Thread: Murphy: 5 Questions About The Twins

Originally Posted by spideyo

With it only being the second season of the new CBA rules, it's hard to guess what people will be doing at the trade deadline, but it certainly seemed like teams were a bit more reluctant to give up much for the half season rental players. It certainly isn't going to help anything that Morneau has only played 38 games from September 1st on over the last four years. I think if he is doing well it's going to piss off a lot of season ticket holders (who are already a bit pissed at the team) if they get rid of him for some kids who may or may not pan out. It's not like we're going to be able to get the next Mike Trout or Stephen Strausberg for him.

Last year the Marlins traded two of their top ten prospects for a half season rental of 36 year old Carlos Lee. He had a .747 OPS and hadn't OPS'd above .800 in 3 years. So even with Morneau's injury history I think it's reasonable to believe he'd bring back something of significance at the trade deadline.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

Last year the Marlins traded two of their top ten prospects for a half season rental of 36 year old Carlos Lee. He had a .747 OPS and hadn't OPS'd above .800 in 3 years. So even with Morneau's injury history I think it's reasonable to believe he'd bring back something of significance at the trade deadline.

I'm pretty sure nothing related to the Marlins is reasonable to believe

Originally Posted by spideyo

I'm pretty sure nothing related to the Marlins is reasonable to believe

How about a half season of Shane Victorino, .724 OPS, for a top ten prospect and a former top ten prospect that had graduated to the bigs?

Reed Johnson + Paul Maholm brought back Braves top 10 prospect Arodys Vizcaino plus another prospect

Wandy Rodriguez (year and a half of control left) brought back a top 10 prospect Grossman from Pirates plus 2 others

Perhaps Morneau won't bring back a top overall top 100 prospect like Span did but that doesn't mean he won't bring back something. Certainly his value is dependent on his production in the first half. We'll have to wait and see.

Originally Posted by beckmt

Murphy seems to feel that Parmalee will replace Morneau, I feel it is wait and see. If Parmalee gets off to a slow start, Arcia rakes in Rochester and Morneau hits well here it is time to extend Morneau, bring up Arcia and exile Parmalee as one of those great AAA hitters who cannot make it in the big time.

Not after his .355/.443/.592 September in 2011... Work comes to worse, he would be in the same conversation as Greg Jefferies and Shane Spencer

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Also, I keep seeing people refer to Aaron Hicks' 2012 season in New Britain as "solid." Illustrates to me a fundamental misunderstanding of just how brilliant his season truly was.

So .286/.384/.460 with 32 SB is a brilliant season? Good yes, brilliant... I wouldn't go that far. I still want him to hit exclusively as a RH.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

So .286/.384/.460 with 32 SB is a brilliant season? Good yes, brilliant... I wouldn't go that far. I still want him to hit exclusively as a RH.

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".

Wow, hard to please everybody. 2012 was most certainly a break-out year for Hicks, finally beginning to realize his full potential and holding much promise for years to come. And better yet, his breakout really kicked in when he was moved to leadoff full-time. He is on a much higher career flight path than Michael Bourn, even though he started out his professional career 2 years younger than Bourn did (Bourn minor league stats: .284/.378/.392/.770 Hicks: .271/.379/.421/.800 with similar defensive-range stats). If the biggest concern that we have with Hicks is questioning his switch-hitting ability, we're going to get a good one, one to at least remind of the days of Puckett and Hunter, if not very conceivably surpass them.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".

Only 4th? SLACKER! :-)

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

But why would Justin sign here, if he can go elsewhere? That is the part I do not compute.

Because he lives here (and Vancouver and Arizona), his wife and her family are here, because the money is good and his kids are set for life... I get what you're saying, but as with any real job, there have to be 'intangible' factors. You would hope that there is more to the game than "just a business" for some of them.

That said, I think that if Gardy goes, Morneau won't want to stick around anyway. I think they have to see what they have in Parmelee and Arcia, and if Morneau can be healthy all year. If so, I have nothing against locking up Morneau for another 3 years at something like $20-25 million, if he'll take it. I appreciate guys that that want to stay and actually get to.

Yeah, if healthy I wouldn't mind locking Justin up to a 2-3 year deal, I think people forget just how dominant Justin was when he was healthy, I like Parmelee but I don't think he will ever be an average 1st baseman hitting wise. Morneau could stick until Sano is ready.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Because he lives here (and Vancouver and Arizona), his wife and her family are here, because the money is good and his kids are set for life... I get what you're saying, but as with any real job, there have to be 'intangible' factors. You would hope that there is more to the game than "just a business" for some of them.

That said, I think that if Gardy goes, Morneau won't want to stick around anyway. I think they have to see what they have in Parmelee and Arcia, and if Morneau can be healthy all year. If so, I have nothing against locking up Morneau for another 3 years at something like $20-25 million, if he'll take it. I appreciate guys that that want to stay and actually get to.

To me Morneau is definitely the kind of player that stays in Minnesota if given a reasonable offer, he has solid roots , genuinely seems to love the community and both he and his wife contribute greatly to it in a variety of ways.

I also think there is some merit in keeping him, he's going to surprise a lot of people this year in my estimation and it's going to make people think twice. I get it that trading him at peak value is the optimal time to do it but the offer better be at least upper tier pitching or MI prospects or I say keep him. I agree with Seth though that if Gardy goes, I'm not sure Morneau re-ups.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

4th best OPS in the freaking Eastern League and a plus defender. Yeah, that's a step beyond just "good".

In qualified players yes. In reality no. I think Hicks will be good, especially as a potential GG CF that posts a nice OBP and SB. He will be a good player, I have my doubts about his contact rate and power.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Because he lives here (and Vancouver and Arizona), his wife and her family are here, because the money is good and his kids are set for life... I get what you're saying, but as with any real job, there have to be 'intangible' factors. You would hope that there is more to the game than "just a business" for some of them.

That said, I think that if Gardy goes, Morneau won't want to stick around anyway. I think they have to see what they have in Parmelee and Arcia, and if Morneau can be healthy all year. If so, I have nothing against locking up Morneau for another 3 years at something like $20-25 million, if he'll take it. I appreciate guys that that want to stay and actually get to.

I cant speak or him, but I am pretty sure MWW was being sarcastic. (why would any free agents want to play for the Twins!)....

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

In qualified players yes. In reality no. I think Hicks will be good, especially as a potential GG CF that posts a nice OBP and SB. He will be a good player, I have my doubts about his contact rate and power.

We get it. You don't like Hicks. That doesn't discount the fact that THREE players who got noteworthy amount of PAs put up a better OPS in a league that isn't a hitters' paradise. All three were a minimum of two years older than him. He also was 4th in SB and led the league in walks. That is a great performance across the board for a guy who didn't turn 23 until after the end of the season.

To focus so much on his contact rate and power while overlooking top notch defense with a great arm and excellent plate discipline just shows that you're grasping at straws to downplay his season. Hicks isn't going to be a 30 HR guy, but he has double digit HR pop, which is more than can be said for the guys who have been manning CF for the Twins since Hunter departed. For someone who has been such a staunch Plouffe supporter, I would think you'd be more excited by a breakout season from a toolsy player. (The kind of season Plouffe never actually put up, yet you continued championing his cause throughout.)

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

In qualified players yes. In reality no.

Reaching here a little bit, aren't we Smerf?

I was being both sarcastic, and not. Sarcastic because Ryan said he could not give his money away, and I read here every day that no one wants to sign here. Not sarcastic because I think he wants to win, and there are years and years of evidence that Ryan will always play for the future, and never go out and spend money to win. If Justin has 3 or so more years left, and he wants to win, won't he follow Hunters path?

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I was being both sarcastic, and not. Sarcastic because Ryan said he could not give his money away, and I read here every day that no one wants to sign here. Not sarcastic because I think he wants to win, and there are years and years of evidence that Ryan will always play for the future, and never go out and spend money to win. If Justin has 3 or so more years left, and he wants to win, won't he follow Hunters path?

Hunter and Santana said the Twins are always playing for the future, never going for it in the now...and if that's the case, why should they stay? Not sure if Morny feels the same way but I wouldn't be surprised if, now, he does.

Morneau is my favorite player, so seeing him leave MN hurts. I do think he should be traded at the deadline if he's producing and we are not in it. He should get something very nice for the future (I'd be gunning for an SP or a middle infielder). That said, I could still see Morneau, with his roots here, resigning in the offseason, and I think there's a good case for it. Minnesota is basically his home. Doumit is here for 2 more seasons, and there really isn't a DH in the pipeline. If the team's plan is to keep Mauer at C for the forseable future, Morneau could come back and rotate with Parmalee between DH/1B, and Doumit would shift more to a backup C in his final year.

If Morneau is finally healthy, a 3 year deal would be good for both of them.