Thread: ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

Originally Posted by old nurse

Don't tell Phil Rizzuto that.

OK, good catch.
But to be fair, Gil McDougald played 120 games at SS, Billie Hunter played a few and Jerry Lumpe played a few. Rizzuto played in 31 games total and only had 66 plate appearances all year. He was not their primary SS.

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

How about the 2012 Oakland A's as proof it can be done?

Their top 5 hitters in AB:
Reddick - Age 25, first full year, three partials
Cespedes - Age 27, rookie
Weeks - Age 25, second full season
Crisp - 33, veteran
Pennington - 28, 4 years, 3 as a starter

Top 5 Pitchers (IP)
Milone - 25, rookie
Parker - 24, rookie
Colon - 39, veteran
McCarthy - 28, 7 year vet
Blackley/Griffin - 29/24, both essentially rookies

What do they have that the Twins can't manage by 2016?

Weeks was so awful he got demoted to AAA for the stretch run.

What do the A's have that the Twins don't? They have a grotesquely overcompensating pitchers park and this whole century they've had a steady stream of top end pitching talent and a GM who knows how to deal them at their peak value to ensure that he can obtain the maximum return, which usaully means getting no less than two more stud young arms to replace the one he just gave up. He nearly never wiffs when he gets pitching talent back in return.

Originally Posted by lightfoot789

2016 -
1B - Parmelee (25 HRs)
2B - Rosario (Doubles machine)
SS - Costly Free Agent Gem
3B - Sano (30+ HRs)
LF - Arcia (one of MLB Elite Hitters by 2016)
CF - Hicks (Jack of all trades / Great OBP)
RF - Roberts (.400 OBP) and / or Walker (20+ HRs)
DH - Mauer
C - Hermann or guy from Kepler trade
)

I am actually quite intrigued by the idea of Mauer being a full-time DH. He may hit like he did in '09 if he can devote 100% of his energy to offense?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?

If Meyer, May, Gibson, and Berrios become as competent as expected...we got a real shot at something.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Weeks was so awful he got demoted to AAA for the stretch run.

What do the A's have that the Twins don't? They have a grotesquely overcompensating pitchers park and this whole century they've had a steady stream of top end pitching talent and a GM who knows how to deal them at their peak value to ensure that he can obtain the maximum return, which usaully means getting no less than two more stud young arms to replace the one he just gave up. He nearly never wiffs when he gets pitching talent back in return.

So you are saying the Twins can't produce pitching from the minors to replace Parker and Milone? Parker may have been a more highly rated prospect than we have, but Gibson, Meyer and May have on found their names on top 100 lists. I couldn't find evidence of Milone being that highly rated. Colon, McCarthy and Blackley/Griffin can be replaced by what we already have and potentially a middle-tier FA in the next two years (although most would doubt the second part after this offseason).

Parker - Meyer
Milone - Gibson
Colon - Worley
McCarthy - Diamond
#5 - Hendriks/May/Wimmers/Berrios

Originally Posted by ThePuck

If that's the argument then every single team in baseball is a contender every year...sold...without exception. Cool...2016 it is. Heck, why not this year?

Condescending post of the thread award....congrats!

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

And who said it was hard to tell sarcasm in emails and posts? You clearly have it mastered. You asked for proof, so I gave it to you. Way to go off the deep end. I'm not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable. Is there any gray area in your world?

You DID say it's likely they'll contend in 2016...in fact, you said they'd contend for AL Central title in 2015 and 2016. On this very thread. Which is how we got started talking about it. Here's what you wrote:

2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?

Now you're saying that your 'not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable'. If that was your view from the start, doubt we're even debating this now...cause almost anything is possible. We're talking about what's likely. I didn't think it was likely, and now you're sayign the same thing. So why are we debating?

You gave one example of how it's possible as your proof to say it's reasonable we'd do it in 2016. And my question was legitimate: If you're gonna use 2012 Oakland As as your argument, why not 2013 Twins?

Originally Posted by twinsnorth49

Condescending post of the thread award....congrats!

Not even close...but thanks...getting a condescending award from you, now that's truly something. I imagine if I was on your side of the argument, I wouldn't hear a peep. The side that defends Ryan and the Pohlads at almost every turn...in this case, by pointing to an unrealistic time frame to shoot for as a reason to do nothing for the now.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

You gave one example of how it's possible as your proof to say it's reasonable we'd do it in 2016. And my question was legitimate: If you're gonna use 2012 Oakland As as your argument, why not 2013 Twins?

Then are you abandoning your negativity as Physics Guy posted what could optimally match the 2012 Oakland pitching staff without using the C word? Rather than Meyer, Hendricks would have to step up as would Hermsen or any of the suspects from last year's staff.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

If you were Morneau, would you sign here, knowing that they are likely not to be serious contenders until 2015/6? If the money was the same, would you rather be here or Toronto or Texas or elsewhere? Many of you state they cannot sign players because people do not want to play here, Does that apply to Morneau? Right field is a killer here, after all.

You could definitely be right. All I'm saying is if he is healthy and wants to stay I think there is a really good chance he does.

I am not among the people you are referring to. I firmly believe you can sign anyone if you overpay enough. When money is close factors like comfort, team success and ballpark factor in.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Not even close...but thanks...getting a condescending award from you, now that's truly something. I imagine if I was on your side of the argument, I wouldn't hear a peep. The side that defends Ryan and the Pohlads at almost every turn...in this case, by pointing to an unrealistic time frame to shoot for as a reason to do nothing for the now.

Wrong on all counts, you should actually read some people's posts instead of just relentlessly pursuing your single minded agenda. I don't defend Ryan or the Pohlads at every turn,far from it, go ahead, check. I am willing at times to consider possibilities from a different perspective though and at times give them some consideration, mainly because most of these conversations have been going on since early December, a bit early for me. I just don't waste a lot of breath convincing myself of what isn't going to happen.

I haven't posted a single thing stating this team will contend in 2015 or 2016, I have stated an opinion that I believe they will be "competitive" however, that's unrealistic? That has nothing to do with giving them a pass for doing nothing for the now, something I have never done.

My comment had nothing to do with "sides", it was a reference to your habit of mocking certain posts and then feigning innocence. Yeah, I can be condescending, but at least I can own it, why don't you try?

Seems pretty asinine to me to put together a Twins 2016 roster at this point. They've got some good prospects who should be up by then, but some won't pan out, and others may be traded.

It looks like 2013 is (unofficially) being punted. If the Twins were to somehow reach .500 this year, who's to say they won't pick up a decent free agent at a position of need? If they wind up closer than they think, they're not going to kick the can down the road to 2016 just to wait for prospects.

Originally Posted by twinsnorth49

Wrong on all counts, you should actually read some people's posts instead of just relentlessly pursuing your single minded agenda. I don't defend Ryan or the Pohlads at every turn,far from it, go ahead, check. I am willing at times to consider possibilities from a different perspective though and at times give them some consideration, mainly because most of these conversations have been going on since early December, a bit early for me. I just don't waste a lot of breath convincing myself of what isn't going to happen.

I haven't posted a single thing stating this team will contend in 2015 or 2016, I have stated an opinion that I believe they will be "competitive" however, that's unrealistic? That has nothing to do with giving them a pass for doing nothing for the now, something I have never done.

My comment had nothing to do with "sides", it was a reference to your habit of mocking certain posts and then feigning innocence. Yeah, I can be condescending, but at least I can own it, why don't you try?

I don't have a single minded agenda. For example, I'm not a fan of Gardy...have many issues with him...but I won't blanket slam him for everything and I'll defend him if need be. Same with Ryan. I've read your posts...I went back and read your posts..before I wrote what I did. You do spend a good amount of time defending Ryan and his actions as it comes to building the team. So, yeah, agreeing with the 2016 time frame for contention is an extension of that...since his actions seem geared towards that. Of course, you did say he should be held to what he says...without, of course, actually saying he was lying...

As far as me feigning innocence or whatever, I have no reason to be dishonest...ever...on anything. I own everything I say. If I say I didn't mean something to come out the way it seemed, it's up to the person to believe or not. I can't make him believe or not, but that's not on me. I'm not going to tippy-toe around in here, though. I believe, for the most part, I'm pretty darn respectful. I get frustrated once in awhile, like most, but I pretty much stick to the standard of 'I'll only say on-line what I would say in person'

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I don't have a single minded agenda. For example, I'm not a fan of Gardy...have many issues with him...but I won't blanket slam him for everything and I'll defend him if need be. Same with Ryan.

As far as me feigning innocence or whatever, I have no reason to be dishonest...ever...on anything. I own everything I say. If I say I didn't mean something to come out the way it seemed, it's up to the person to believe or not. I can't make him believe or not, but that's not on me. I'm not going to tippy-toe around in here, though. I believe, for the most part, I'm pretty darn respectful. I get frustrated once in awhile, like most, but I pretty much stick to the standard of 'I'll only say on-line what I would say in person'

right

Originally Posted by old nurse

right

It's fine, it doesn't matter if you believe me or not..or if anyone does to be honest.

The thing about projections is none of them are very good. Look at the 2011 and 2012 PECOTA, CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS projections. I got the final editions for most of them here. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pI...NIVHA1NVk/edit

We all know the Orioles and A's outperformed everyone's 2012 projections, but the Red Sox underperformed by just as much. People seem to forget that as many teams underperform their projections, as overperform. There were teams spread all over in 2011 as well (Twins, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Nationals - all finished 10 games or further from most of these projections.)

This is not a knock on people who like to follow prospects, and none of these projections are forecasting beyond the next season, but if they were, I think its safe to say that they would be even more off, to the point where they would be almost totally meaningless.

Its for this reason that I think you really have to weigh immediate gains more heavily than future ones. Nevermind what is going on with your own players, there are teams underperforming by 20 games or more every year and creating random windows that nobody can possibly see coming

Originally Posted by ThePuck

You DID say it's likely they'll contend in 2016...in fact, you said they'd contend for AL Central title in 2015 and 2016. On this very thread. Which is how we got started talking about it. Here's what you wrote:

2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?

Now you're saying that your 'not saying it's likely they contend in 2016, but it certainly isn't unreasonable'. If that was your view from the start, doubt we're even debating this now...cause almost anything is possible. We're talking about what's likely. I didn't think it was likely, and now you're sayign the same thing. So why are we debating?

You gave one example of how it's possible as your proof to say it's reasonable we'd do it in 2016. And my question was legitimate: If you're gonna use 2012 Oakland As as your argument, why not 2013 Twins?

Next time, read the whole thing...

"Here's what I think is reasonable:
2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year
2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season
2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?
2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes"

...then you would be right, we probably wouldn't be having the debate. I said it was what was reasonable all along, not necessarily likely. I don't think any of us have that good of a crystal ball. I will say that after looking back at '14 and '15 that might be a little agressive.

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

Next time, read the whole thing...

"Here's what I think is reasonable:
2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year
2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season
2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?
2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes"

...then you would be right, we probably wouldn't be having the debate. I said it was what was reasonable all along, not necessarily likely. I don't think any of us have that good of a crystal ball. I will say that after looking back at '14 and '15 that might be a little agressive.

So reasonable isn't likely? Are we just dancing around the words? I don't think it's likely we'll be contending in 2016 with a team mostly full of starters that are now currently still in the minors. I think it's far fetched.

In any event, fine. I stand corrected. I misunderstood what you were saying, I was focusing on the 'likely' part. If I had seen, 'not likely' originally, that's when I don't think we'd have had this debate, but that's on me. I truly apologize.

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

So you are saying the Twins can't produce pitching from the minors to replace Parker and Milone? Parker may have been a more highly rated prospect than we have, but Gibson, Meyer and May have on found their names on top 100 lists. I couldn't find evidence of Milone being that highly rated. Colon, McCarthy and Blackley/Griffin can be replaced by what we already have and potentially a middle-tier FA in the next two years (although most would doubt the second part after this offseason).

Parker - Meyer
Milone - Gibson
Colon - Worley
McCarthy - Diamond
#5 - Hendriks/May/Wimmers/Berrios

Knock on wood, but Beane has a solid track record of identifying top end young pitching regardless of circumstance, Ryan does not. If we are going to judge the guys in the Twins system based on how they are ranked as opposed to waiting to see how they will perform at the MLB level (like we can with most of the A's young arms) we need to ready ourselves for the possiblity they will not be what we have hoped for.

Let us not forget that while BA's top ranking for Gibson was (34) and May was (69), Meyer has not been ranked and our last batch of starters were ranked: Liriano (6), Slowey (71) and gulp, Blackburn (56). I think we've forgotten that Nick Blackburn was once a hotter prospect than May or Meyer currently are.