Thread: Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

Originally Posted by jokin

These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).

Well you're certainly no Plato, what with your allegories and caves. It's not exactly clear what your beef is.

What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

Originally Posted by jokin

These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).

Fangraphs says Correia's fastball sits on average between 90-91. Other than Jackson, velocity wise Correia's speed is about the same as some of the other options available.

Originally Posted by LimestoneBaggy

So at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

Great question.

Originally Posted by LimestoneBaggy

Wow, it's getting to a point where I really want to be wrong and have Correia make TR (JR) look like a genius (against all odds for this signing). We can't unwind the clock to get a strikeout pitcher, so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

I would hope that anyone who has a serious issue with signing Correia would be delighted to be wrong...cause that would mean the team was better off.

Originally Posted by LimestoneBaggy

so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

My napkin math says roughly 180 innings of 4.50 ERA/FIP.

What worries me is that TR was so defensive about all of this and the evidence that he produced to support the signing. How many times did he refer to someone telling somebody else something about "the pitcher formerly known as >"? We have always known that the Twins are a "good ole boys" group. We have watched some deserving/capable players get no chance or dumped for years, because they didn't click with Gardy or whoever. Now we are spending legit money on guys that have almost no chance of being a positive addition to the rotation. I kinda want to keep going about why ">" has no chance but really I wanted to say that we need to remind TR of his words next year when this all implodes in Early May

Originally Posted by snepp

My napkin math says roughly 180 innings of 4.50 ERA/FIP.

I'd be thrilled with that season from Correia. The problem is that I feel even those meager numbers are a bit of a longshot.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Fangraphs says Correia's fastball sits on average between 90-91. Other than Jackson, velocity wise Correia's speed is about the same as some of the other options available.

And Matt Capps throws 95. You can parse the words all you want but you are fully aware that when he is requesting hard throwers he is actaully asking for guys with strikeout ability.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd be thrilled with that season from Correia. The problem is that I feel even those meager numbers are a bit of a longshot.

Those aren't meager numbers to me, when you factor in the innings pitched.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

I'd be thrilled with that season from Correia. The problem is that I feel even those meager numbers are a bit of a longshot.

I'd take that season too. But considering that his career ERA/FIP is already 4.50 in the NL, with a ton of time in pitcher's parks, with only one season north of 180 innings (and just one other even approaching it), I have to agree on the longshot.

Oh yeah, and he has to do it twice.

Originally Posted by LimestoneBaggy

Wow, it's getting to a point where I really want to be wrong and have Correia make TR (JR) look like a genius (against all odds for this signing). We can't unwind the clock to get a strikeout pitcher, so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?

They paid for a guy with a career FIP as a starter somewhere around 4.4. If they paid him to be his average self, that is about the number they were looking for. (to the critics: I know it was a NL number, but to expect a number higher than that like 4.85 is to say they would be better off with Cole DeVries and I would get thrown out of the mythical apologists fan club)

If he indeed was brought in to be a veteran innings eater, I might have higher expectations put on him - hoping for something like 200 innings of 4.75 ERA. I dont think he gets to 200 and I dont think he sniffs 4.75, especially with the defense he will have behind him.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Fangraphs says Correia's fastball sits on average between 90-91. Other than Jackson, velocity wise Correia's speed is about the same as some of the other options available.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

And I can give you at least a dozen who match or exceed Correia's FB speed with much better stats. But we still have an ongoing love-fest in Saunders (4.38xFIP), who has a lower 3-year xFIP than Correia (4.26xFIP).

Pseudo, I didn't say simple incompetence, since you aren't "glib", I asked YOU to determine why they are doing what they're doing at the Major League level, you posited the original speculative surmise on "graduation".

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Because they have very little correlation with performance would be one explanation. That they have even less worth as a predictive tool is another.

Everybody but lightfoot seems to know that. Puck got what I meant.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Those aren't meager numbers to me, when you factor in the innings pitched.

Just think, if we also sign "bulldog" Saunders to a long-term deal, we can factor in more than double the innings of guys "slightly better than #5 level starters" for at least 2 more years!

Originally Posted by gmarais66

I'm not saying Corriea is going to be great, but this is where all you guys that decide everything about players, by looking at stats, are missing the boat.

OK, so right off the bat you're displaying some sort of chip on your shoulder. Don't know why.

Originally Posted by gmarais66

Pavano put up similar numbers in his first two years with the Twins. They weren't impressive, but you knew, every time out that the Twins had a shot to win when Pavano was on the mound. ... He may give up five or six runs, but he kept his team in the game and gave the Twins a chance to win. It's cliche', but he was the bend, not break type of pitcher. You won't find any of this in the stats sheets, ...Baseball isn't played on paper. It is a game of stats, but the stats don't always tell the whole story of what happens on the field.

I assume you mean Pavano's first two full seasons with the Twins? Similar, in that he started 32/33 games and pitched 221/222 innings?

They weren't that similar. The first full season, 2010, he was among the top 20 pitchers in the league - not an all star but very effective, and the second best of his career. In that season, he gave up five or more earned runs six times, and the Twins were 2-4 in those games, as he "kept them in the game" to win 7-6 and 8-5 in those two games, while in the losses the scores were more like 11-2 except for one game they lost 11-10 where giving up 7 runs in 4 innings looks kind of decisive. That second season, 2011, he was far from good, and at best he might have been in the top 50 in the league - he gave up five or more runs ten times, and the Twins were 1-9 in those games, lots of 10-3 and 9-5 and 5-2 kinds of losses where he clearly didn't keep them in the game, with one 9-8 win they managed to eke out.

See, you want to say that the stats don't bear out what you "know", that the Twins had a shot to win when he stepped onto the mound. But there are concrete records you can check, to see whether a game-to-game claim is supported either. It's not just a bunch of complicated stats standing between you and your preferred reality.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

If he indeed was brought in to be a veteran innings eater, I might have higher expectations put on him - hoping for something like 200 innings of 4.75 ERA. I dont think he gets to 200 and I dont think he sniffs 4.75, especially with the defense he will have behind him.

I believe that phrase is the very definition of "damning with faint praise".

Being an eternal optimist, I "trust in TR" , he apparently believes he can get something close to a 2009 year out of Correia, adjusted for the AL, which would put him well above your projections. Hopefully, he is thinking he can get a great half-season out of Correia coming into a league unfamiliar with his stuff and can deal him before the deadline Unfortunately, there are 3 intervening years of mediocrity between that year and this, coupling that with the Twins defense, 200/4.75 seems to be the projection that's too optimistic.

Here's a question: Why haven't the Twins and Pavano inked another contract?

Last year, Correia had an ERA+ of 88 (his best in three years). Henderson Alvarez also had an ERA+ of 88. Correia's ERA was 4.21, Alvarez ERA was 4.85

Originally Posted by Willihammer

Here's a question: Why haven't the Twins and Pavano inked another contract?

It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.