Thread: Article: The Scope of a Rebuild

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

Duensing is gonna get lit up.

Did he forget how to get lefties out?

Originally Posted by snepp

Did he forget how to get lefties out?

No, he has been fine vs. lefties. But any righty or switch hitter looks like an all-star vs. Brian. His career year (2010) was really good, but he must have forgot how he was successful because its been a g.d. hit parade ever since

Coming out of the bullpen minimizes his exposure to righties, and can maximize his strength. He hasn't simply been "fine" vs lefties, he has owned them to the tune of a .560 OPS against.

He turns lefties into Jeff Mathis.

Basically they are gambling that anyone will even buy a ticket in 2013 or 2014. Good luck Twins.

their bullpen is above average as they will get to keep Deunsing there all season and Harden will make an excellant reliever. Plus Grey will not be here next season (addition by subtraction)

Originally Posted by mako83

I still belive in Saunders it means no rush to bring up gibson also allows us to bring all those guys up at the right time. So would a poseidnick, sweeney, or inge signing in the outfield. Outerwise its a lot of cheap tickets on stubhub.

The magic question is what the right time is. Do you go with temporary parts and let players arrive slowly (right time) as they usually do. A team usually adds 2-3 players that will around for 3-5+ years. They always run thru a couple of part-timers, and maybe a couple who play backend roles for a season or three. If you bring up everyone new at the same time, you are suddenly looking at multiple players in four years making bigger than expected bucks...combined with what else surrounds them.

The Twins ahd a tough 2011, injuries and such. As 2012 began...we had Blackburn signed longer-term and a great option on a healthy Scott Baker. Pavano was expected to be a workhorse if nothing else. Marquis was expected to be the backend starter. We all hoped Liriano would be a stud and force the Twins to invest heavily in the future. Kubel and Cuddyer were replaced. Carroll was a veteran presence for the infield. No one thought Valencia would flameout.

It wasn't a great team, but competitive...if the parts stayed in place. They didn't. Pavano basically died. Baker wasn't worth an expensive chance. Blackburn was a mistake. The minors were still two seasons away from contributing except for AAAA guys, who got their chance, but none worth sticking (except Diamond).

The Twins could spend money to make 2013 and 2014 competitive. But then they traded away the top-of-the-lineup. They added pitchers, but temporary replacements and future unknowns.

Rebuilding is tough. Guys have to play together and if lots of bodies are new, they set the tone on the clubhouse. There is usually failures, as a player or as a team. You may even get a shorter look as that next prospect is jsut as gren and just as hungry.

They have backed themselves into a corner.

Attendance will be a telling sign of what everyone thinks about the Twins...and , of course, their Stadium.

Even-handed take, Nick.

The Time-Line should be in the neighborhood of three years if things go well.

The Nationals were the worst team in Baseball in 2008-2009. They were the best in 2012.

The Detroit Tigers won 43 games in 2003! They made the World Series in 2006.

The San Francisco Giants won 71 games in 2007, 72 games in 2008 they won the World Series in 2010.

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 51 games in 2004 they advanced to the NLCS in 2007.

2016 Seems like a good goal factoring in the ETA of guys like Sano, Rosario, Buxton. The Pitching will develop ahead of the Bats but also factoring in Payroll Flexibility makes 2016 goal.

These comparsions are never going to be perfect. Rebuilding the Team would mean competing for a Playoff Spot in three years. Expectations of being the Best-Team in Baseball or Winning the World Series aren't realistic. I'm not saying these outcomes are impossible they're just not a real good way to measure the success of the Twins Front-Office.

So, joe, they should just punt on fans for 3 years? Serious question. And, by 2016, what will Mauer be? What is the point of paying him $23MM per year, if you are not even going to try to win?

Originally Posted by snepp

The bullpen is above average? It wasn't last year, and they haven't done much to improve it for this season.

Originally Posted by snepp

Yes they were, which was below average (3.55 AL ERA for relievers, Twins were at 3.77). And they were fortunate to rank even that "well," as suggested by their 25th/28th FIP/xFIP rankings and third lowest BABIP mark.

Duensing being back in the bullpen on the full-time basis will help, as will Fien pitching a full season (assuming he continues to pitch well), but above-average as a whole? That may be asking for too much.

I won't argue with ranks but I have to think the performance was greatly impacted by how historically bad the rotation was. There is some talent at the back end and if the starters can get a couple more outs a start that will limit some of the exposure of the guys in the middle and long relievers. This should lead to better performance overall.

The flip side is that if the Twins are truly rebuilding (which they should be) then Perkins and Burton are among their best tfade options at the deadline.

Originally Posted by drjim

I won't argue with ranks but I have to think the performance was greatly impacted by how historically bad the rotation was. There is some talent at the back end and if the starters can get a couple more outs a start that will limit some of the exposure of the guys in the middle and long relievers. This should lead to better performance overall.

This is true, the Twins were right there with the Royals for the 2nd most innings thrown out of the bullpen. Being less reliant on the pen certainly couldn't hurt.

Originally Posted by snepp

Coming out of the bullpen minimizes his exposure to righties, and can maximize his strength. He hasn't simply been "fine" vs lefties, he has owned them to the tune of a .560 OPS against.

He turns lefties into Jeff Mathis.

Well, No. Last year his OPS vs left-handed hitters was .699. I understand he can get lefties out, but he needs to get righties out too, and he has NEVER really been able to do that consistently. He is half a pitcher, or one third of a pitcher if all you can do is pitch him vs. lefties.

30% of MLB hitters are left-handed. 60% right, 10% switch (approximately). So he really doesn't have a job in 2014 if he can't get righties out.

I would stick with my word of "fine" because a lefty specialist isn't a high innings guy. He impacts our staff very little if he plays that role, since we won't be leading many games late....Duensing has A LOT to prove. I wouldn't say he dominated anything last year. And what has he done for us lately? 5.00+ ERA, that's what.

This offseason sure makes it hard to be confident about having a low expected future payroll. It just seems bound to be wasted.

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

This offseason sure makes it hard to be confident about having a low expected future payroll. It just seems bound to be wasted.

Wasted how? And I am excited to see some of these young talents that will be making the league minimum (and probably producing at a higher rate)

Sidenote: snepp, I made you a video here: Sioux Falls Loop - YouTube

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

Sidenote: snepp, I made you a video here: Sioux Falls Loop - YouTube

Yikes, I haven't driven "the loop" in probably 15 years.

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

Wasted how? And I am excited to see some of these young talents that will be making the league minimum (and probably producing at a higher rate)

Wasted by being pocketed. Nick implies it is a good thing for the club to have that much potential availability in the payroll, which normally would be very true. However, after this offseason, I'm hardly willing to count that as a positive.

Originally Posted by mnfanforlife

Check out the two trades I proposed here. I suggested they bring pitching back in trade...

What proposed trades are you talking about? Morneau and Willingham for what?

Originally Posted by darin617

What proposed trades are you talking about? Morneau and Willingham for what?

That needs to be very open-ended because Morneau and Willingham do not have static value. They will either be more or less valuable when/if they are dealt than they are now. So "pitching" is the objective, but a solid minor league shortstop would be awesome in trade for M & W

Originally Posted by TheLeviathan

Wasted by being pocketed. Nick implies it is a good thing for the club to have that much potential availability in the payroll, which normally would be very true. However, after this offseason, I'm hardly willing to count that as a positive.

True, I dont see Ryan spending on free-agent in the A-B class. Slashing payroll is Ryan's MO