Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

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Originally Posted by COtwin

What worries me is that TR was so defensive about all of this and the evidence that he produced to support the signing. How many times did he refer to someone telling somebody else something about "the pitcher formerly known as >"? We have always known that the Twins are a "good ole boys" group. We have watched some deserving/capable players get no chance or dumped for years, because they didn't click with Gardy or whoever. Now we are spending legit money on guys that have almost no chance of being a positive addition to the rotation. I kinda want to keep going about why ">" has no chance but really I wanted to say that we need to remind TR of his words next year when this all implodes in Early May

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You keep on going on like this and you're liable to make yourself persona non grata amongst those in "the mythical apologists fan club'

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Originally Posted by jokin

And I can give you at least a dozen who match or exceed Correia's FB speed with much better stats. But we still have an ongoing love-fest in Saunders (4.38xFIP), who has a lower 3-year xFIP than Correia (4.26xFIP).

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You can give me a dozen starting pitchers on the free agent market who had better peripherals, but your original claim was on speed only. On speed only Correia is average. More than likely the problem isn't when he throws a good fastball. It is when the fastball, or any other pitch for that matter, is less than perfect is the problem.

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

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You are treading on dangerous ground, TR has assessed and addressed this "non-issue"./sarc

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Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

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I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.

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Originally Posted by old nurse

You can give me a dozen starting pitchers on the free agent market who had better peripherals, but your original claim was on speed only. On speed only Correia is average. More than likely the problem isn't when he throws a good fastball. It is when the fastball, or any other pitch for that matter, is less than perfect is the problem.

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Uhh, no it wasn't, and I know you know that.

And Correia seems to have "less than perfect" as a rather frequent problem down pat.

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Originally Posted by jokin

I asked YOU to determine why they are doing what they're doing at the Major League level, you posited the original speculative surmise on "graduation".

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How the heck can I do that? I hoped that the philosophy that drafted Berrios and the high-velocity relievers last year and acquired Meyer and Mays would graduate to major league transactions. I wasn't speculating or surmising; I was thinking wishfully.

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Originally Posted by jokin

Uhh, no it wasn't, and I know you know that.

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ever feel like you're in a court of law, or having to write up a legal document?

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.

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That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms.

While it might not be new, it's a welcome resurrection then, and I hope it results in a tangible change in philosophical approach, because frankly there's a large gap between the 2005 arms and now.

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Originally Posted by ThePuck

He went past the 6th inning 3 times last year. 3 times out of 28 starts

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12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

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Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms.

While it might not be new, it's a welcome resurrection then, and I hope it results in a tangible change in philosophical approach, because frankly their a large gap between the 2005 arms and now.

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Ryan even came out and said that people have been clamoring for years to draft power arms, so he finally did it this year. When he said it int eh interview, it almost seemed like he said it with disgust

I get it now, TR has envisioned KC to close games. No track record there or stats in that role, and contact that fits the role.

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Originally Posted by josecordoba

I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

Teams are getting more aware/advanced with stats all the time. Even the Stats that Smart Baseball Fans tend to reference such as xFIP tend to pale in comparsion to the resources for a major league team. Scouting will be able to create more of a Market Inefficiency overtime. I'll hold out to the possibility there are things about Kevin Correria I can't grasp looking at stats. Could there be bad luck where he hits his spots? I can't say for certain.

I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

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The Minnesota Twins llc. put a bid in on a player from Japan , without ever seeing him play , but from watching some tapes...
and that is not reckless thought process?

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Originally Posted by lightfoot789

12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

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HE earned those wins? HE did? Who was responsible for scoring the 4 or more runs in 9 of his 12 wins? Or heck, any runs?

The offense scores...the defense plays behind him... Wins is a team thing

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

The "he's a little bit better than a fifth starter" line is so sad it's almost funny.

Especially considering Correia wasn't even in the Pirates' top 5.

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Im guessing Terry ment , Kevin Correia is a little bit better then last years Twins #5 pitcher....? Blackburn, marquis,Liriano Hendriks or Pavano?

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Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

How the heck can I do that? I hoped that the philosophy that drafted Berrios and the high-velocity relievers last year and acquired Meyer and Mays would graduate to major league transactions. I wasn't speculating or surmising; I was thinking wishfully.

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Ahh, I see, so another Pseudo-KC Royals-like fan- when your only reasons for optimism are full of hope and wishful thinking- I see a team in trouble for the upcoming season.

I showed that, at best, TR has a Chinese wall between his draft scouts and major league scouts. His trade for Meyer was when Ryan came out and said that it is "impossible" to acquire a high-end hard-thrower above Single A ball. He drafted hard throwers but didn't pony up for a Shields via trade or make a competitive offer on a decent FA SP. This directly implied that he would NEVER pay up on the FA market for the ML equivalent despite the gaping available salary space and had a definite problem pulling the trigger on a proven #1-2 starter via trade from the Twins positions of strength. (Was Span and a Top Ten prospect doable for Shields, or not? Shields days are numbered in Tampa.) See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge.

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Originally Posted by old nurse

Everybody but lightfoot seems to know that. Puck got what I meant.

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Twins management must get what I'm saying. They signed him. The rest will be wait and see for results - regardless to all of the blogging GM hats we wear. Most of the bloggers believe that all their personal moves would result in grade A moves. And if they don't believe that - then give management a chance. I believe in TR

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Originally Posted by Boom Boom

It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

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They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

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Originally Posted by jokin

I believe that phrase is the very definition of "damning with faint praise".

Being an eternal optimist, I "trust in TR" , he apparently believes he can get something close to a 2009 year out of Correia, adjusted for the AL, which would put him well above your projections. Hopefully, he is thinking he can get a great half-season out of Correia coming into a league unfamiliar with his stuff and can deal him before the deadline Unfortunately, there are 3 intervening years of mediocrity between that year and this, coupling that with the Twins defense, 200/4.75 seems to be the projection that's too optimistic.

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It is very optimistic, but I also believe that anything less will result in my having the 'everybody saw that coming' attitude towards it. Sad that my optimism regarding the matter is a probably unattainable 4.75 ERA. sigh.

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Originally Posted by Willihammer

They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

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Found it.
Frustrated Carl Pavano will not pitch again for Twins this season | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

Carl didn't sound too pleased. I'm guessing that there were other issues beyond the head trainer.

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Originally Posted by jokin

Ahh, I see, so another Pseudo-KC Royals-like fan- when you're only reasons for optimism are full of hope and wishful thinking- I see a team in trouble for the upcoming season. I showed that, at best, TR has a Chinese wall between his draft scouts and major league scouts. His trade for Meyer was when Ryan came out and said that it is "impossible" to acquire a high-end hard-thrower above Single A ball. He drafted hard throwers but didn't pony up for a Shields via trade or make a competitive offer on a decent FA SP. This directly implied that he would NEVER pay up on the FA market for the ML equivalent despite the gaping available salary space and had a definite problem pulling the trigger on a proven #1-2 starter via trade from the Twins positions of strength. (Was Span and a Top Ten prospect doable for Shields, or not? Shields days are numbered in Tampa.) See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge.

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:banghead:

Honestly, if you're going to be smug, at least attack ideas people actually have.