Thread: Souhan: Ryan's Future Might Be Tied To Gardenhire's

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Are you really comparing the resources of the 3 largest AL markets to the Twins under Gardy? Really?

Are you really as obtuse as oldnurse? Really?

This is a 90 loss team IMO & if im right & Gardy gets a new contract.....fans that are left will revolt

Originally Posted by ThePuck

No, I'm comparing playoff results...you wanna give them a pass for losing 12 straight cause of payroll issues, cool...good on ya...but the team managed 94 wins with a payroll under 100M...and couldn't scrap out even one playoff win. Other teams have gotten to the second round and even into the W Series with a lower payroll than ours...
.

Not really, not in the AL anyways. MN and Oakland have only won in the playoffs when facing each other, otherwise 0-9. The 08 Rays are really the only low payroll team that had post season success, and, of course, they've been one and done twice since then. And that team was created by having high draft picks for a decade.

That's not to say that an avg payroll (the Rangers, Twins in 10) won't work in the playoffs. But actual, low, payrolls winning in the AL? Doesn't really happen.

12 games isn't really a good way to judge a manager, especially since you're trying to make sweeping generational claims about a system that has recently changed. Only the 06 and 10 Twins would've made the playoffs in the old system which covers most of baseball history (04 team would have tied Angels and had a playoff). Had their been more teams in the playoffs over the best 80 years, the 12 games you care about wouldn't be so unusual. The 69-70 Twins, for instance, got swept out both years despite avg 97.5 wins. They happened to run into a team that still managed to avg 10 more wins/season. That happens to be about the same avg difference in the Twins first round opponents in the Gardy era (1-4 in the first round).

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Man, posts like this drive me nuts. Butera has never batted 2nd. He's had 11 plate appearances in his career batting 3rd and all of them came after he relieved Mauer. (He's only had one start where he wasn't batting 8th or 9th. He batted 7th once). Gardy has done a fine job with young players and his team has always been among the youngest in the league. In fact, since he became our manager, we've had the youngest lineup 3 times, 2nd youngest 3 times, 3rd youngest 3 times and only one season where they weren't among the 5 youngest lineups in baseball. He's gotten the best out of a lot of young guys. The list of guys who have been better after they left Gardy is incredibly short. (cue paranoid Machiavellian Gardy theories now). The 5 teams that the Twins have lost to in the 1st round have averaged 101 wins/season but let's act like the 86 win Twins team should've beaten those Yankees.

How can we blindly hate on everything Twins-related if we have to rely on facts? You obviously don't understand us!

I don't think any of us knows the situation....imo, the most likely is that Ryan has his job until he does not want his job. I do not have a theory one way or the other with Gardenhire.

Originally Posted by greengoblinrulz

This is a 90 loss team IMO & if im right & Gardy gets a new contract.....fans that are left will revolt

What if the team is surprisingly competitive to near the break. Like 40-42. And then Ryan trades off Morneau, Perkins and Willingham and the team finishes 34-48 for a 74-90 record? Think they'd blame Gardy?

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Not really, not in the AL anyways. MN and Oakland have only won in the playoffs when facing each other, otherwise 0-9. The 08 Rays are really the only low payroll team that had post season success, and, of course, they've been one and done twice since then. And that team was created by having high draft picks for a decade.

That's not to say that an avg payroll (the Rangers, Twins in 10) won't work in the playoffs. But actual, low, payrolls winning in the AL? Doesn't really happen.

12 games isn't really a good way to judge a manager, especially since you're trying to make sweeping generational claims about a system that has recently changed. Only the 06 and 10 Twins would've made the playoffs in the old system which covers most of baseball history (04 team would have tied Angels and had a playoff). Had their been more teams in the playoffs over the best 80 years, the 12 games you care about wouldn't be so unusual. The 69-70 Twins, for instance, got swept out both years despite avg 97.5 wins. They happened to run into a team that still managed to avg 10 more wins/season. That happens to be about the same avg difference in the Twins first round opponents in the Gardy era (1-4 in the first round).

Wow.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Not really, not in the AL anyways. MN and Oakland have only won in the playoffs when facing each other, otherwise 0-9. The 08 Rays are really the only low payroll team that had post season success, and, of course, they've been one and done twice since then. And that team was created by having high draft picks for a decade.

That's not to say that an avg payroll (the Rangers, Twins in 10) won't work in the playoffs. But actual, low, payrolls winning in the AL? Doesn't really happen.

12 games isn't really a good way to judge a manager, especially since you're trying to make sweeping generational claims about a system that has recently changed. Only the 06 and 10 Twins would've made the playoffs in the old system which covers most of baseball history (04 team would have tied Angels and had a playoff). Had their been more teams in the playoffs over the best 80 years, the 12 games you care about wouldn't be so unusual. The 69-70 Twins, for instance, got swept out both years despite avg 97.5 wins. They happened to run into a team that still managed to avg 10 more wins/season. That happens to be about the same avg difference in the Twins first round opponents in the Gardy era (1-4 in the first round).

My premise of relative obtuseness was misplaced. You tend to dig far deeper to find your rationalizations (and go glaringly out of your way to obtusely demonstrate your historical blind spots) than olnurse.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

What if the team is surprisingly competitive to near the break. Like 40-42. And then Ryan trades off Morneau, Perkins and Willingham and the team finishes 34-48 for a 74-90 record? Think they'd blame Gardy?

Wouldn't happen. Ryan is way to indecisive. If the Twins somehow have a record like that, Ryan will imply that the Twins will be buyers at the deadline but in fact will do nothing because asking prices will be too high. By the time the trade deadline passes and it is clear the team is out of it, he will have sat on his hands too long and will have moved no vets for prospects.

2002-2010 playoffs	twins	opponents
Runs	75	124

The Twins actual record under Gardy/Jr: 6-18
The Twins Pythagorean record under Gardy/Jr: 7-17

Its probably not Gardy's fault for the Twins playoff failure. Those teams Jr constructed just weren't good enough.

Originally Posted by gunnarthor

Man, posts like this drive me nuts. Butera has never batted 2nd. He's had 11 plate appearances in his career batting 3rd and all of them came after he relieved Mauer. (He's only had one start where he wasn't batting 8th or 9th. He batted 7th once). Gardy has done a fine job with young players and his team has always been among the youngest in the league. In fact, since he became our manager, we've had the youngest lineup 3 times, 2nd youngest 3 times, 3rd youngest 3 times and only one season where they weren't among the 5 youngest lineups in baseball. He's gotten the best out of a lot of young guys. The list of guys who have been better after they left Gardy is incredibly short. (cue paranoid Machiavellian Gardy theories now). The 5 teams that the Twins have lost to in the 1st round have averaged 101 wins/season but let's act like the 86 win Twins team should've beaten those Yankees.

Careful, gunnarthur. There are a few indisputable facts involved in your comments. Not sure that's allowed. Unless they shed Gardy and Ryan in a poor light.

Hopefully this is true. Nothing like killing 2 birds with 1 stone. We need new blood in this organization. The old Twins way needs to be put out of it's misery.

Every team needs to just have a clean break and start over. 2015 with the right direction could be the time for the Twins to take back the AL Central for many years to come.

Originally Posted by jokin

Are you really as obtuse as oldnurse? Really?

Classy comment.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

Careful, gunnarthur. There are a few indisputable facts involved in your comments. Not sure that's allowed. Unless they shed Gardy and Ryan in a poor light.

I missed the part that was positive about Ryan.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Wouldn't happen. Ryan is way to indecisive. If the Twins somehow have a record like that, Ryan will imply that the Twins will be buyers at the deadline but in fact will do nothing because asking prices will be too high. By the time the trade deadline passes and it is clear the team is out of it, he will have sat on his hands too long and will have moved no vets for prospects.

I'm not so sure. Smith was clearly indecisive in 11. Cuddy might have gotten a nice haul back. So might have Kubel. But Ryan did move Castillo in 07 when the Twins were 54-51 and 7 GB. Didn't go over well with players or fans.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

Careful, gunnarthur. There are very few indisputable facts involved in your comments. Not sure that's allowed. Unless they shed Gardy and Ryan in a poor light.

Fixed it for you, but you're right, gun needs to be more careful in his forgetfully omission-filled apologistic rants.

Look, we shouldn't credit Terry Ryan or Ron Gardenhire for winning seasons, but we should hold them accountable for losing seasons and the paltry playoff record. It is obtuse to try to put both the winning and losing into context, because it might work against the board's metanarrative that the Twins don't know what they are doing (and never have).

Optimism is blind; pessimism is clear-eyed.

Or, we could be realistic. I'm pretty sure most of the folks on this board would like nothing more than a Twins team and FO that inspired optimism and confidence, but unfortunately that isn't the position we find ourselves in today. TR and Gardy have done plenty of good over the course of their tenures with the Twins, but at this point it just feels like we're smashing our faces into the same wall and hoping for different results. Clearly our approach to pitching hasn't been working, yet here we are doing the exact same dumpster diving and making excuses for why pitchers wont come here, even though we aren't making any competitive offers. Clearly our MI has been terrible, yet here we are watching them trot out the exact same type (is "bad" a type?) of players year after year.

I can't say I speak for all the pessimists here, but I assume most of us have things we're happy with. The offseason trades for May, Meyer and Worley? I'm happy with all of those, but that is no excuse for our FA moves (and the lack thereof).

I can't handle it. Too many frustrations in this thread.

Butera has never batted 2nd. He's had 11 plate appearances in his career batting 3rd and all of them came after he relieved Mauer. (He's only had one start where he wasn't batting 8th or 9th. He batted 7th once).

Lol you took the most facetious part of my post and argued against it. Good times.

Gardy has done a fine job with young players and his team has always been among the youngest in the league

Really!!!??? All the young players like Cuddyer, Kubel, Bartlett, Lohse, Parmelee, could throw in Delmon and Garza for the heck of it. He has a terrible rap with young players. He hasn't been as bad lately, but the Twins have also sucked so he hasn't had the chance to be a dick.

He's gotten the best out of a lot of young guys. The list of guys who have been better after they left Gardy is incredibly short.

First of all, the Twins haven't lost much talent since Gardy took over. Guys that fit your bill: J.J. Hardy, Pierzynski (was pretty good when he left), Bartlett, Garza, Lohse, we could be adding Kubel soon too, luckily they have Perkins or he would be on the list... That isn't incredibly short.

People throw Drew Butera in their like he is an everday player, when the truth is he batted a little over 100 times last year

OK, the year the Twins sign a legit back-up catcher and Butera still finds a way to get 111 AB's. The year before he got 234 AB's and 142 AB's in a year the Twins won 94 games (2-8 the last 10) and got swept in the playoffs.

But actual, low, payrolls winning in the AL? Doesn't really happen.

The Texas Rangers had a 92m payroll in 2011 and went to the WS. The Twins that year was 112m... in 2010 when the Rangers made the series they had a payroll of 55m, the Twins had 97m. Tampa Bay in 2008 had a 43m payroll. Detroit Tigers had a 82m payroll in 2006 and went to the WS. 2005 Chicago White Sox 75m. Is that enough yet to change your mind? I can keep going with examples if you'd like.

sweeping generational claims about a system that has recently changed

Ohhhh. So what has changed? The people making the decisions? The organizational philosophies? Pretty sure JR said in a quote that they will continue to do what they have always done. Nothing will change until there is new blood making decisions and changes.

The T-wolves firing of Flip and the Gopher's firing of Mason shows that change for the sake of doing something is no way to run a business.
It can often backfire. Also I enjoy Gardy. In my opinion he is the manager for as long he wants.

But I do think the game has passed Ryan by. I think the money in the game is just too much for his sensibilitties and he is sticking to his internal measuring stick on what a guy should be worth. In my dream scenario it would be Bill Smith who signs Free Agents and negotiates pay. That guy knew how to spend the Pohlad's money.

But the FO would never let him trade again.
Ever.