01-21-2013, 03:12 PM #1
ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016
This is "Insider" only, so please be respectful about lifting content, but ESPN writer Jason Martinez thinks the Twins optimal year of contention is 2016. What do you think. Will we need to wait four more seasons?
01-21-2013, 03:16 PM #2
Why rush our prospects? Let's shoot for 2020.
But seriously, I will be pretty unhappy with this organization if it takes them 4 years to get back into "contention" in the AL Central.
01-21-2013, 03:17 PM #3
i could not access the insider article. but 2016 is when Kepler, Buxton, and Berrios should be ready. Along with a whole slew of older prospects.
01-21-2013, 03:19 PM #4
I still think this is final year of rebuild - 2014 is transition year - 2015 is first year of real contention. This is assuming things go pretty well and a high percentage of prospects perform close to expected. If not it could be much longer.
01-21-2013, 03:29 PM #5
01-21-2013, 03:44 PM #6
This is sort of what I was trying to hint at in my post today. It's pretty optimistic to believe the Twins are going to build a contender around their current wave of prospects as soon as 2014 or even 2015. As drjim notes, it would require the vast majority of the guys they're counting on to stay healthy and on track (or in many cases ahead of expected schedule), which usually just isn't how it goes.
At this point in 2015, Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, May, Sano and Hendriks will all be 25 or younger – not even into their "prime" years yet.
01-21-2013, 03:44 PM #7
01-21-2013, 03:55 PM #8
This is also the point I was trying to get at in my post on the thread to Nick's article today. I sometimes wonder if our board posters, whom I think are more knowledgeable than the average fan, forget that it's one thing to arrive, another thing to thrive. If we're talking about a core of Hicks, Arcia, Meyer, May, Sano and Hendriks then we're talking 2016. If you want to talk Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, etc. Well, that's the second wave to reinforce the first and the two groups won't be formidable together until 2018/2019.
01-21-2013, 04:15 PM #9
2015/2016 is when most of our best prospects should be up...not sure that automatically makes them contenders. 2016 is a bit unrealistic.
01-21-2013, 04:20 PM #10
I think that they will be competitive in 2014 and 2015 as the prospects get their feet wet, but 2016 would be the earliest that the could be truly considered contenders.
01-21-2013, 04:46 PM #11
01-21-2013, 04:49 PM #12
01-21-2013, 04:50 PM #13
Perhaps I'm being optimistic but for me:
2014= 2000 Minnesota Twins
01-21-2013, 04:51 PM #14
01-21-2013, 04:52 PM #15
01-21-2013, 05:22 PM #16
This is all assuming that the Twins, in the next 4 years, will make no trades for major league players and won't sign any helpful free agents. Waiting patiently for the roster to be completely turned over to in-house options that may or may not pan out.
The team's been bad the last two years, but this is the AL Central and there's even another wild card now. Isn't it possible that with a couple key free agent additions, even the 2013 Twins could compete? What if Arcia, Hicks, Hendriks, or Gibson (pick one) takes a big step forward in the next year or two?
01-21-2013, 05:28 PM #17-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
01-21-2013, 05:42 PM #18
I think 2015 is a realistic goal.....other than that Yes probably 2016.
In 2015 i could strongly see a roster of something like (just some random sims and guesswork)
Brian Roberts -2B
Aaron Hicks - CF
Joe Mauer -- C
Justin Morneau - 1B/DH
Oswaldo Arcia - LF
Chris Parmelee - DH/RF
Trevor Plouffe - 3B
Eddie Rosaio - 2B/ RF
Brian Dozier - SS
With Miguel Sano in AAA (1B) and probably Kepler, Harrison and others in AA. I see Sano taking over 1B at someway mid-point of 2015 and pushing Morneau down to 5th or 6th in the lineup and at DH.
Dyan Bundy (i have twins trading Willingham, Buxton, Hendriks, Wimmers, Beresford and possibly Parmelee to O's at deadline or 2013 off-season for Bundy and Roberts.)
BJ Hermsen / Vance Worley
Trevor May ( possible closer)
Caleb Theilbar / Tyler Robertson.Top Twins prospects ?
1. Miguel Sano (3B-A+) 2. Byron Buxton (OF-RK) 3. Alex Meyer (SP-AA) 4. Aaron Hicks (OF-AAA), 5. Oswaldo Arcia (OF-AA) 6. Eddie Rosario (2B-A+) 7. Kyle Gibson (SP-AAA) 8. Trevor May (SP-AA) 9. J.O. Berrios (P-RK) 10. Travis Harrison (3B-A) 11. Max Kepler (OF-A) 12. Joe Benson (OF-AAA)13. Jorge Polanco (SS-A) 14. Chris Herrmann (C-AAA) 15. BJ Hermsen (SP-AAA)
01-21-2013, 06:21 PM #19
If the Twins offered Gibson, Buxton,Meyer and Parmalee they would still get turned down.Dylan Bundy is an Ace and you never give up an ace for the package you had.
01-21-2013, 06:31 PM #20
Does that article say (I'm not an insider) what "contention" means?
Contending in the AL central is different from contending for a World Series. I think the Twins are going to be super interesting to watch in 2015 and 2016 what with all the young, developing talent. If they can put it together, the team could be scary good with very little money. A lot of ifs, of course.