Thread: Article: The Road to Rebuild: Trading Away Assets

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Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

Originally Posted by glunn

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

Absolutely. It looks like Miguel Sano will be the next great Twins first baseman, but that's still probably 3 years away. Give Morneau a 2-3 year extension this summer if he's hitting. Justin provides the team a lot more potential for value by being on their roster and healthy than he does in a potential trade.

Willingham makes a lot more sense to be traded, as the team picking him up will be getting a cost controlled slugger for a year and a half. I could see Baltimore being very interested if their season breaks good again this year. Or perhaps Texas, who will likely be in the need for some RH bats once Nellie Cruz gets suspended and or hurt like he does. Heck, they could probably use him already.

Originally Posted by glunn

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

California math?

Originally Posted by LoganJones

Absolutely. It looks like Miguel Sano will be the next great Twins first baseman, but that's still probably 3 years away. Give Morneau a 2-3 year extension this summer if he's hitting. Justin provides the team a lot more potential for value by being on their roster and healthy than he does in a potential trade.

Willingham makes a lot more sense to be traded, as the team picking him up will be getting a cost controlled slugger for a year and a half. I could see Baltimore being very interested if their season breaks good again this year. Or perhaps Texas, who will likely be in the need for some RH bats once Nellie Cruz gets suspended and or hurt like he does. Heck, they could probably use him already.

I agree about Willingham. I think this off-season represented his highest trade value. Two years of a power bat at $7 million/year is a screaming value given the contracts given other over-30 OFs like Cody Ross and Shane Victorino. Unfortunately, it appears the off-season dealing is all but over. There are very few obvious trades for Willingham at this stage. So, I am hopeful Willingham is healthy and productive in the first half and brings back a prospect mid-summer.

Originally Posted by snepp

California math?

Nope...if it was California math, he'd have written 'Morneau will be age 32'...and he would have gotten the birth month right as well... :-)

Running a shrewd business demands staying as emotionally neutral as possible. Everyone has their price.

Originally Posted by glunn

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

It might depend on Parmelee. Specifically, whether he hits and can take over for Morneau at 1B without much of a dropoff, and/or whether he's a wreck in the outfield making him necessarily a 1B. I think there are some moving parts here.

On the other hand, if the Twins aren't willing to commit years to a healthy and productive Morneau, they can always given him a qualifying offer at roughly the same amount they're paying him now. If he comes back, one more year of Morneau; if not, draft pick.

A decision on Morneau is the major move still this offseason. If he looks like he really wants to test the free-agent marketplace, jettison him. You'll get something more now than later, giving another team the opportunity to extend him or make him a qualifying offer. I'm for resigning Morneau to a team friendly 203 year extension with a 4th year option. He can stay a part of the Twins and clearly move into the DH role down-the-line. You don;t develop minor league prospects to DH. Once the season starts, his price becomes $13+ million or nothing.

Originally Posted by glunn

Morneau will be age 30 this June and there are reports that he is finally healthy. Would it make sense to offer him a new contract?

Maybe if the Twins org made any effort at fielding a competitive team in the near future. The fact that the Twins did nothing to address the disasters that are their rotation and middle infield leads any reasonable person to conclude that the Twins don't concern themselves with such things.

What is the upper limit for a Morneau extension that we would be willing to live with? LaRouche's recent deal provides some context (LaRoche obtains $10MM in 2013, $12MM in 2014 and a $2MM buyout for a 2015 mutual option).

Every offseason there are cheap 1B and DH bats, so I don't like an extension. Also we have paid for enough downtime with the concussions already. If Morneau has a good year, maybe the Twins make a qualifying offer but if he declines then you take the comp pick and let Mauer/Parmelee/Doumit/Plouffe/cheap FA play 1B. This team has enough DH stiffs already. Save the money for skill players who can hit. Or pitching.

Originally Posted by Rosterman

A decision on Morneau is the major move still this offseason. If he looks like he really wants to test the free-agent marketplace, jettison him. You'll get something more now than later, giving another team the opportunity to extend him or make him a qualifying offer. I'm for resigning Morneau to a team friendly 203 year extension with a 4th year option. He can stay a part of the Twins and clearly move into the DH role down-the-line. You don;t develop minor league prospects to DH. Once the season starts, his price becomes $13+ million or nothing.

Important to note: you can't do the qualifying offer thing to players you acquired mid season.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Every offseason there are cheap 1B and DH bats, so I don't like an extension. Also we have paid for enough downtime with the concussions already. If Morneau has a good year, maybe the Twins make a qualifying offer but if he declines then you take the comp pick and let Mauer/Parmelee/Doumit/Plouffe/cheap FA play 1B. This team has enough DH stiffs already. Save the money for skill players who can hit. Or pitching.

Probably a good route to take, really.

Originally Posted by Dance with Disco Dan

I agree about Willingham. I think this off-season represented his highest trade value. Two years of a power bat at $7 million/year is a screaming value given the contracts given other over-30 OFs like Cody Ross and Shane Victorino. Unfortunately, it appears the off-season dealing is all but over. There are very few obvious trades for Willingham at this stage. So, I am hopeful Willingham is healthy and productive in the first half and brings back a prospect mid-summer.

I disagree a little on the value of Willingham being highest in the offseason. Corner bats were available only for money. Teams would prefee that over giving up prospects.

He should have the same or even more value at the deadline as teams need a final piece. Obviously health is a risk but that is also why his value might be lower right now than we think. Plus he has good value to the Twins right now.

I think the answer in both cases is they would like to keep them if the price and years are right. Less so with Willingham given the depth in the system in the OF.

Justin's performance after the AS break last year is encouraging by posting numbers close to his career averages before the health issues. However, he is going to be 32 early in the season. If he has a big year this year it won't be the yearly salary that's a problem as much as the number of years he might command. at 32 do you want to commit to more than 2-3 years?

Same goes for Willingham. He's getting to an age where you debate wether it is best for the team to have the caliber of hitter he is now for maybe a year or two more or if you are better trading for some prospects.

The problem with both of these guys could be that they would demand longer term contracts than make sense for a young, up and coming team. I suppose a lot of this will depend on if the Twins are competitive or not this year as well.

If pitchers and other free agents supposedly will mot sign here, why would Morneau? At some point, he might feel like Torii and Johan did, that Ryan never plays for the present.

Originally Posted by chuchadoro

Maybe if the Twins org made any effort at fielding a competitive team in the near future. The fact that the Twins did nothing to address the disasters that are their rotation and middle infield leads any reasonable person to conclude that the Twins don't concern themselves with such things.

The best option in the MI this offseason? Maicer Izturis? Marco Scutaro? Scutaro is 37 and Izturis has 1.5 WAR over the last 2 years. The rest of the FA list looks like crap. If there were great, young options that would fit with the org's timeline of expected comepetitiveness - good, great, grand - EVERYONE ON THE BUS. But there weren't. And this is what a re-build feels like.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

If pitchers and other free agents supposedly will mot sign here,

Supposedly is the key word. If the Twins offer enough money players will sign (and have signed) here.

Originally Posted by UCLA_YANKEE_COLA

The best option in the MI this offseason? Maicer Izturis? Marco Scutaro? Scutaro is 37 and Izturis has 1.5 WAR over the last 2 years. The rest of the FA list looks like crap. If there were great, young options that would fit with the org's timeline of expected comepetitiveness - good, great, grand - EVERYONE ON THE BUS. But there weren't. And this is what a re-build feels like.

gee i would be happy with a 0 war, it better then what we had ...average is what we strive for here..at shortstop, why ? because it an improvment...