Thread: Re: Mauer's Contract

Originally Posted by 70charger

but I would guess that Pujols and especially Prince Fielder are going to look pretty silly when they're still getting more than Mauer when they're 40 years old and/or 800 pounds.

People will think you are exaggerating, but if anything you are underestimating. Pujols will actually be nearly 42 when his contract ends.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

People will think you are exaggerating, but if anything you are underestimating. Pujols will actually be nearly 42 when his contract ends.

I agree. By comparison, the Twins are pretty well protected against age and gross obesity when it comes to Joe Mauer. I think that Pujols is easily one of the best baseball players not only of our generation but of all time - an inner circle hall of famer when he's done. But that doesn't mean that he won't be today's A-Rod when he's at the end of his contract. Sucking up dollars, producing little on the field.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Could it be that a double by Mauer scores someone like Revere from first ahead of him, while a double by Willingham leaves Mauer on third waiting to be driven in? This is a reason I don't trust RISP statistics very much.

Um, seriously? First, the first sentence was just about runner on base...not in scoring position. And I'm sorry...if you don't trust RISP stats, there's really nowhere to go from there. Might as well just say I don't trust any stats that doesn't back up my view. You are, absolutely, the first one I've ever seen to blow off RISP numbers...so you have that going for you...

Originally Posted by ThePuck

You are, absolutely, the first one I've ever seen to blow off RISP numbers

You need to get out more.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

You are, absolutely, the first one I've ever seen to blow off RISP numbers

Holy balls, really? The vast majority of the sabr community discounts them entirely.

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

This post is stupid. Please leave.

Dave, come on. I know you're frustrated with the negativity around here but that is a direct violation of the forum rules and it brings nothing to the conversation (and usually, only helps fan the flames). I just shook my head when I read that post but there's no reason to tell the guy to leave.

It's that kind of posting that sent BYTO's traffic numbers from "extremely strong community" in 2008 to "circling the drain" in 2012. You often state how much you miss BYTO but the general attitude of that site is unsustainable over the long-term and posts like that were a large reason for its slow demise. If you tell enough people to leave because you think they're stupid, guess what happens?

They leave and you're left arguing with yourself.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Holy balls, really? The vast majority of the sabr community discounts them entirely.

I thought they've blown off RBI numbers...not numbers with RISP. Two different things there. I haven't ever heard of SABR people blowing off what a player does with RISP, and why would they? That would make no sense.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

You need to get out more.

If you say so

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I thought they've blown off RBI numbers...not numbers with RISP. Two different things there. I haven't ever heard of SABR people blowing off what a player does with RISP, and why would they?

Because it's been proven time and time again that a player hits the same with RISP that he does with the bases empty. Any fluctuation above or below that career norm is a temporary blip in an otherwise consistent arc. Give a guy enough ABs with RISP and he'll end up in the same place as his non-RISP numbers.

There are a few outliers to that "rule". I think Molitor was one. Maybe Gwynn was another. There were 3-4 guys over the course of 30+ years that didn't revert to career averages with RISP. Such a small fraction of players that it's essentially a given that a player will be the same with or without men on base.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

and why would they?

Because it's been shown that players will, over time, perform basically the same w/RISP as they do as a whole. Dramatically cutting the sample size, for little (or no) benefit, doesn't serve much purpose.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Because it's been proven time and time again that a player hits the same with RISP that he does with the bases empty. Any fluctuation above or below that career norm is a temporary blip in an otherwise consistent arc. Give a guy enough ABs with RISP and he'll end up in the same place as his non-RISP numbers.

There are a few outliers to that "rule". I think Molitor was one. Maybe Gwynn was another. There were 3-4 guys over the course of 30+ years that didn't revert to career averages with RISP. Such a small fraction of players that it's essentially a given that a player will be the same with or without men on base.

So why do the writers at Fangraphs, who are SABR people, write the info I posted that started this conversation?

'Mauer drove in 18.1 percent of the runners on base for his plate appearances. Not only did that rank eighth-highest in the entire league, it topped Willingham's mark of 16.3 percent. Mauer converted a higher percentage of his RBI chances than Willingham (even though Willingham had a career year), but Willingham had 45 more runners on base in 26 fewer plate appearances because Mauer was on constantly in front of him.'

Originally Posted by ThePuck

So why do the writers at Fangraphs, who are SABR people, write the info I posted that started this conversation?

'Mauer drove in 18.1 percent of the runners on base for his plate appearances. Not only did that rank eighth-highest in the entire league, it topped Willingham's mark of 16.3 percent. Mauer converted a higher percentage of his RBI chances than Willingham (even though Willingham had a career year), but Willingham had 45 more runners on base in 26 fewer plate appearances because Mauer was on constantly in front of him.'

When I've seen Mauer's RISP numbers quoted, it's usually a retaliatory statement in response to "herp derp Mauer doesn't drive in enough runners to make $20m herp derp". It's refuting a misconception, not attempting to put weight into RISP numbers.

That's my experience, anyway. YMMV.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

Could it be that a double by Mauer scores someone like Revere from first ahead of him, while a double by Willingham leaves Mauer on third waiting to be driven in? This is a reason I don't trust RISP statistics very much.

Parker wrote a piece that suggested Mauer did benefit from batting behind speedy baserunners, specifically, on ground balls that he pulled.

Twins Daily - Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

When I've seen Mauer's RISP numbers quoted, it's usually a retaliatory statement in response to "herp derp Mauer doesn't drive in enough runners to make $20m herp derp". It's refuting a misconception, not attempting to put weight into RISP numbers.

That's exactly how I see it.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

When I've seen Mauer's RISP numbers quoted, it's usually a retaliatory statement in response to "herp derp Mauer doesn't drive in enough runners to make $20m herp derp". It's refuting a misconception, not attempting to put weight into RISP numbers.

That's my experience, anyway. YMMV.

Correction to what I wrote. That quote came from Gleeman, not Fangraphs, so apologies on that. Wasn't purposely trying to deceive right there, just thought I had gotten it from Fangraphs...

Mauer's career numbers with RISP are quite a bit better than his normal numbers though. 20 points in BA, 55 points in OBP, 30 points in slg%

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Parker wrote a piece that suggested Mauer did benefit from batting behind speedy baserunners, specifically, on ground balls that he pulled.

Twins Daily - Joe Mauer pulled through in 2012

I think it's pretty obvious that high contact, high average, low power guys will benefit the most from hitting behind speedy baserunners.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Correction to what I wrote. That quote came from Gleeman, not Fangraphs, so apologies on that. Wasn't purposely trying to deceive right there, just thought I had gotten it from Fangraphs...

No worries. Gleeman isn't exactly a traditional baseball RBI guy. The point is the same.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I think it's pretty obvious that high contact, high average, low power guys will benefit the most from hitting behind speedy baserunners.

Specifically a lefthanded one.

In any event, I learned something today, which is awesome. I'm going to research that a bit more.

My sincerest apologies to ashburyjohn.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Mauer's career numbers with RISP are quite a bit better than his normal numbers though. 20 points in BA, 55 points in OBP, 30 points in slg%

He could be one of those outlier players. While I haven't seen enough evidence to prove the idea, I don't think it's a coincidence that the players with extraordinary bat control (Gwynn, Molitor) were the "outliers" in that RISP study. It makes sense that the guys who can choose where the ball is hit do better with RISP than the "swing away" type of players.

But those guys are an extremely rare breed. Is Mauer on the level of a Molitor and Gwynn? Right now, yes. Whether that stays true as he ages is another matter entirely.