Thread: Joe Saunders

Originally Posted by GCTF

Ahhh, hadn't seen your reply.

and now we have a bit of a mess on our hands.

Originally Posted by LaBombo

I agree that Saunders is more likely to pitch 200 or even 175 innings than Worley. I just think too many people aren't recognizing that he has a higher ceiling than the guys he's typically being lumped in with.

And Saunders will be 32 in June, making it his age 32 season ;~ )

If Saunders was the 2nd or 3rd best addition to this years rotation , id say would be a decent signing, but for him to be our ace?
I think a better use of that money would be to acquire the cuban kid Diaz...a long term solution

Blind taste test on career numbers. In one glass, you have Joe Saunders. In the other, you have another cola, and the bane of a large area of Twins Territory, Kevin Correia. Take a sip!:

In 4927 plate appearances, opponents have hit .276/.330/.433, for an OPS of .763, K/9 of 5.1.

Now, rinse. Have a cracker. Cleanse your palate.

In 4634 plate appearances, opponents have hit .272/.335/.429, for an OPS of .764, K/9 of 6.0.

Balls pulled by right handers are killers for both (.439/.435/.797, OPS 1.232 vs .423/.420/.776, OPS 1.196).

I know they have largely pitched in different leagues and these are just the stats I happened to grab, and I know I'm no Alfred Einstein, but what is the attraction to Joe Saunders? Is it that in 2008, he had a 3.41 ERA and was 17-7 (for a team that won 100 games)? Because if it is, I just can't help but look at pretty much every other year in his career. If anybody has some stats that might change my mind, I'll listen, but until then, I see a left-handed version of Kevin Correia type numbers. And in Target Field, a left-handed Kevin Correia type is worse than a right-handed Kevin Correia type, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by scottz

Blind taste test on career numbers. In one glass, you have Joe Saunders. In the other, you have another cola, and the bane of a large area of Twins Territory, Kevin Correia. Take a sip!:

In 4927 plate appearances, opponents have hit .276/.330/.433, for an OPS of .763, K/9 of 5.1.

Now, rinse. Have a cracker. Cleanse your palate.

In 4634 plate appearances, opponents have hit .272/.335/.429, for an OPS of .764, K/9 of 6.0.

Balls pulled by right handers are killers for both (.439/.435/.797, OPS 1.232 vs .423/.420/.776, OPS 1.196).

I know they have largely pitched in different leagues and these are just the stats I happened to grab, and I know I'm no Alfred Einstein, but what is the attraction to Joe Saunders? Is it that in 2008, he had a 3.41 ERA and was 17-7 (for a team that won 100 games)? Because if it is, I just can't help but look at pretty much every other year in his career. If anybody has some stats that might change my mind, I'll listen, but until then, I see a left-handed version of Kevin Correia type numbers. And in Target Field, a left-handed Kevin Correia type is worse than a right-handed Kevin Correia type, in my opinion.

I don't think anybody is in love with Saunders. He does have a couple things, IMO, over Correia. He's been (somewhat) more durable than Correia, and given that he's pitched quite a bit in the AL we don't have to worry as much about stat inflation coming over from a career in the NL.

Originally Posted by scottz

Blind taste test on career numbers. In one glass, you have Joe Saunders. In the other, you have another cola, and the bane of a large area of Twins Territory, Kevin Correia. Take a sip!:

In 4927 plate appearances, opponents have hit .276/.330/.433, for an OPS of .763, K/9 of 5.1.

Now, rinse. Have a cracker. Cleanse your palate.

In 4634 plate appearances, opponents have hit .272/.335/.429, for an OPS of .764, K/9 of 6.0.

Balls pulled by right handers are killers for both (.439/.435/.797, OPS 1.232 vs .423/.420/.776, OPS 1.196).

I know they have largely pitched in different leagues and these are just the stats I happened to grab, and I know I'm no Alfred Einstein, but what is the attraction to Joe Saunders? Is it that in 2008, he had a 3.41 ERA and was 17-7 (for a team that won 100 games)? Because if it is, I just can't help but look at pretty much every other year in his career. If anybody has some stats that might change my mind, I'll listen, but until then, I see a left-handed version of Kevin Correia type numbers. And in Target Field, a left-handed Kevin Correia type is worse than a right-handed Kevin Correia type, in my opinion.

Thankyou! This is exactly what I was alluding to in my post of a few days ago, ie, If you like Correia mediocrity, you should love Saunders- 'cause he'll guarantee you even more "workhorse" innings of mediocrity- only in mirror form. Adding insult to self-inflicted injury- some are suggesting at throwing caution to the wind and paying him more, much more- and with an extra year on the contract. Saunders would get crushed by right-handed bats at Target Field.

Did any of that attempt to account for Correia throwing nearly half of his career innings in the caverns of the NL West?

Originally Posted by snepp

Did any of that attempt to account for Correia throwing nearly half of his career innings in the caverns of the NL West?

Negative. A straight pull of stats, readily admitted. But I don't think there's any massaging that would make the right-handed pulled ball numbers make Saunders look any better, even if Correia's looked worse upon adjustment. (For the record, Saunders numbers were the first listed in all cases.)

Joe Saunders by ERA+ over the last three years: 92, 107, 103.

Kevin Correia by ERA+ over the last three years: 68, 78, 88.

Saunders has also thrown 120 more innings during that span and is a year younger. I don't think anyone here is mesmerized by his 17-win season and certainly he's not the ideal counterbalance to their pitch-to-contact group, but he has established himself as a solid MLB pitcher and that's what the Twins need.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Joe Saunders by ERA+ over the last three years: 92, 107, 103.

Kevin Correia by ERA+ over the last three years: 68, 78, 88.

Saunders has also thrown 120 more innings during that span and is a year younger. I don't think anyone here is mesmerized by his 17-win season and certainly he's not the ideal counterbalance to their pitch-to-contact group, but he has established himself as a solid MLB pitcher and that's what the Twins need.

120 more innings of mediocrity is not much of a sop, and being a year younger with all those extra innings on his arm kind of cancels out the one-year younger age advantage thing.

I previously looked at the 5 year stats and they weren't all that great of a difference, with many stat numbers favoring Correia. The ERA+ stats for 3 year performance which you cite mask some of the glaring stats that compare less favorably to Saunders than Correia, or at best, similarly poorly. The right hand bat difficulties illustrated above really points to potential looming problems in Target Field. Here are some examples of other 3-year comps that belie the ERA+ differential:

Kevin Correia 5.41K*9/4.26xFIP/.268OBA/14%K%/1.38WHIP
Joe Saunders 5.09K*9/4.36xFIP/.275OBA/13.4%K%/1.37WHIP

Sign Marcum!