01-21-2013, 06:35 PM #21
1B - Parmelee (25 HRs)
2B - Rosario (Doubles machine)
SS - Costly Free Agent Gem
3B - Sano (30+ HRs)
LF - Arcia (one of MLB Elite Hitters by 2016)
CF - Hicks (Jack of all trades / Great OBP)
RF - Roberts (.400 OBP) and / or Walker (20+ HRs)
DH - Mauer
C - Hermann or guy from Kepler trade
Buxton to CF in 2017 (@ 22 yrs old) & Hicks to RF
Kepler traded for MLB ready SP Pitcher or Catcher in 2016 as he is by now a Top 50 MLB Prospect
Pitchers from 2012 draft and higher pitching prospects ready by 2016 (Atlanta Braves Pitching Prospect Ready = always ready when called on)
01-21-2013, 07:07 PM #22
What if Sano can't play 3B? and its hard to imagine the organization getting a "Free Agent Gem" at shortstop. But lets hope that all shakes out
01-21-2013, 08:12 PM #23
People aren't factoring the payroll flexibility. The team will not be just full of prospects (and Mauer) in 2015 and 2016, the Twins will supplement their young core with plenty of veterans, you betcha.
01-21-2013, 08:19 PM #24
01-21-2013, 08:31 PM #25
The Twins did have a 100 million payroll. And even after 2011's losing season, still had a 90 million 2012 team. If the Twins sign Saunders (or others) the payroll will approach 90 million this year. I'm not suggesting that the Twins will have a payroll of 100 million in 2015, but it's pretty reasonable to expect something more than a roster full of serfs and arb players.
01-21-2013, 08:33 PM #26
You're saying the Twins will do what they have never done before, go hit the FA market bigtime...
What are YOU basing your optimism on in regards to that? I have a pattern of action, what do you have? Baseless optimism..
Edit...sarcasm for affect, not to be mean
Last edited by ThePuck; 01-21-2013 at 08:52 PM.
01-21-2013, 08:58 PM #27
We are back to being a small Market Team. 30 Million came off the payroll, and Ryan is making the same type of moves that he did with his 30+ million payroll's.
01-21-2013, 09:08 PM #28
"This doesn't mean this is the only year that the team can contend, but rather which year should provide it the best chance for a World Series title."
Here's what I think is reasonable:
2013 - Rebuilding year, Parmelle, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Gibson and Hendriks become full-time starters during the year
2014 - Competitive team (80 - 85 wins) - Benson or Roberts replaces Willingham in the OF, Meyer comes up mid-season
2015 - Contend for AL Central - Rosario, Sano and May potentially up at some point
2016 - Contend for AL Central - core developed in '13 is in fourth full season, Berrios, Buxton, Kepler ready?
2017 - Optimal year for contention - "second wave" of prospects to help fill some of the holes
Obviously there will be holes to deal with (SS,3B or C), but Ryan has payroll flexibility. I doubt he uses a significant amount of it in FA, but maybe he would trade for a solution to those holes (taking on some payroll).
C - Mauer?, Herrmann?
1B - Parmelle, Mauer, Sano?
2B - Dozier, Rosario
SS - Santana, Polanco
3B - Plouffe, Sano?
LF - Arcia, Roberts
CF - Hicks, Buxton
RF - Benson, Kepler
SP - Meyer, Gibson, Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, May, Wimmers, Berrios
01-21-2013, 09:14 PM #29
My point in listing at least two guys at each position in my previous post is that at least they have some options and aren't pinning their hopes on one guy. Certainly some of these guys will not make it, but most are pretty highly thought of prospects. C and 3B are my biggest concerns. Mauer maybe won't catch at all by then and it doesn't seem as though we have an obvious replacement. Sano is no guarantee at 3B (although there is a decent chance) and Plouffe needs to prove he can do it for a full season.
01-21-2013, 09:25 PM #30
01-21-2013, 09:31 PM #31
Its safe to say we are going to be a whole lot better by 2015, or someone is getting fired
01-21-2013, 09:40 PM #32
So ALL of our prospects are gonna come up and be what we hope they'll be RIGHT AWAY...making us contenders in 2016, while the other teams are doing, what?
01-21-2013, 09:53 PM #33
So all the added revenue from Target Field was never really needed.
Last edited by Highabove; 01-21-2013 at 10:00 PM.
01-21-2013, 10:10 PM #34
01-21-2013, 10:41 PM #35
01-21-2013, 10:44 PM #36
Parmelee 28 yrs old, 3+ yrs in MLB
Dozier 29, 3+
Plouffe 30, 4+
Arcia 25, 2/2+
Hicks 26, 2+/3
Add Mauer and anybody else they add to the team to fill holes and it's not exactly like we're playing a bunch of rookies. I'm obviously more optimistic than you, but I'd say Parmelee and Plouffe have a decent chance to be at least 1-2 WAR players. I did some minor league comparisons and Arcia compares favorably with Cuddyer and Kubel with Arcia slightly more advanced. Cuddy and Kubel both put up 20+HR and 100 RBI at 27. Hicks' minors numbers compare favorably with Hunter who by age 25 hit 27/92 and was an All-Star at 26. Hicks probably doesn't hit for quite as much power but has better plate discipline. Both cases are probably near their ceilings, but it's also reasonable to assume they are at least league average by 2016. There is a decent chance neither Dozier nor Benson work out, but they have other guys to fill in for them prior to 2016.
01-21-2013, 10:53 PM #37
01-21-2013, 10:53 PM #38
I'm high on our prospects...Arcia, Hicks, Sano, Rosario...all of four of them...and Hicks is likely the only one who will sniff time this year...so, going into 2016, all but Hicks will have 2 or less years in the Majors. Then there's May and Meyer...2 or less years in the majors going into 2016 as well...Parmellee and Mauer will likely be the old timer position players in 2016.
The '87 team...took them 5 years. So, yeah, 2 years in basically right away...and we'd need to have almost all of them perform up to our high expectations by then to be maybe be contenders.
If you wanna believe 2016 is a realistic time to be division contenders go for it...but it's not. Not if we're counting on mostly guys still in the minors right now.
Last edited by ThePuck; 01-21-2013 at 10:56 PM.
01-21-2013, 11:02 PM #39
01-21-2013, 11:30 PM #40
In reference to "what if" Sano doesn't pan out?
What if all the pitchers develop Tommy John injury? That should be another thread.
Arcia - Sano - Rosario - Hicks - Meyer - Mays - Berrios - All have high chance of being quality starters at MLB level. Some have star potential. If 3 of 7 become a future All Star - Lookout
Last edited by lightfoot789; 01-21-2013 at 11:42 PM.