Thread: Source: Twins have 1 yr offer to Saunders; never made offer to Marcum

Originally Posted by jokin

Last 3 years, the SP ML xFIP is 4.04. Saunders 3-year xFIP is 4.38. Correia's 3-year xFIP is actually a better shade of below-average mediocrity, 4.26. I know you're not saying this, but let's not hold much pretense that Saunders would come in and be the key catalyst in a dramatic Twins turnaround. Although it's a lot like getting a date with Miss Hospitality, it is significantly better having Saunders' innings out there than the alternative. Again, sadly, the biggest benefit to this proposed deal is the one-year nature of it.

In each of the past 5 years Saunders has outperformed his xFIP and FIP by a significant margin, yes xFIP and FIP are useful tools, but they aren't an end all be all, 5 years in a row isn't luck, its a trend. So I am not very worried about the fact that Saunders doesn't strike a lot of guys out or that his HR% isn't the best.

In the title of this thread is a claim that the Twins never made an offer to Marcum, and unless people start disputing said claim then we must conclude that "Ryan didn't want Marcum". My take on the discussion was the "why not?" The disclosed terms don't appear to be outside the acceptable parameters to the Twins. Marcum's statistics appear to be better than others who were signed--so why not? It would be way too glib to dismiss Marcum as "damaged goods" when the Twins have made offers to, and even signed, pitchers who fall into the "damaged goods" category. We can also reasonably conclude that the Twins didn't (and are aware of it) solve all of their pitching problems, so there must be another factor(s) that caused the Twins to "pass" on Marcum (yet sign Correria, Pelfrey, and the others).

Originally Posted by SDTwinsFan

What is really sad is that when I saw this post, I thought: "Saunders might be a Twin??? That's great!" And 2 months ago, the thought of Saunders being a Twin would have made me sick.... At least the FO is good at lowering our expectations.

And many of our fans are more than happy with it:

Originally Posted by JimH;} ...." I just hope Ryan managed to get a "bargain" or 2......" [URL="http://twinsdaily.com/members/riverbrian.html"

Riverbrian[/URL], PseudoSABR and 70charger like this

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I'm guessing that Kevin Corriea was probably not happy with getting knocked out of the rotation in Pittsburgh. He was looking for a team where he could stick in the rotation because that would be best for his career. I think he labeled Minnesota has the best place for that. I think Pelfrey labeled Minnesota has a good match because he would have an opportunity to pitch and revive his career. Harden same thing. These are just guesses but they make sense to me at least.

Why would Correia think that? Last year, the Twins DFA'd Jason Marquis after 7 starts to make room for Cole DeVries.

The Twins made an offer to Correia that was competitive. That's why Correia, Pelfrey, and Harden are here, and not Marcum or anyone else.

Each Free Agent is going to sign with a team that wants them and the team that makes sense for them.

Look at the no-trade clauses of the guys traded this winter. Upton had on his Seattle, Toronto, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. Asdrubal had on his, the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Nats, and Mets.

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.

Even the Astros have a plan... I'm sure the Twins do as well. I don't know what the plan is and I don't think Mackey knows either and I don't think a single poster on Twinsdaily knows either.

No, but it doesn't take a genius to recognize patterns. 2013 looks an awful lot like 2012. So either Jr expects better results this time, or the timeline for his plan is so stretched out that he's willing to punt 2 or more seasons before it kicks in. That's not acceptable, not when there's $20m or more still on the table.

Willihammer with the hammer straight on the head of the nail above. Well done.

The only question remaining for me is: how much whiskey do I need to drink to forget this whole situation?

Originally Posted by SpiritofVodkaDave

In each of the past 5 years Saunders has outperformed his xFIP and FIP by a significant margin, yes xFIP and FIP are useful tools, but they aren't an end all be all, 5 years in a row isn't luck, its a trend. So I am not very worried about the fact that Saunders doesn't strike a lot of guys out or that his HR% isn't the best.

I'm not sure the "trend is your friend". If you would have said he'd done what you said he did in 2 out of the last 7 years, I might have been persuaded:


YEAR ERA xFIP
2006 4.71 4.37
2007 4.44 4.39
2008 3.41 4.59
2009 4.60 4.74
2010 4.47 4.50
2011 3.69 4.38
2012 4.07 4.25

His ERA over the last 3 years is 4.07, not really a big premium over his 4.38 xFIP, even with the big year of 2011 averaged in.


Given the current state of the Twins Swiss Cheese defense, a veritable Pitch to Contact Zenmaster like Saunders should be the last pitcher the Twins should covet on a likely overbid necessary to obtain him.

And I know you mentioned his HR% at least as a concern, but don't try to gloss over the fact that RH batters will be licking their chops as they look to become very familiar with the the Left Field stands at TF plus with a chance to increase on their already lofty .804 career OPS against him. (In effect, every RHB averages out close to the equivalent of a Bryce Harper). Besides his high Gopher ball rate against righties, his career FIP against them is 4.95.

I am resigned to attempting to sign him, but not for the numbers bandied about on TD, and not long-term.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Look at the no-trade clauses of the guys traded this winter. Upton had on his Seattle, Toronto, Boston and the Chicago Cubs. Asdrubal had on his, the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Giants, Nats, and Mets.

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.



.

Sometimes, you forget that you know what you know.

Thanks Willihammer for remembering the most cogent point yet in shutting down this ridiculous argument foisted upon us by Ryan and dutifully perpetuated ad nauseum on TD.

Those guys aren't good examples. You can only use Guys that have Minnesota on their list in this discussion to prove your point.

So we'll jump at the chance to sign Correia for two years, but with Saunders we're going to draw a line in the sand at one.

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

So we'll jump at the chance to sign Correia for two years, but with Saunders we're going to draw a line in the sand at one.

I think they realize that they screwed the pooch with Correia and aren't looking to conduct a repeat performance.

Originally Posted by snepp

I think they realize that they screwed the pooch with Correia and aren't looking to conduct a repeat performance.

Would that be addition by inaction?

That could be the best move since trading for Meyer.

Hmm, let's see, what's worse signing a marginal FA pitcher from the NL to a 1-year contract or nothing? What would happen to the "saved" $5MM or so?--do we fans recieve any benefit? Like maybe a $1 off a ticket if we sit in the designated b--tching section, or maybe a bag of peanuts to remind us of who we are and where we are sitting?

Originally Posted by snepp

I think they realize that they screwed the pooch with Correia and aren't looking to conduct a repeat performance.

I'd feel somewhat better if I really thought they realize they screwed the pooch with Correia. But I don't, so I don't.

Originally Posted by Kwak

Hmm, let's see, what's worse signing a marginal FA pitcher from the NL to a 1-year contract or nothing? What would happen to the "saved" $5MM or so?--do we fans recieve any benefit? Like maybe a $1 off a ticket if we sit in the designated b--tching section, or maybe a bag of peanuts to remind us of who we are and where we are sitting?

If you renew your season ticket package, you get 10% off your spending on CONcessions or on Twins Stuff. Your Kevin Coreria jrsey will be cheaper than any Twins jersey your purchased on-site last year. Hey, any Liriano jerseys left at Twinsfest, or were they apckaged as twofers with Valencia or Baker jerseys.

Originally Posted by Rosterman

If you renew your season ticket package, you get 10% off your spending on CONcessions or on Twins Stuff. Your Kevin Coreria jrsey will be cheaper than any Twins jersey your purchased on-site last year. Hey, any Liriano jerseys left at Twinsfest, or were they apckaged as twofers with Valencia or Baker jerseys.

The best part of a season ticket package is the telephone conferences with Terry Ryan. Always insightful.

Originally Posted by USAFChief

I'd feel somewhat better if I really thought they realize they screwed the pooch with Correia. But I don't, so I don't.

Ryan's comments concerning Correia have at least hinted to a bit of buyer's remorse. Whether that perceived remorse means anything moving forward or not, well, I doubt anything actually changes.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

It is possible any given FA doesn't want to play in MN. Its highly unlikely that an entire crop of FAs doesn't want to play in MN.



No, but it doesn't take a genius to recognize patterns. 2013 looks an awful lot like 2012. So either Jr expects better results this time, or the timeline for his plan is so stretched out that he's willing to punt 2 or more seasons before it kicks in. That's not acceptable, not when there's $20m or more still on the table.

While it is indeed unlikely that all free agents don't want to sign here it is reasonable to think that the high end free agents wouldn't want to play here. Why would you want to go to a losing team if given a choice. If they are any good as a player they have already earned a ton of money. Unless they have the spending habits of Bryant McKinney they don't have to sign for the most money. The marginal talent available to sign leads me to think who cares? They could sign a dozen players the caliber of a Padilla.

Originally Posted by The Wise One

While it is indeed unlikely that all free agents don't want to sign here it is reasonable to think that the high end free agents wouldn't want to play here. .

I think the debate on TD hasn't gone on longer than the sum total of about 3 minutes regarding the lack of signing the high end FA by the Twins. Only the rubest of rubes holds out some silly wanderlustic notion about a Greinke, Sanchez or Pujols signing in Minnesota. Do you consider the likes of Jackson, Blanton or Marcum, Myers, McCarthy "high end"? These are tier 2/3 guys, slightly above mediocre to good, and all better than anything the Twins envision in their rotation. What the heck, Francis and Lannan for peanuts would have been a huge depth upgrade at the back end of the rotation.

.You're conflating "marginal" talent with "serviceable" talent.

You talk about "marginal talent available", the Twins pitching staff depth chart has "marginal" written in the margins, and everywhere else on the roster page.

The Twins only have 4 returning pitchers from 2012 (Diamond, Duensing, Burton and Perkins) who were more than a sneezful above replacement level. With the exception of Hendriks, their bottom 7-in-terms-of-WAR pitchers (Blackburn, Swarzak, Deduno, Walters, Burnett and DeVries) could all come down with a case of career-ending River Blindness tomorrow and it would have no significant negative effect on the team's prospects, that's why they are termed (at, or below) "replacement level".

Spot on, on Padilla, you could sign 4 mythical, but desciptively "marginal", but still "serviceable", Padilla-like RP's who had a 0.5 WAR in 2012, for less than $10M total, dump the whole bullpen except Duensing, Fien, Burton and Perkins and your WAR goes up by 2.0 versus the -1.2 for the guys you dumped--------

Remember, the Twins entire bullpen net WAR value for 2012 was only 2.5. The likes of a guy who couldn't even get a contract in the States like Padilla, could be the key to vaulting the 3rd worst bullpen in 2012, as rated by xFIP, into nearly the top quintile bullpen group in all of baseball (behind only 6 teams @ 6.0 WAR , for only $10M invested (net cost, $6-$7M). You don't even necessarily have to find another Burton, just 4 guys who would average out for you the 0.5 WAR score/man like Padilla rated in 2012.

You would get 200 innings (+ additional 2013 innings factored in throughout the pen) with an xFIP of 3.69 from Padilla versus the 278 innings of ~5.00+ xFIP dreck from Gray and the gang in 2012. A huge upgrade for little marginal increased cost of say $6-$7M.

Money well spent? Flippable assets created from a new-found position of strength? I think so.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

The Twins made an offer to Correia that was competitive. That's why Correia, Pelfrey, and Harden are here, and not Marcum or anyone else.

Mike Pelfrey said yesterday at ESPN 1500's booth at Twins Fest that his wife has family and friends here. That was an inducement for him. The money was probably also a factor.

Not every FA wants to avoid Minnesota; just like not all want to avoid Texas or Seattle, or New York.

Then there's guys like Joe Mauer, whom I believe wants to stay in Minnesota for the rest of his career.

Sometimes it's the location. Sometimes it's the people involved. Sometimes it's the organization or the organization's recent record.. Too often it's the money. All of these are considerations for FA – some to one degree or another.

Ultimately, it's up to the FA. Of course, there are some areas which are more populated – like LA, New York, Chicago, etc. There are simply more people, so more chance that someone will want to play there.

Lots of factors. To say no major FA wants to play here is a crude overstatement. But no FA wants to be underpaid.

Originally Posted by lee_the_twins_fan

To say no major FA wants to play here is a crude overstatement. But no FA wants to be underpaid.

Exactly. And so long as our GM prefers to stay in the camp of the second sentence I quoted, we'll have trouble enticing FAs. All those other factors are irrelevant when you aren't willing to be competitive with your offers.