Source: Twins have 1 yr offer to Saunders; never made offer to Marcum

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Originally Posted by jokin

I think the debate on TD hasn't gone on longer than the sum total of about 3 minutes regarding the lack of signing the high end FA by the Twins. Only the rubest of rubes holds out some silly wanderlustic notion about a Greinke, Sanchez or Pujols signing in Minnesota. Do you consider the likes of Jackson, Blanton or Marcum, Myers, McCarthy "high end"? These are tier 2/3 guys, slightly above mediocre to good, and all better than anything the Twins envision in their rotation. What the heck, Francis and Lannan for peanuts would have been a huge depth upgrade at the back end of the rotation.

.You're conflating "marginal" talent with "serviceable" talent.

You talk about "marginal talent available", the Twins pitching staff depth chart has "marginal" written in the margins, and everywhere else on the roster page.

The Twins only have 4 returning pitchers from 2012 (Diamond, Duensing, Burton and Perkins) who were more than a sneezful above replacement level. With the exception of Hendriks, their bottom 7-in-terms-of-WAR pitchers (Blackburn, Swarzak, Deduno, Walters, Burnett and DeVries) could all come down with a case of career-ending River Blindness tomorrow and it would have no significant negative effect on the team's prospects, that's why they are termed (at, or below) "replacement level".


Remember, the Twins entire bullpen net WAR value for 2012 was only 2.5. The likes of a guy who couldn't even get a contract in the States like Padilla, could be the key to vaulting the 3rd worst bullpen in 2012, as rated by xFIP, into nearly the top quintile bullpen group in all of baseball (behind only 6 teams @ 6.0 WAR , for only $10M invested (net cost, $6-$7M). You don't even necessarily have to find another Burton, just 4 guys who would average out for you the 0.5 WAR score/man like Padilla rated in 2012.

Flippable assets created from a new-found position of strength? I think so.

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Baltimore Orioles bullpen for example had a WAR somewher around 6. Are you really thinking in terms of WAR that 3.5 games is going to make a turnaround in a team? Some of the starters you mentioned did not even start last year for their teams. Do you really think that a Lannanor a Francis is going to make a differenceon the Twins? More # 5 starters? Do you even know what the teams need if that is what you want.
There are plenty on this board who think that Jackson, Marcum and McCarthy are all in the very good catefory. Very good doesn't necessarily want to pitch in a losing environment.
Doublecheck your trade ideas on flippable assests. What do you get in trade for your 1 WAR players.

Without a contract offer ensures said FA will not play here.

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Originally Posted by The Wise One

Baltimore Orioles bullpen for example had a WAR somewher around 6. Are you really thinking in terms of WAR that 3.5 games is going to make a turnaround in a team? Some of the starters you mentioned did not even start last year for their teams. Do you really think that a Lannanor a Francis is going to make a differenceon the Twins? More # 5 starters? Do you even know what the teams need if that is what you want.
There are plenty on this board who think that Jackson, Marcum and McCarthy are all in the very good catefory. Very good doesn't necessarily want to pitch in a losing environment.
Doublecheck your trade ideas on flippable assests. What do you get in trade for your 1 WAR players.

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On flippable assets, you're not really getting this. You build depth from below, in that you then create expendable tradeable & coveted assets- these theoretically become Perkins and Burton- if they continue their progression. Hopefully, they can be traded for prospects at positions of weakness as the position players come off the books and the draft picks move up to take the place of your tradeable assets from a now-developing position of strength. The WAR question in your first paragraph is key, it's not so much a goal as "turning a season around" all by itself. Create areas of strength and depth in as efficient a manner as possible, thus developing incremental improvements in each aspect of the team. Making a proposed turnaround in the bullpen in the proportions close to what I outlined is certain to make the 1000s of players and agents around the various levels of baseball sit up and take notice, particularly the bounty of potential FA starters this offseason, for example, in making the Twins recognized as a team serious about developing a consistent winner.

Range of opinion on the SPs I proffered? Their numbers and projections suggest how mediocre to very good they are, opinions may vary, sure. Jackson went to the Cubs, Marcum to the Mets, McCarthy to the D-Backs. Sorry... but Winning/Losing wasn't the make or break factor on ANY these deals. Nuff said here.

On the proposed SP pick-ups, even those such as the lowly #4-5 projections like Lannan and Francis, they sadly all represent potential upgrades, to at least some, if not most, on this lowly Twins pitching depth chart, and they were available for spit, and represented potential value when compared to Correia or Saunders. Again, incremental improvement-seeking, building the franchise back up one brick at a time, finding the next Burton, Dickey, Diamond along the way is all part of that dynamic process.

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Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

For me, it's not about a single free agent. I would have been happy with anything from Greinke to Marcum. There were about ten decent options that ranged from very good (Greinke) to good (Sanchez) to mediocre (Jackson) to question marks with upside (Marcum).

The problem is that Ryan didn't get any of them. With more pitching options on the market than I've seen since the mid-2000s, Ryan failed to get even a mediocre pitcher and instead relied entirely on gambles such as Correia (well below average once you factor in league disparity) and Harden (whose arm could fall off the next time he opens a car door a little too vigorously). No matter how you look at the situation, it's a fail.

Which is really too bad. The Twins had a lot of money to spend and Ryan did an exemplary job with the Span and Revere trades. If he could have just done an "okay" job with the free agent market, I'd be pleased as punch going into this season. Instead, I want to scream.

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I agree with you... Marcum was the bottom of the upper rung in my assessment... And the last one available... I wanted one of those guys and getting one of those guys was my personal litmus test for the off season. I'm bummed... But... It was my assessment and my plan. TR isn't following my plan and I won't throw rocks at him because he isn't.

Cdog... North... Glunn... Chief... Jokin... Puck... Shane... Hammer... Nurse and Charger would all have different plans than I... And different plans from each other.

For reasons past our understanding... This is TR's plan and come what May.

So, your point is that this is TR's plan? Well, yes, thank you for that. No one is saying otherwise.

His plan is still subject to criticism and evaluation by fans. Comes with the job. So back to the discussion then?

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

Why would Correia think that? Last year, the Twins DFA'd Jason Marquis after 7 starts to make room for Cole DeVries.

The Twins made an offer to Correia that was competitive. That's why Correia, Pelfrey, and Harden are here, and not Marcum or anyone else.



Look at the no-trade clauses of the guys traded this winter. Upton had on his Seattle, Toronto, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. Asdrubal had on his, the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Nats, and Mets.

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.



No, but it doesn't take a genius to recognize patterns. 2013 looks an awful lot like 2012. So either Jr expects better results this time, or the timeline for his plan is so stretched out that he's willing to punt 2 or more seasons before it kicks in. That's not acceptable, not when there's $20m or more still on the table.

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i don't know what Correia was thinking... But most don't think they are going to pitch like Marquis did for us but yes I agree... The Twins made a competitive offer and that is why they are here. I would never argue against that.

I also agree with you that simply saying Free Agents don't want to come here is way to simple a statement. Like I said... It's not Black and White... It's Grey... If the Twins seriously wanted someone... They could have got serious and landed someone. I simply don't know how serious they were and that I file under Terry Ryan's plan. I'm just saying that whatever the plan is... I'm pretty sure it's not to remain in last place forever. The goal has to be to get better at some point.

Does TR think this year is the year or is the timeline pushed down the road. I don't know... Seems to me that the timeline is down the road... I think we can all see that. Well most of us... At least.

Terry Ryan is quoted as saying that he won't call this a rebuilding year because its an excuse to lose. Some interpret that as an example of lying. I call it an example of what you are supposed to say in a rebuilding year. You don't send a "we are going to lose" message to a ball club or fan base even if the odds are long.

I'm not going to throw rocks. I'm gonna watch as many games as I can... Just like I do every year. My rocks will be hurled at the White Sox like every year.m

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

So, your point is that this is TR's plan? Well, yes, thank you for that. No one is saying otherwise. That was three incredibly content-free paragraphs stating nothing but the obvious.

His plan is still subject to criticism and evaluation by fans. Comes with the job. So back to the discussion then?

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I'm asking nicely... Please put me on ignore.

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I'm asking nicely... Please put me on ignore.

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Why? And miss out on being informed that...*gasp* Terry Ryan is the one with the plan for this offseason?

Where else will I get such amazing content if I'm not reading your posts? My "trying to find the point in a sea of irrelevance in a post" skills would really start to fade if I did that!

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

For reasons past our understanding... This is TR's plan and come what May.

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I beg to disagree. My biggest issue (maybe) with TR is that he does not have a consistent plan, but he does half rear end reactionary moves to say that he did something: He trades his 2 CFs for a 25 and two 23 year old (in 2013) pitchers with upside (excellent), so the Twins can compete in 2014-15ish, but keeps his aging first baseman and left fielder, extends his aging DH/C, signs Blackburn's reincarnation (Correia) to a 2 year deal overpaying, and signs a couple of SPs close to 30 with lots of health questions.

If this were a plan, it is made by a schizophrenic individual.

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Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Why? And miss out on being informed that...*gasp* Terry Ryan is the one with the plan for this offseason?

Where else will I get such amazing content if I'm not reading your posts? My "trying to find the point in a sea of irrelevance in a post" skills would really start to fade if I did that!

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This is my third request... Please put me on ignore.

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Terry Ryan is quoted as saying that he won't call this a rebuilding year because its an excuse to lose. Some interpret that as an example of lying. I call it an example of what you are supposed to say in a rebuilding year. You don't send a "we are going to lose" message to a ball club or fan base even if the odds are long.

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I will lap up the Twins koolaid again too. Heck I am already on the hook for about 4 or 5 gallons of it.

The only thing that gets me is, when he makes promises like this with one eye closed. Obviously its possible the Twins could win the World Series this year, if they play a perfect season, everything breaks right, and maybe JV goes down with TJ. And so technically, on the dotted line, you could justify this as not a rebuild year (again), just like you could every year.

But as far as a plan goes, there's obviously not one for 2013. The best I can figure, at this point, is that the hope is one or two of the guys inked for 2013 play good enough to reject a qualifying offer next October, and the TWins come out with comp picks. Keep kicking that rock down the road, as per vintage Jr.

That was not supposed to be how the Twins did things in the post-TF era.

Players rejected offers from the Nationals for several years....... and they were often better than the ones they took. Of course it is happening to the Twins now.

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Originally Posted by thrylos98

I beg to disagree. My biggest issue (maybe) with TR is that he does not have a consistent plan, but he does half rear end reactionary moves to say that he did something: He trades his 2 CFs for a 25 and two 23 year old (in 2013) pitchers with upside (excellent), so the Twins can compete in 2014-15ish, but keeps his aging first baseman and left fielder, extends his aging DH/C, signs Blackburn's reincarnation (Correia) to a 2 year deal overpaying, and signs a couple of SPs close to 30 with lots of health questions.

If this were a plan, it is made by a schizophrenic individual.

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I'll admit its my biggest fear... Kind of like limbo land... Not fully rebuilding and not fully building. I understand where everyone is coming from.

All plans are subject to change so there would have to be some on the fly decisions but personally... I don't know why we couldn't have landed a closer to the top tier pitcher. I just refuse to believe that TR is out of his mind. There has to be a reason and I don't think any of us know.

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

That was not supposed to be how the Twins did things in the post-TF era.

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Brace yourself for a post detailing you in 6 paragraphs (with lots of ....) that TF is located in Minneapolis!

Smith showed us that a lot can happen with this team with an aggressive GM at the helm. His aggression ended up hurting the team in many ways, but it was also a boon for the team in many ways. Smith was aggressive, Ryan is generally more patient. JR has openly stated that he isn't a fan of long contracts to pitchers. All these conspiracy theories and excuses ignore the fact that Ryan has long since stated his intentions in FA. It's to be cautious and invest in no-risk, no-upside players typically with one trait: reliability. In trades he is far more aggressive and has been in the past.

So basically, we got classic Terry Ryan. Nothing more.

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Originally Posted by thrylos98

I beg to disagree. My biggest issue (maybe) with TR is that he does not have a consistent plan, but he does half rear end reactionary moves to say that he did something: He trades his 2 CFs for a 25 and two 23 year old (in 2013) pitchers with upside (excellent), so the Twins can compete in 2014-15ish, but keeps his aging first baseman and left fielder, extends his aging DH/C, signs Blackburn's reincarnation (Correia) to a 2 year deal overpaying, and signs a couple of SPs close to 30 with lots of health questions.

If this were a plan, it is made by a schizophrenic individual.

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The only reactionary move I saw was the Corriera contract, and he might have been on the target list all along (seems like he's a Twins-type pitcher). The trades of CFs for more pitching is indicative of a two-part plan--rebuild for the near future, but make some cosmetic improvements for 2013. You may argue that the trade of two MLers for one plus prospects is a degredation. But, I consider Revere to be replaceable from within as well as not part of the longer-term plan (or what I perceive Ryan's plan to be). No, I don't think Ryan has done enough, even within the team-imposed salary reduction (budget cut being part of the plan IMO).

Trading Morneau? I wouldn't be surprised to find that was attempted, but Ryan was "displeased" with the results. There is also the part of the plan (IMO) of competitiveness in 2013. Clearly this roster is disappointing but to trade Morneau (a fan favorite) and not return results acceptable to the fan base would be a PR nightmare. I also believe the FO thinks they can make an acceptable trade of Morneau in mid-season. I don't think they can, but I wish them well.
Blackburn's reincarnation? Disagreeable to be sure, but they are committed to pay him $5.5MM so I'm not surprised that they would give another shot to Blackburn. My take on the TD poster response to Corriera is that Blackburn might (before surgery issue) provide similar results, so try it. Blackburn would most likely have failed IMO. The signing of the "health questionable"?--consistent with the plan to significantly reduce budget yet make cosmetic improvement on 2012. I don't think any of them will make as much of a contribution on the field as they do now as a PR device.

To sum up, yes I do believe Ryan has a plan, but I disagree with the salary reduction/diminished expectations part, and I believe he could have done better than he did, even using the team-imposed constraints.

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

I will lap up the Twins koolaid again too. Heck I am already on the hook for about 4 or 5 gallons of it.

The only thing that gets me is, when he makes promises like this with one eye closed. Obviously its possible the Twins could win the World Series this year, if they play a perfect season, everything breaks right, and maybe JV goes down with TJ. And so technically, on the dotted line, you could justify this as not a rebuild year (again), just like you could every year.

But as far as a plan goes, there's obviously not one for 2013. The best I can figure, at this point, is that the hope is one or two of the guys inked for 2013 play good enough to reject a qualifying offer next October, and the TWins come out with comp picks. Keep kicking that rock down the road, as per vintage Jr.

That was not supposed to be how the Twins did things in the post-TF era.

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I'm a Kool Aid guy obviously... This batch doesn't have enough sugar in it but down the hatch.

My hope will be simple. Keep the 6 plus ERA guys off the mound. If anyone is throwing 6 plus... replace him with the next option. If they can do that. This team will be much better and more importantly... We can find out about the rest of the team... Because they will be in ball games... If they are in ball games... We can better assess what they have to offer and what we have for 2014. This could be TR's plan. Or not.

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Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

We also got Pelfrey, Worley, May, Meyer, Harden.... Not all will help immediately but the Twins did bring in pitching depth currently, and some real talent for the future.

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So we applaud 3 m.a.s.h.victums a future reliever and a single A player?

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Originally Posted by snepp

Ryan's comments concerning Correia have at least hinted to a bit of buyer's remorse. Whether that perceived remorse means anything moving forward or not, well, I doubt anything actually changes.

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Personally i think Terry is setting it up to blame the scouts if Correia fails and to take credit for him if he is mediocre.

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I agree with you... Marcum was the bottom of the upper rung in my assessment... And the last one available... I wanted one of those guys and getting one of those guys was my personal litmus test for the off season. I'm bummed... But... It was my assessment and my plan. TR isn't following my plan and I won't throw rocks at him because he isn't.

Cdog... North... Glunn... Chief... Jokin... Puck... Shane... Hammer... Nurse and Charger would all have different plans than I... And different plans from each other.

For reasons past our understanding... This is TR's plan and come what May.

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yup he got May

RB, I'm a TR fan, I think he's a shrewd baseball man and has a firm grasp of his plan regarding the big picture. But I think it's fair at this point to lay some criticism at his feet in the way he has handled this off-season as it relates to 2013.

One of two things are evident, the plan he strongly indicated he was going to implement early on, was never really a plan and he was in full spin mode or he actually thinks he fulfilled that plan and is satisfied with the results. Either way, it's unacceptable as it relates to payroll, the players he's acquired and the message he's trying to send the fans.