Thread: Opening Day lineup?

For those that think Mastroianni will start the season in CF do you think the Twins sign a 4th OF type last minute or bring up one of the AAAA guys? Who is available to be the back up CF that is currently in the Twins minor leagues?

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

The Lawton-for-Reed trade was not a "sell." The Twins were half a game out of first place and trying to shore up their rotation. What selling team trades for a 36-year-old pitcher?

I agree with with the premise of your question and you are correct. My mistaken memory was that the Twins were out if it by then, what with them having a horrid run to the trading deadline and finishing the month of July going into August losing 15 out of 19 games. And it didn't get much better after the trade, from August 1 to September 1 the Twins record was 11-19. So, they traded one of their key catalysts on July 31, Matt Lawton, who led the team in OBP at nearly .400 and OPS+ (at the time) @ 120. A curious "buying mode" trade, as it left 3 rookies to pick up the pieces in RF for the last 50+ games. And let's not forget, Reed didn't actually distinguish himself positively that year.

Originally Posted by jokin

Not really a wash, although admittedly somewhat unspectacular, I thought the Twins could have done better, usually when you "sell", it's because you want to get a younger prospect with some upside.

Rick Reed WAR ( from after trade to retirement) 2001-03 3.1

Matt Lawton oWAR (from after trade) 2001-05 7.0

You're kidding, right?

A few problems... First, you're using oWAR for one player and WAR for another to make Lawton look good. Second, you're using two more years of Lawton's numbers to (again) make him look good, even though the Twins (or the Mets) didn't have him under contract.

Rick Reed's WAR:
2001: 2.8/-0.2, 2002: 2.6, 2003: 0.7

Matt Lawton's WAR:
2001: 2.0/0.2, 2002: 1.0, 2003: 1.0

It's a wash and actually slightly in Reed's favor if you want to put that much stock in WAR's accuracy. Like I said, the trade was a wash. Reed didn't pitch well for the Twins in 2001 but it wasn't a bad trade, as Reed was a solid pitcher in 2002 and a mediocre one in 2003.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

For those that think Mastroianni will start the season in CF do you think the Twins sign a 4th OF type last minute or bring up one of the AAAA guys? Who is available to be the back up CF that is currently in the Twins minor leagues?

Benson should be going north with the Twins. I really doubt Hicks starts in CF if Benson has a good spring. They will get another year of control by keeping him down and I don't think Hicks has done enough to jump over Benson yet, despite his struggles last season.

Originally Posted by jokin

I'll be stunned (and pleasantly surprised because that means TR beat enormous odds in Dumpster Dive Roulette) if Pelfrey and Harden are in the rotation for the whole month of April. What scuttlebutt there is out there is that the Twins are "hopeful" that Harden can somehow find some productivity as a reliever and we know about Pelfrey and 11 months out from TJ.

I really don't think Blackburn and Florimon should be on major league roster.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

This team isn't going to go out and add anyone for CF unless there is an injury. This is what I hope the lineup is and I think it has a good chance:

CF Mastroanni
2B Carroll
C Mauer
1B Morneau
LF Willingham
DH Parmalee
3B Plouffe
RF Benson
SS Florimon

no Doumit?

Here is how I envision the starting line-up coming out of spring training.

SS Dozier
2B Carroll
C Mauer
LF Willingham
1B Morneau
DH Doumit
RF Parmelee
3B Plouffe
CF Benson

SP Diamond

I realize that Dozier has been working out some at 2B but with SS being a premium position, I don't think the Twins give up on him there yet without a potential top line replacement in the minors, and that doesn't exist yet.

Even though his age is against him, I think Carroll gets the starting 2B job with Escobar being a possibility. Steady defense is the deciding factor with the Twins starting pitching as it is. I think Escobar and Floriman both see significant time in the starting line-up at 2b and SS respectively with the Twins allowing things to sort themselves out as the season goes.

Parmelee will start in RF. The Twins have pretty much said this since the trades of Span and Revere.

Benson gets a chance in CF with Hicks starting in AAA. I thinks Hicks may very well earn a roster spot but the Twins will start him in AAA and let Mastroianni start the season as the 4th OF. We should see Hicks if there is an injury, if Benson is horrible and plays his way out the line-up, or once June 1 is past.

My thoughts are based on how the Twins typically handle things and what seems realistic.

The thread is to guess the opening day lineup, not the long-term lineup? I have a hard time filling it out for that, cause I honestly suspect they're "giving" the MI jobs to Florimon (cause apparently he's a defensive wizard or something) and Dozier (who probably does deserve another chance, especially compared to the other options, he has the potential to hit some at least), meaning one of the only decent OBP guys (Carroll) they have isn't in the opening day lineup. Carroll's going to play a lot this year, but they're pretending they have their Middle Infield of the future on opening day to try and sell hope. I don't think it lasts as Florimon hits (misses) his way out of the lineup eventually. Reading the tea leaves says Gardenhire wants Hicks as his CF as well. So guessing:

CF - Hicks
2B - Dozier
C - Mauer
LF - WIllingham
1B - Morneau
DH - Doumit
3B - Plouffe
RF - Parmelee
SS - Florimon

If that was the opening day starters, I'd drop Dozier down to 8th and slide everyone else up, but I don't think Gardenhire does that.

1.Benson CF
2.Mauer C
3.Willingham LF
4.Morneau 1B
5.Doumit DH
6.Plouffe 3B
7.Parmelee RF
8.Dozier 2B
9.Carroll SS

SP. Diamond

They need to find out if Benson is going to produce this year, I believe he'll get that chance, considering the year of control the team will want to keep on Hicks. Florimon could just as easily start at SS but the team is better off with Carroll's bat . SS is just a mess and an all round crappy situation.

I also wouldn't be too surprised if Worley got the start over Diamond.

Originally Posted by Badsmerf

Benson should be going north with the Twins. I really doubt Hicks starts in CF if Benson has a good spring. They will get another year of control by keeping him down and I don't think Hicks has done enough to jump over Benson yet, despite his struggles last season.

If Benson plays well enough to go North with the Twins to start the season I don't see any way he isn't the opening day CF. If Benson is the 4th OF behind Mastro that means the Twins have totally given up on him (which leads to all kinds of questions). So if people think Mastro is going to get the start in CF to me that implies neither Benson nor Hicks comes north with the Twins. So who is the 4th OF in that situation?

Originally Posted by Oxtung

If Benson plays well enough to go North with the Twins to start the season I don't see any way he isn't the opening day CF. If Benson is the 4th OF behind Mastro that means the Twins have totally given up on him (which leads to all kinds of questions). So if people think Mastro is going to get the start in CF to me that implies neither Benson nor Hicks comes north with the Twins. So who is the 4th OF in that situation?

Well, I can only speak for me, but I'm hoping the Twins keep a 25 man roster with the following hitters coming out of ST:

C - Mauer/Doumit/Hermann
1B - Morneau
2B - Carroll/Dozier
3B - Plouffe
SS - Florimon/Escobar
LF - Willingham
CF - Benson/Mastroani
RF - Parmalee

Which allows them some flexibility with how they play their outfield/DH/1B. Personally, I think Doumit is ideally not an everyday player but more of a 4 times a week guy. Fingers crossed that Benson does exactly that.

The AAA team last year had no one with a good year who didn't see time in a Twins uniform.
The surprise guy could wind up being Arcia.

I'd bet he has a better chance of coming north with the team than Hicks.

Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN

The AAA team last year had no one with a good year who didn't see time in a Twins uniform.
The surprise guy could wind up being Arcia.

I'd bet he has a better chance of coming north with the team than Hicks.

That would be incredibly surprising for several reasons. First, he only has 250ish AB's at AA is only 21. Second, he doesn't have a position to play with Morneau, Parmelee and Willingham on the team. He hasn't played CF since Rookie ball in 2010.

Originally Posted by Oxtung

That would be incredibly surprising for several reasons. First, he only has 250ish AB's at AA is only 21. Second, he doesn't have a position to play with Morneau, Parmelee and Willingham on the team. He hasn't played CF since Rookie ball in 2010.

Yeah... I'd put the chance of Arcia going north with the team out of ST at zero, barring a series of freak injuries to the entire outfield.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

1. Hicks CF
2. Mauer C
3. Willingham LF
4. Morneau 1B
5. Doumit DH
6. Plouffe 3B
7. Parmelee RF
8. Dozier 2B
9. Florimon SS

SP: Diamond

Got the pitcher wrong, but otherwise Nick nailed the lineup two months ago

Originally Posted by spideyo

Got the pitcher wrong, but otherwise Nick nailed the lineup two months ago

Not to be overly pedantic, but Plouffesie and Parmeleesie are swapped in order.

Correction: Now there are lineups posted with Plouffe batting ahead of Parmelee, a change from yesterday.... so even more kudos to Nick

Originally Posted by spideyo

Got the pitcher wrong, but otherwise Nick nailed the lineup two months ago

Nicely done, Nick.

Thanks guys. I had a feeling Gardy was going to come around on Mauer hitting second, considering the other options available.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Thanks guys. I had a feeling Gardy was going to come around on Mauer hitting second, considering the other options available.

The best part is how he came to that conclusion. According tot he PiPress, he listened to his stats guy.

nicely done Nick. Now how are you at predicting the number of runs that will be scored by this lineup?