Thread: ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Knock on wood, but Beane has a solid track record of identifying top end young pitching regardless of circumstance, Ryan does not. If we are going to judge the guys in the Twins system based on how they are ranked as opposed to waiting to see how they will perform at the MLB level (like we can with most of the A's young arms) we need to ready ourselves for the possiblity they will not be what we have hoped for.

Let us not forget that while BA's top ranking for Gibson was (34) and May was (69), Meyer has not been ranked and our last batch of starters were ranked: Liriano (6), Slowey (71) and gulp, Blackburn (56). I think we've forgotten that Nick Blackburn was once a hotter prospect than May or Meyer currently are.

Agreed, this is all speculation. We have no idea how Meyer, Gibson, et al will fare. All we can do is project from what the analysts say and I like our chances. Obviously Parker and Milone have produced at MLB level and our guys haven't yet, but the comparison is at least "reasonable" if not necessarily "likely". I feel much better that Ryan is the one making the decisions as opposed to Smith.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Knock on wood, but Beane has a solid track record of identifying top end young pitching regardless of circumstance, Ryan does not. If we are going to judge the guys in the Twins system based on how they are ranked as opposed to waiting to see how they will perform at the MLB level (like we can with most of the A's young arms) we need to ready ourselves for the possiblity they will not be what we have hoped for.

Let us not forget that while BA's top ranking for Gibson was (34) and May was (69), Meyer has not been ranked and our last batch of starters were ranked: Liriano (6), Slowey (71) and gulp, Blackburn (56). I think we've forgotten that Nick Blackburn was once a hotter prospect than May or Meyer currently are.

The A's under Beane have been to the playoffs 6 times, won one series. Same as the Twins. Beane finds better pitchers, Ryan finds hittres and fielders. In the end, Beane didn't find enough good pitchers as his across the bay rival.

Originally Posted by old nurse

The A's under Beane have been to the playoffs 6 times, won one series. Same as the Twins. Beane finds better pitchers, Ryan finds hittres and fielders. In the end, Beane didn't find enough good pitchers as his across the bay rival.

Beane also deals with a payroll near half of ours and his team has played in a better division, for the most part. Or so it seems. Astros will drop the division difficulty for a few years :-)

'Twins general manager Terry Ryan has publicly stated that he's likely done making any more significant moves this offseason. But it doesn't mean that he's not checking in with current free agents to see if there's a match before Spring Training.


The Twins still have interest in starting pitchers such as left-hander Joe Saunders, and could add another third baseman to the roster, a player such as Brandon Inge. But Ryan has said that he's happy with the current roster if they don't add any more pieces this offseason. '

Twins Inbox: Will the club add any more pieces? | twinsbaseball.com: News

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

It looks like 2013 is (unofficially) being punted. If the Twins were to somehow reach .500 this year, who’s to say they won’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need?

If they are to somehow reach .500 this year, won’t we be wondering why they didn’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need this offseason?

I understand the argument that the team is likely to become better and better positioned for success moving forward, as their top prospects get older and start entering the fold. But there are also things that can change for the worse going forward. What if Morneau and Pelfrey have good seasons and then leave as free agents, creating new holes? What if one of the young pitchers they’re counting on blows out his elbow next spring and misses the 2014 season? What if this year is Willingham’s/Doumit’s last healthy and productive one in a Twins uniform?

I just don’t understand making no real effort to improve the immediate quality of your product when you’ve got a 30-year-old Joe Mauer making $23 million, and a bunch of pretty good players around him. Makes absolutely no sense to me. There are times where it’s logical to throw the towel in on a season before it begins but this isn’t one of them.

Originally Posted by old nurse

Cute but not incorrect.
The Buehrle figure came from a reporting of a Ken Rosenthal feed some time ago,

Yeah, we saw your report, still waiting for evidence of your claim. Either you can't comprehend what you read or you're, again, trolling.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I said "supplement the roster with veterans". I never said make "big contract splashes." You're right, that strawman sure was smug.

Cute way of pickign out the one part of a reply that you could save face on and ignore the bulk of the post....doing so with an accusation of a strawman? That is some truly ironic stuff right there.

What you said is that anyone being skeptical about future payroll dollars being as high as we might expect is that they are being "baselessly negative". Again, to try and diminish a point of view with some pretty smug BS. This offseason and the spending patterns give PLENTY of valid reasons for skepticism about future payroll. Until we're shown a tendency differently, it's perfectly reasonable. It's all speculation, but it's not "baseless". That would be a far more appropriate way to describe your response.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I mentioned his contract would be coming off the books along with the contracts of the other players mentioned in the post I quoted...

You must have missed old nurse suggesting that 2016 payroll could be higher if Blackburn was signed to an extension.

Yeah...that happened.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

If they are to somehow reach .500 this year, won’t we be wondering why they didn’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need this offseason?

I understand the argument that the team is likely to become better and better positioned for success moving forward, as their top prospects get older and start entering the fold. But there are also things that can change for the worse going forward. What if Morneau and Pelfrey have good seasons and then leave as free agents, creating new holes? What if one of the young pitchers they’re counting on blows out his elbow next spring and misses the 2014 season? What if this year is Willingham’s/Doumit’s last healthy and productive one in a Twins uniform?

I just don’t understand making no real effort to improve the immediate quality of your product when you’ve got a 30-year-old Joe Mauer making $23 million, and a bunch of pretty good players around him. Makes absolutely no sense to me. There are times where it’s logical to throw the towel in on a season before it begins but this isn’t one of them.

Totally.

I think this whole idea of expecting big things in 2016 is ridiculous and asinine. We have no idea what kinds of factors could come about in the mean time, positive and negative, that could completely derail that idea.

We haven't been used to this kind of losing streak with this team for a while, but I bet that every year some baseball wonk writes an article about how the Royals sure look good on paper in 2012...2013....2014... ad infinitum.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

You must have missed old nurse suggesting that 2016 payroll could be higher if Blackburn was signed to an extension.

Yeah...that happened.

Seriously?

Originally Posted by Boom Boom

We haven't been used to this kind of losing streak with this team for a while, but I bet that every year some baseball wonk writes an article about how the Royals sure look good on paper in 2012...2013....2014... ad infinitum.

They've been saying that about the Royals for 5, 6 years now haven't they? Bound to get it right one of these years

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Seriously?

Yes, and we should all be ashamed for associating with this thread as a result. This was posted in reference to the 2016 payroll:

Any player on the roster could be extended. That would include Pelfrey, Willingham and Blackburn along with Morneau .

Yeah....that happened.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Cute way of pickign out the one part of a reply that you could save face on and ignore the bulk of the post....doing so with an accusation of a strawman? That is some truly ironic stuff right there.

What you said is that anyone being skeptical about future payroll dollars being as high as we might expect is that they are being "baselessly negative". Again, to try and diminish a point of view with some pretty smug BS. This offseason and the spending patterns give PLENTY of valid reasons for skepticism about future payroll. Until we're shown a tendency differently, it's perfectly reasonable. It's all speculation, but it's not "baseless". That would be a far more appropriate way to describe your response.

Dude, I'm just not going to respond to your accusations of smugness, pardon me.

You're using the payroll after two losing seasons as a model for how the Twins will run their business during their next competitive window? Really? I just don't think that's valid at all. The Twins signed Doumit/Willingham/Carroll/Marquis all after a losing season, just last year. That's the kind of signings I've always been talking about. The notions that the Twins payroll will actually be around 60 million and that the Twins won't acquire players to supplement their roster in 2015 seem baseless to me.

(As an aside, when correcting someone on their smugness, one probably should resist the urge to be smug. Again, I really don't think you even disagree with me here, you're just taking pot-shots.)

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

You must have missed old nurse suggesting that 2016 payroll could be higher if Blackburn was signed to an extension.

Yeah...that happened.

I believe what I read was if by some miracle Blackburn came back and pitched very well what would the Twins do. Judging by your comments, I would have to say you very well know what a troll is when you look in the mirror. Do you own the site to be allowed such jerk behavior? Dakota wasn't allowed this kind of behavior.

Originally Posted by The Wise One

I believe what I read was if by some miracle Blackburn came back and pitched very well what would the Twins do. Judging by your comments, I would have to say you very well know what a troll is when you look in the mirror. Do you own the site to be allowed such jerk behavior? Dakota wasn't allowed this kind of behavior.

Yeah, I'm being a jerk after this person has insisted on weeks of ridiculous comments. If your response to "how is the 2016 payroll going to be filled out" perhaps we should add 20M for Drew Butera's impending MVP season? Or at what point is something so ridiculous that you should leave it off your list?

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

You're using the payroll after two losing seasons as a model for how the Twins will run their business

So after probably 4 losing seasons....it'll be better? At best we can hope 2015 looks like 2000, but it's still not likely to be a wild success. And, mind you, that by 2016 the only contract that will be on our docket is Mauer. So to get to 60M will require buying two of Doumit/Willingham/Carrol/Marquis to fit the other 30 or so million available. I'm having trouble believing that is so certain to happen that calling skepticism about it "baseless" is valid.

Given how much the payroll has dropped the last two years and not been replaced, it is perfectly reasonable to be a skeptic about how the payroll being dropped from Morneau and others in the future will be filled. You're basing it on hope and reasonable expectations. That's fine, I'm not criticizing your perspective. What I'm criticizing is you labeling skepticism "baseless". The skepticism is based on trends under this administration. It's hardly "baseless" - a claim you twice made.

1. When I see some proof that payroll isn't going to keep going down, I'll believe it. Until then, well, lets just say the trend isn't encouraging.

2. I, for one, think 2016 is a nice pipe dream to sell fans. If that gives you a warm fuzzy, great. As for me, my fandom is pretty much tied up in 2013. I don't give a rat's arse about how many games they might win in 2016. Even if you could somehow predict what the Twins will look like in three years--which none of us can--how does that help you enjoy watching this ​team? I'm paying money in 2013 to watch the 2013 team. I'll worry about the 2016 team in 2016.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

So after probably 4 losing seasons....it'll be better? At best we can hope 2015 looks like 2000, but it's still not likely to be a wild success.

At best we can hope that 2015 looks like 2000? Hell, I'd say that at best we can hope that 2013 looks like 2000 as Hendriks, Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks come up and play well. If we're talking "at best" situations, that'd be the "best" situation for the team (not to mention that the 2000 team did not have a Mauer or Morneau on the roster).

Starting this season, the Twins should have a steady flow of prospects coming through the system. Will they work out and play well right off the bat? Probably not but it's possible that they come up and start playing well a hell of a long time before 2015.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Yeah, I'm being a jerk after this person has insisted on weeks of ridiculous comments. If your response to "how is the 2016 payroll going to be filled out" perhaps we should add 20M for Drew Butera's impending MVP season? Or at what point is something so ridiculous that you should leave it off your list?

So when someone you don't like says something you knee jerk and rip. It was just a list of people in the Twinssystem. It had been speculated here that Ryan wanted Blackburn for this year to have a chance to win a job. The Saunders talk didn't surface until Blackburn's injury. It wasn't totally out of reason to have a little hope.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

At best we can hope that 2015 looks like 2000? Hell, I'd say that at best we can hope that 2013 looks like 2000 as Hendriks, Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks come up and play well. If we're talking "at best" situations, that'd be the "best" situation for the team (not to mention that the 2000 team did not have a Mauer or Morneau on the roster).

The thing is, that 2000 team didn't have any star players. I'd say the best case is closer to 2008, a season which reflected the impact that Mauer and Morneau can have. Take a look at that team around them – mediocre rotation, several lineup holes, key player lost to injury (Cuddyer). Still came within a game of making the playoffs. I hear people say, why bother spending to get better if you can't realistically contend for a title, but I think that's a baffling viewpoint. How much more fun was that 2008 season than the last two?

That was the year after Santana and Hunter departed, a season that was billed quite openly as one for rebuilding. And so the Twins hacked down payroll and took the cheap route in free agency, filling holes with players like Livan Hernandez, Mike Lamb and Adam Everett. Because, I mean, why spend money when you're rebuilding? Great call. Missed the playoffs by one game.