Thread: Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

You make a fair point- I do wonder if it's possible that Ryan doesn't care to shed insight into their process.

Originally Posted by josecordoba

I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

Nothing personal, but this post might look stupid, right now. The very quote above:

"But I have a lot of faith and trust in people that have seen him, and they were adamant that this guy can help us. He's a little bit better than a fifth starter. ..."

demonstrates that this GM made a panic-signing based on a reckless thought process, and is in severe back-pedal mode.

This article is reminiscient of all the FO "apologies" and excuses made about Nishi in spring training of his debut year. Those names still haven't been named, will the "adamant" scouts on this deal stay similarly anonymous?

I think Jr's intentionally mystifying the process, if anything. Correia's a guy who doesn't walk many or strike many out. Its as simple as that.

Btw, Jr said "I don't think we overpaid drastically," which to me sounds like he accepts that they overpaid somewhat. Whatever market inefficiency there might have been that undervalued low walk/low strikeout guys, its not there anymore.

I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

I recall (maybe in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook) Terry Ryan speaking about scouting accountability at some length. At certain point, those who end up recommending the likes of Marquis and Correia (if indeed he ends up a lemon) need to have less influence. We'll see.

I doubt it's the same scout or even group of scouts that are recommending the bulldog Correia and championing the likes of Meyer and Mays. It's just too bad there isn't more public accountability for scouts--as it'd make good forum fodder, and more precise criticisms.

Overall though, the minor league/draft philosophy on pitchers seems promising and a marked shift from what we knew as the Twins; if some of these pitchers work out, and the scouting philosophy looks sustaining, maybe it can graduate to the major league level and into our evaluations of free agents. We can hope.

Originally Posted by lightfoot789

I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

You value the win stat?

The win discussion sidesteps, the actual discussion of where guys like Correia (or even Blackburn in his prime (Ha!)) actually have value. Innings matter, and the capacity to pitch deeply into games even when doing poorly matters, it saves the bullpen at minimum. At the major league level, consistent mediocrity is preferable to scattershot success and failure (like say Liriano or Deduno), even the though the latter gives you something to dream on.

Originally Posted by lightfoot789

I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

Ha, duck and cover, it's going to get ugly pretty quick!

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

The win discussion sidesteps, the actual discussion of where guys like Correia (or even Blackburn in his prime (Ha!)) actually have value. Innings matter, and the capacity to pitch deeply into games even when doing poorly matters, it saves the bullpen at minimum. At the major league level, consistent mediocrity is preferable to scattershot success and failure (like say Liriano or Deduno), even the though the latter gives you something to dream on.

Did you not read the article? Correia's inability to get past the 6th inning was one of Mackey's points of contention.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I doubt it's the same scout or even group of scouts that are recommending the bulldog Correia and championing the likes of Meyer and Mays. It's just too bad there isn't more public accountability for scouts--as it'd make good forum fodder, and more precise criticisms.

Overall though, the minor league/draft philosophy on pitchers seems promising and a marked shift from what we knew as the Twins; if some of these pitchers work out, and the scouting philosophy looks sustaining, maybe it can graduate to the major league level and into our evaluations of free agents. We can hope.

These aren't guys working in underground caves looking forward to "graduation", unaware of what the other group in the "advanced" adjoining cave are recommending at the major league level. There were/are harder-throwing ML FAs available, the Twins chose not to aggressively pursue them, except for speculative reclamation projects. Choose for yourself to speculate on the reasons why they weren't signed, but regardless, I agree that it's past time to "out" the evaluation staff out of their cave(s).

Originally Posted by ThePuck

You value the win stat?

Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

Originally Posted by old nurse

Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

Because they have very little correlation with performance would be one explanation. That they have even less worth as a predictive tool is another.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Did you not read the article? Correia's inability to get past the 6th inning was one of Mackey's points of contention.

He went past the 6th inning 3 times last year. 3 times out of 28 starts

Originally Posted by old nurse

Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

King Felix winning the Cy Young with 13 wins.

Whle he also had a 2.27 ERA, 249.2 IP, 8.4 K/9, a 1.057 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 174 ERA+.

I cant believe CC and his 21 wins didnt win the award and he actually placed 3rd that year. Outrage!

Originally Posted by lightfoot789

I agree with gmarais66 - I don't believe in stats as a tell all - unless it's about Wins. Correia won 12 games last year Twins Fans. That's is twice as much as any player on the entire Twins team not named Diamond. Twice as much. Why doesn't anyone acknowledge that he did some good in 2012. And he played for the Pirates, who had 1 superstar hitter. We at least had 2. 12 Wins!! Why can't he duplicate that with the Twins - even in the AL. By the way the last 2 WS champions were from the NL. I get tired of hearing how the switch to the AL for a pitcher is such a major adjustment. An adjustment - yes. A major adjustment - no. Pitchers have to pitch, like hitters have to hit. A game of adjustments. Let's see what Correia can do and support the man in his first few outings without reservations and I told you so's.

Marquis made a nice "major adjustment" going back to the NL...

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Because they have very little correlation with performance would be one explanation.

This

Plus it's a stat that should be a team stat. If wins and losses were a good stat to judge pitchers by I'd have to conclude that Phillips Hughes was a better pitcher than Felix Hernandez in the year Felix Hernandez won the CY Young (2010). Hughes went 18-8 with an ERA of 4.19 and an ERA+ of 103. Felix Hernandez went 13-12 and had an ERA of 2.27 and his ERA+ of 174.

Heck, if we extend that out. Felix Hernandez was 13-12 in his CY year and Correia was 12-11 last year. If I judged by wins and losses, I'd conclude that Correia was ever so slightly worse than Felix Hernadez was the year he won the Cy Young.

Wins and losses don't tell us anything when it comes to pitcher's performance...

Originally Posted by old nurse

Obviously he does. Want to explain why he shouldn't value a win stat?

Heck, I was just gonna wait for an answer and see what he said and then let it go, regardless of his answer. Just wanted to know how much value he put in it. I suppose next time I'll phrase it that way instead...figured he'd let me know when he answered.

Originally Posted by edavis0308

King Felix winning the Cy Young with 13 wins.

Whle he also had a 2.27 ERA, 249.2 IP, 8.4 K/9, a 1.057 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and 174 ERA+.

I cant believe CC and his 21 wins didnt win the award and he actually placed 3rd that year. Outrage!

Santana is still waiting for Colon to give him his 2005 AL CY Young award....

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Did you not read the article? Correia's inability to get past the 6th inning was one of Mackey's points of contention.

Did you put those numbers into context? Correia pitched 6+ innings 19 times (14 times exactly 6 innings); in any case, the Twins will leave him out there longer, as there's no need to pinch hit in the American League.

Wow, it's getting to a point where I really want to be wrong and have Correia make TR (JR) look like a genius (against all odds for this signing). We can't unwind the clock to get a strikeout pitcher, so at what FIP or ERA+ do we start saying we got what we paid for?