Baltimore Sun's Connelly Thinks Saunders Isn't Winding Up In Minnesota

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

I am mystified by the Swarzak hate. He might be the most underrated player on the team.

The guy fills a valuable, albeit less than glamorous, role and he does it pretty well. Obviously he was miscast as an MLB starter, and the Twins seem to realize that, but teams need to have a durable guy at the end of their bullpen who can come in, throw strikes and toss multiple innings after a short start while keeping the game in hand (especially with this rotation). Swarzak does those things -- 4.05 ERA as a reliever last year, 3.99 the prior year. Also, he costs nothing.

Rip on Corriea and Butera all you want, but these misguided attacks on the mop-up long reliever? Not exactly dispelling the notion that things are getting a bit too negative around here.

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I knew, if given enough opportunities, I'd find an area of disagreement. Since Swarzak is so "valuable" with his career 5.03 ERA, I'd love for you to go out on a limb and project how many teams would be after Swarzak on a waiver deal.

And I think it completely misses the point that the other side is just saying. If you have a legitimate chance to make a distinct improvement to the ballteam, fretting about whether or not the "no-upside" and very replaceable players might get claimed off a DFA is misplaced angst.

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Originally Posted by jokin

I knew, if given enough opportunities, I'd find an area of disagreement. Since Swarzak is so "valuable" with his career 5.03 ERA, I'd love for you to go out on a limb and project how many teams would be after Swarzak on a waiver deal.

And I think it completely misses the point that the other side is just saying. If you have a legitimate chance to make a distinct improvement to the ballteam, fretting about whether or not the "no-upside" and very replaceable players might get claimed off a DFA is misplaced angst.

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His ERA as a started would lead one to say that Swarzak shouldn't be a starter. As a reliever it is a different story. His k/9 was 6 and his era 4.05. For being the long man those would be good numbers. Start at the bottom of the list for teams with poor bullpens who would take those numbers. Half of the Cardinals bullpen did not have that good of numbers. DFAd and off he would go.

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Originally Posted by jokin

I knew, if given enough opportunities, I'd find an area of disagreement. Since Swarzak is so "valuable" with his career 5.03 ERA, I'd love for you to go out on a limb and project how many teams would be after Swarzak on a waiver deal.

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Well, there's no way to prove this one way or the other since the Twins smartly will not waive him, but I'm quite confident he'd be snatched up pretty quickly. Citing his career ERA isn't really relevant because it's inflated by his failures as a starter, which most likely is not his long-term role here. He's been perfectly solid and reliable as a long reliever -- a point which you apparently felt no need to address. "He sucks, look at his ERA!" is not a very nuanced argument.

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Originally Posted by jokin

And I think it completely misses the point that the other side is just saying. If you have a legitimate chance to make a distinct improvement to the ballteam, fretting about whether or not the "no-upside" and very replaceable players might get claimed off a DFA is misplaced angst.

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This is where baseball fans can be a little unrealistic. Pick your battles. You can't have a fire-balling, high-upside player in every single roster spot. You need a long reliever in your bullpen and it's not going to be a star pitcher. As the numbers show, Swarzak has been plenty useful in this capacity and he bailed the Twins out last year after a number of short starts. Also, he costs NO MONEY.

BTW, I'd be inclined to challenge the notion that he has "no upside." He was a Top 100 prospect at one point, he's 27, and his velocity has increased each year in the majors. His K-rate, while unimpressive, was above average on this squad last season. He's got as much upside as anyone who's going to be sitting at the end of your bullpen accepting a mop-up role as anything more than a transitional phase.

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Well, there's no way to prove this one way or the other since the Twins smartly will not waive him, but I'm quite confident he'd be snatched up pretty quickly. Citing his career ERA isn't really relevant because it's inflated by his failures as a starter, which most likely is not his long-term role here. He's been perfectly solid and reliable as a long reliever -- a point which you apparently felt no need to address. "He sucks, look at his ERA!" is not a very nuanced argument.


This is where baseball fans can be a little unrealistic. Pick your battles. You can't have a fire-balling, high-upside player in every single roster spot. You need a long reliever in your bullpen and it's not going to be a star pitcher. As the numbers show, Swarzak has been plenty useful in this capacity and he bailed the Twins out last year after a number of short starts. Also, he costs NO MONEY.

BTW, I'd be inclined to challenge the notion that he has "no upside." He was a Top 100 prospect at one point, he's 27, and his velocity has increased each year in the majors. His K-rate, while unimpressive, was above average on this squad last season. He's got as much upside as anyone who's going to be sitting at the end of your bullpen accepting a mop-up role as anything more than a transitional phase.

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I never said "he sucks, look at his ERA!" Of course he's better as a reliver than a starter (he can't get much worse as a SP). He's a reliever at a position that situationally, is the lowest of leverage opportunity. I said, with reiterative nuance, that what he does for his team is eminently replaceable, and from my point of view, anyway, nobody would be gnashing their teeth at any point in 2013 in certain applicable game situations that players at the level of Swarzak were somehow still on the team.

As far as "upside" you mention his increased velocity and I see, year-over-year, 5 starts in 2012 vs. 11 starts in 2011, yet a decreased K/BB, a near-doubling of his HR/9 rate, an increasing OBA and WHIP and reflected in a falling ERA+ score of 81 down from an an already substandard 94.

My argument would be for a rebuilding team like the Twins, to give the long-relief job to young guys waiting in the wings for their potential debut as starter. Low pressure and chances to hone their craft. A Swarzak represent the opposite of this philosophy.