I would rather see Roeincke or Wood be a palcesetter in 2013 and give us another season of Burnett, otherwise, consider him gone when he enters arbitration year 2 anyways. I do wish we had anyone but Butera as the third catcher/bench bat. It is a weakness the Twins don't need.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

Because if he's going to be a starter long-term, keeping him on a starter's routine is more important.

Then he hits the 130 inning peak and is shut down in August, using up most of his inning in AAA and not progressing like he needs to. Think of Santana as a model fo a guy who transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation. It's not that difficult.

Originally Posted by mcrow

If Harden is healthy and pitching anything like he used to he will be on the roster, a couple of big "ifs" though.

It wasn't rotator cuff surgery, so I think there's a better than 4% chance. I'd say it's as good as any of the other non-roster invitees.

Originally Posted by cmathewson

Then he hits the 130 inning peak and is shut down in August, using up most of his inning in AAA and not progressing like he needs to. Think of Santana as a model fo a guy who transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation. It's not that difficult.

Bullpen routine is completely different from starter routine. He's coming off of a major injury. The best thing that can happen to him this year is that he gets locked in his routine and gets his strength built back up with an eye towards the long term. Having him spend a chunk of the year not knowing if he's throwing that day, the next day, or whenever isn't useful in his buildup towards starting.

Santana pitched out of the pen initially as a way to hide him on the roster. Then he spent the better part of the next two years relieving as well. That was his routine, and then he worked over to starting. Minus a few rehab outings, Gibson has been starting exclusively his whole career, and should remain on his starter's routine. Period. His 130, 150, or however many innings he throws this year aren't make or break for the Twins' 2013 fortunes, but keeping him healthy and progressing towards a full workload next year and beyond is certainly going to be a much bigger factor in their successes in those seasons.

If Ron decides to keep Drew , our bench could posibly be Butrea,Escobar,Clete Thomas and Florimon.....another murders row in the making? And why, because of maybe 2-3 at bats over the entire season?

Originally Posted by jay

The article is great, there's actual names projected at the bottom, and we all get the point of the percentages, but I do wish Seth would take just a few extra minutes to have the math add up right.

Seth, I was wrong and apologize. I think you're including the possibility that a few guys are brought north on the DL (Pelfrey, Diamond, Swarzak, etc) and your numbers are just fine. It would be weird/confusing to show the probability for those guys at far less than what you think it will be to account for the possibility they get DL'ed.

Any thought on Perez's chances of making the opening day roster?