Thread: Article: Six Minnesota Twins Among MLB.com's Top 100 Prospect

Originally Posted by Parker Hageman

RE: Arcia. The only knock I see against Arcia at this juncture in his career is his ability to handle lefties. The past two years he's posted a 952 OPS v RHP but a 739 OPS v LHP. That's very Jason Kubel-like. Now, he could certainly improve upon that - especially as he catches up to the competition - but because he is going to face far more right-handed opponents over the course of his career, this is not necessarily something to be overly concerned over.

On that I agree... I just find it interesting that a toolsy guy who has outperformed Sano at nearly every stop and is on pace to make the majors at the same age is somehow 93 on the list when Sano is 12. I have no problems rating Sano high, as he has produced fairly well, but Arcia should be right up there with him. Not very guys make AA at 21, much less post a .900 + OPS with above average defense at the corner.

Originally Posted by sbknudson

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

Ryan only had a hand in two of those six players on the list, he made a nice trade for Meyer, (though some have argued he should have gotten more for Span) and he got Buxton because the Twins had the #2 overall pick, it would have been hard to pick a player at that point that would not have made the list. Bill Smith is actually behind most of the Twins top prospects, also including Rosario and Kepler.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Ryan has been GM for just over a year.

Strange then that you give him credit for the farm system.

I think Keith Law will have 7 on his list. The 6 that were on Mayo's list plus Rosario. I don't think there's any chance Berrios makes it. KLAW likes Kepler and has high hopes for him because a good ML career form Max could possibly help the sport grow in Germany. But he won't make the list either just yet. I suppose May has an outside shot.

Originally Posted by sbknudson

Wait - does this mean that TR is not the worst GM in the history of the game? All of the "Twins front office is clueless" posters on this website can't all be wrong, can they?

Personally, I'm kinda looking forward to the hover board giveaway.

People aren’t allowed to criticize his approach to the MLB roster while acknowledging that he and his staff have done a very good job rebuilding the farm system? This is not a black-and-white issue.

The scouting director for the last 6 years has been Deron Johnson if you want to give credit to someone for finding the talent.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Piranha

It's encouraging to see the rebound of the farm system, but I still think Rosario got short-changed, and should be on this list. I also think it's absolutely ridiculous that Castellanos is considered to be number 21, while Arcia is 93. Now that they're playing the same position, it astounds me that there would be that big of a gap, considering Arcia is less than a year older, and had more hits, doubles, triples, homers, and walks, with fewer strikeouts, in less at-bats than Castellanos. Just ridiculous.

Castellanos also hit over .400 in the Florida State League for half the season. I don't find it to be a slight to Arcia at all.

Originally Posted by old nurse

The scouting director for the last 6 years has been Deron Johnson if you want to give credit to someone for finding the talent.

Johnson was a big reason the Twins drafted Adam Johnson In 2000


But seriously you are right. Too often people are giving too much credit or blame to GMs for the success or failure of drafts. The GM his little or no input on the draft.

Right, the draft is on the scouting director, and how bad the GM is at assembling a good MLB roster. Trades are on the GM. So, between being awful at the ML level, and trading from the ML roster, Ryan has had a role in rebuilding the farm system. My issue is that it is not either or. You can do all that, and still sign free agents......Clearly the farm system is better. Clearly it should go up in the next two years as they ads two more top 5 picks, and Sano and Buxton are still in the minors.

It's amazing how different Bill Smith's philosophy was from Ryan's. I keep focusing on one quote, which Ryan said to LEN III after Smith was fired "I will be more patient than Bill." Pretty much sums it up. Smith was in perpetual "win now" mode. So, though 2010 was a glorious year, we saw the after affects in 2011, when the Twins had gone from penthouse to outhouse both on the major league and minor league levels.

That said, the good side of Smith's legacy will be in his signings of Sano, Kepler and Polanco. Though he was a comparative spendthrift and an impatient sort at the major league level (trading Ramos for Capps e.g.), he also spent more money on international prospects than any Twins GM.

One way or another, you have to spend money to get winning talent. I'm OK with spending for the long haul. What they can't do is what they got themselves into prior to the slotting system: Drafting the likes of Ben Revere in the first round because he agreed ahead of time to third-round money. The Twins lucked out with him, but it's not sustainable to starve signing budgets. Fortunately, they have not backed off of spending on the draft and internationally like they have at the major league level.

Originally Posted by old nurse

The scouting director for the last 6 years has been Deron Johnson if you want to give credit to someone for finding the talent.

Good point. Johnson really has changed some of the Twins approach to the draft. He's targeted hard throwers much more than Radcliff had (although there were exceptions to both - Johnson drafted Wimmers, Radcliff grabbed Garza). He drafted guys like Williams, Tootle, Hunt, Bullock, Bashore, Boyd, Bard etc, not caring if they weren't always starters or college arms. He still went after toolsy position players but also used our first #1 pick on a college bat (Levi Michael) for the first time since 96. I had always liked his drafts but there hadn't been a lot of actual results yet. That hopefully changes this year when Hicks/Gibson make the majors.

If you agree that our top 10 are (in some order) Sano, Buxton, Meyers, Gibson, Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, May, Kepler, Berrios then Johnson is responsible for guys like Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, Gibson and Berrios.

Sano, Arcia, Kepler were signed by our international department. And Ryan added Meyer and May.

Originally Posted by righty8383

Johnson was a big reason the Twins drafted Adam Johnson In 2000


But seriously you are right. Too often people are giving too much credit or blame to GMs for the success or failure of drafts. The GM his little or no input on the draft.

In the 2000 mlb draft first round there were only 3 players in the 40 pick first round that ended up very good players(Adrian Gonzales #1. Utley and Wainwright), 5 if you want to call Rocky Baldellli and Kelly Johnson very good players. Shows you how hard the job is

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Right, the draft is on the scouting director, and how bad the GM is at assembling a good MLB roster. Trades are on the GM. So, between being awful at the ML level, and trading from the ML roster, Ryan has had a role in rebuilding the farm system. My issue is that it is not either or. You can do all that, and still sign free agents......Clearly the farm system is better. Clearly it should go up in the next two years as they ads two more top 5 picks, and Sano and Buxton are still in the minors.

A GM is as only as good as the material he is given to work with. It is hard to trade when you have so few tradable assets. The trades made this year are not going to be determinable if they are good or bad for a few years. The free agent argument is something I am not going to rehash. As Nick said, not everything is black or white.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

People aren’t allowed to criticize his approach to the MLB roster while acknowledging that he and his staff have done a very good job rebuilding the farm system? This is not a black-and-white issue.

Right, but we really haven't that kind of nuance from the pessimist, and even I think you've been cringing at the negative-nancy-ism lately.

Eddie was robbed, but experts are using his injury as an excuse to leave him off the list. Which is understandable. Either way, I am hoping he gets comfortable at 2B while getting on base. Fort Myers should be a fun team to pay attention to.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Right, the draft is on the scouting director, and how bad the GM is at assembling a good MLB roster. Trades are on the GM.

The GM has more than a little say in setting the tone for the draft, and the scouts have a lot of input on any trade. Internal "scouting" of our own players has a role too. It's all about talent evaluation, and everyone involved needs to contribute no matter what their official title says. While this speaks to accountability, I'm not inclined to draw lines quite like that.

Within the first two minutes of last night's show, it was obvious that this list isn't Mayo's, but a compilation of '30 scouts and front-office types'. Apparently the list is compiled in a poll-type way, like the basketball polls, and Mayo 'breaks the ties'. Without knowing who exactly has a vote, it would be tough to represent all levels and geographical areas fairly with only 30 'voters'. Name recognition is just as likely to help (see D'arnaud) as a great season. MLB.com would be better off letting Mayo make his own list.

Ryan credit for being GM? He began as GM in the late 90's. The GM is responsible for selecting the rest of the staff of the FO as opposed to every player. The GM also defines the operating philosophy within the restrictions imposed by the owner. The staff is tasked with doing "the leg-work" on personnel and making their case to the GM for his approval. Summing up, those in the FO were Ryan's appointees because the Twins move haven't made wholesale personnel changes recently. If there were "faults" in the personnel area from the late 90's on--those are actually on Ryan. To claim that "he" fixed the minor league system is premature and ignores that Ryan bears much of the blame for the state of said system when he resumed his role as GM. Smith did spend money on internationals. Ryan--I don't remember anything except he quit bidding against the Angels for F. Rodrigez.

Revere signed for about $1MM--not 3rd round money. M. (Giancarlo) Stanton (Marlins) signed for several hundred thousand less than Revere when selected a few selections later. Basically, the Twins preferred a little, really fast guy, with a throwing disability who will steal many bases over a big, fast guy, with a great arm that will hit HRs, but rarely steal a base. Revere did state that if he was a lower draft selection that he would go to college instead.

By "about $1MM" you really meant 750k, or about 65% of the recommended bonus for that slot? And by "a few selections later" for Stanton you really meant 48 selections later, right?


Just double checking, facts can get a little fuzzy sometimes.

The Twins drafted in the bottom third of the draft order almost every year for a decade until last year. The Royals had the opposite situation. Does this not have a lot to do with the strength of the farm systems? Does a superior talent evaluation organization also play a role? One year in ten, a top 10 selection.

I keep hearing about how bad the Twins are at drafting and development. If that's the case, then why is their ranking so high? Could it be that, like perhaps Boston and St. Louis, the Twins are better at it than, say, KC, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, and a bunch of other organizations?