Thread: Joe Saunders

For anyone who has too much time on their hands for their own good, back in November, I laid out my rationale for why the Twins shouldn't let overpaying, in terms of years on a contract, stop them from going after pitching. You can read it by clicking here.

Obviously, it was written before any of the moves the Twins made to acquire Worley, Meyer and May, so some of the factors have changed, but the overall point that the Twins can AFFORD to give a pitcher they want more years than teams they're competing with for his services, even if it means taking a chance that you end up eating a year or so of that contract down the road, remains valid.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Only interested if the contract is clearly tradable. Obviously I like him more than Correia, but that's not saying much. Why the Twins are still willing to overpay for the pitch-to-contact types is puzzling considering they looked to have learned their lesson judging by who they picked in last year's draft and the arms they got in return for Span and Revere.

I know the "give me power arms!" rant is getting old, but guys who have to rely on luck (or lack of bad luck, perhaps) should not make up more than 20% of your rotation.

Is that realistic? Said another way, if we simplistically bucket pitchers into "power" vs. "contact" are there enough in the first bucket to legitimately expect to not have more than one from the second bucket in your rotation?

Given the tone that often gets missed, I should add the disclaimer that it's an honest question, and I don't know (or even think I know) the answer. Essentially, what % of pitchers can be considered "power" as opposed to "contact." And obviously there is a ton of gray in between, and maybe this is off-topic (and interesting?) enough of a question that it should be taken into a different thread.

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

For anyone who has too much time on their hands for their own good, back in November, I laid out my rationale for why the Twins shouldn't let overpaying, in terms of years on a contract, stop them from going after pitching. You can read it by clicking here.

Obviously, it was written before any of the moves the Twins made to acquire Worley, Meyer and May, so some of the factors have changed, but the overall point that the Twins can AFFORD to give a pitcher they want more years than teams they're competing with for his services, even if it means taking a chance that you end up eating a year or so of that contract down the road, remains valid.

Just not sure Saunders is the type of pitcher I would give an extra year to.If he was the 3 rd best starter we signed , I would be in favor of signing him.But at this point of the off season ,im content going into the season with what we have, I dont believe there are any true assets left on the market

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Reasons for: if you can get him for 2/$20M or less, great. He threw 174+ innings last year, but was over 200 the two previous years and over 180 the two years before that. That will help the bullpen tremendously. It also allows them to be more patient with the likes of May and Meyer.

Reasons against: 2014 rotation would include Saunders, Correia, Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks...and then the Hermsen, May, Meyer, group waits for injury (which may be good), and frankly, if they're doing that well, they won't stop them and will bring them up.

So, in general, I'm good with two years, wouldn't do three years... wouldn't go over $10-11M per.

Don't forget that Worley is still in the mix, too. The reason the Twins are stifled on the free-agent pitching IS that Ryan may be looking at the 2014 and 2015 rotation. Who stays and who doesn't...although Correria being the holdover is not what we all hoped for.

But having a veteran workhorse (ala Pavano) isn't a bad thing, be he a #2,3,4 or 5 starter. Especially if the staff is filling up with youngsters. When we start looking seriously at Meyer, May, Hermsen, Gibson, WImmers and even Hendriks...they can be here for parts of the season and abck in the minors fine-tuning for other parts, hopefully not just this year, but also in 2014 and some in 2015. The real rotation of youngsters should be at the beginning of their peak years as 2016 rolls on stage and continue for the next 3-4 years, with hopefully still more young blood coming up in the wings as we trade arbitration starters for even more prospects. But Saunders not signing makes you still wonder -- what is going on?

Plus, he is a lefthander!

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

Just not sure Saunders is the type of pitcher I would give an extra year to.If he was the 3 rd best starter we signed , I would be in favor of signing him.But at this point of the off season ,im content going into the season with what we have, I dont believe there are any true assets left on the market

I'm not sure Saunders wouldn't be our best starter going into 2013 if we got him. Diamond was a rookie last year and didn't overly impress the 2nd half. I like him, I'm hoping he does well, but at this point I don't think it's a stretch to say Saunders would be, quality-wise, our best starting pitcher in 2013 if he signed...at worst our 2nd best.

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

Just not sure Saunders is the type of pitcher I would give an extra year to.If he was the 3 rd best starter we signed , I would be in favor of signing him.But at this point of the off season ,im content going into the season with what we have, I dont believe there are any true assets left on the market

Come again? You've mocked the Pohlads and Ryan for driving down payroll and buying more Brinks trucks for all the money they've swindled the fans out of but now you're ok with them not spending money?

Saunders isn't exactly a jewel but if they do end up signing him he immediately upgrades the rotation and at least gives some indication they're willing to spend some money.This is the exact type of signing youve been advocating for weeks.

Regardless of the "type"of pitcher he is, he's had a decent track record of success and has consistently put in his innings, it would be a beneficial move with virtually no downside.

Given the market 3/30 is not unreasonable. Every once and a while you have to do what you don't want to do, in this case a 3 year contract. A 3 year contract may not be a good thing for the Twins, but it really isn't bad.

Originally Posted by Rosterman

Plus, he is a lefthander!

I don't think this is something that should be overlooked. Of all the other guys Seth projected for future rotations, plus Worley, the only lefty is Scott Diamond. Are we really comfortable with Diamond being the only lefty in the rotation for the next 3 years? Would we be concerned about Saunders "blocking" Pedro Hernandez or Caleb Thielbar? Are there other southpaws in the upper levels of the organization that are significant SP prospects?

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

I know the "give me power arms!" rant is getting old, but guys who have to rely on luck (or lack of bad luck, perhaps) should not make up more than 20% of your rotation.

That's a pretty consistant lack of bad luck he's had, I guess that makes him pretty damn lucky or maybe pretty good.

Originally Posted by CDog

Is that realistic? Said another way, if we simplistically bucket pitchers into "power" vs. "contact" are there enough in the first bucket to legitimately expect to not have more than one from the second bucket in your rotation?

Given the tone that often gets missed, I should add the disclaimer that it's an honest question, and I don't know (or even think I know) the answer. Essentially, what % of pitchers can be considered "power" as opposed to "contact." And obviously there is a ton of gray in between, and maybe this is off-topic (and interesting?) enough of a question that it should be taken into a different thread.

Not only is it realistic, it's nearly manditory. The consistant playoff contenders regularly field a rotation with 4 guys with a 7.0 K/9+.

The Twins obviously were worst in the league last year with a K/9 of 5.90, .88 worse than the 29th team, the Indians. The Twins have thus far replaced Liriano with Correia, while the Indians replaced Derek Lowe with Trevor Bauer. If teams like the Indians improve just slightly to 7.00-7.10, while the Twins regress to the 5.50-5.60 range, it would be very possible the 29th worst team in this department would actually be closer to the best team in the league than they would be to the Twins.

Unacceptable, this isn't 1980's baseball and Terry Ryan needs to understand making sure the ball reaches the catchers mitt is the best way to prevent runs.

Don't take these statements out of context, Saunders is an upgrade to most of the dreck in the Twins rotation, but this clubs evaluation of pitching needs to change, I'd prefer it change now.

Originally Posted by twinsnorth49

That's a pretty consistant lack of bad luck he's had, I guess that makes him pretty damn lucky or maybe pretty good.

He's yet to meet the Twins infield defense.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

He's yet to meet the Twins infield defense.

I'll concede that one.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

Not only is it realistic, it's nearly manditory. The consistant playoff contenders regularly field a rotation with 4 guys with a 7.0 K/9+.

The Twins obviously were worst in the league last year with a K/9 of 5.90, .88 worse than the 29th team, the Indians. The Twins have thus far replaced Liriano with Correia, while the Indians replaced Derek Lowe with Trevor Bauer. If teams like the Indians improve just slightly to 7.00-7.10, while the Twins regress to the 5.50-5.60 range, it would be very possible the 29th worst team in this department would actually be closer to the best team in the league than they would be to the Twins.

Unacceptable, this isn't 1980's baseball and Terry Ryan needs to understand making sure the ball reaches the catchers mitt is the best way to prevent runs.

Twins were dead last (30th) in Ks last year. The next team up (29th) had 143 more than we did. The difference between 29th and 14th was less than 143. Better have defense behind these guys, cause our best K pitcher (not best pitcher) had over a K per IP and he's gone. Our defense has gotten worse this offseason, which is hard to do.

I like that he is left handed, and thats about it. I look at the numbers and I see a more expensive Correia. Worse opp OBP, worse opp OPS, little better ERA, worse WHIP. If we think he could be trade bait, great. I love signing guys that can bring talent back in a trade. Correia probably not, more likely a Blackburn situation. I used to like the idea of Saunders, until I looked a little deeper. What am I missing?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Twins were dead last (30th) in Ks last year. The next team up (29th) had 143 more than we did. The difference between 29th and 14th was less than 143. Better have defense behind these guys, cause our best K pitcher (not best pitcher) had over a K per IP and he's gone. Our defense has gotten worse this offseason, which is hard to do.

And other teams strikeout numbers are likely on the rise as evidenced by the fact that nearly all of the leftover free agents, including higher profile guys like Lohse and Saunders, are low K guys. Other teams aren't chasing these kind of pitchers, and certainly not willing to over pay for them any longer for a reason.

Again, I realized Saunders is a decent pitcher, I just don't like my favorite team continuing on this antiquated pitching approach.

Originally Posted by COtwin

I like that he is left handed, and thats about it. I look at the numbers and I see a more expensive Correia. Worse opp OBP, worse opp OPS, little better ERA, worse WHIP. If we think he could be trade bait, great. I love signing guys that can bring talent back in a trade. Correia probably not, more likely a Blackburn situation. I used to like the idea of Saunders, until I looked a little deeper. What am I missing?

Lengthy track record of durability. Recent success (3.86 ERA over last two years). Has succeeded in the AL. Has pitched in big games.

Saunders is nothing special, but he'd justifiably be their Opening Day starter and would provide some much-needed stability to the rotation. In that sense he'd be a nice add.

Originally Posted by COtwin

I like that he is left handed, and thats about it. I look at the numbers and I see a more expensive Correia. Worse opp OBP, worse opp OPS, little better ERA, worse WHIP. If we think he could be trade bait, great. I love signing guys that can bring talent back in a trade. Correia probably not, more likely a Blackburn situation. I used to like the idea of Saunders, until I looked a little deeper. What am I missing?

Their ERA+s the last 3, 4 years aren't even close...Correia hasn't had a ERA+ over 88 in the last three years. Saunders has never had a full season where he had an ERA+ as low as 91. Correia hasn't posted an ERA+ over 97 in the last 5 seasons and while he did 6 seasons ago, he only had 8 starts that year. Saunders has posted an ERA+ over 100 the last two season.

I saw someone earlier say 2.5 WAR. ??? I see 0.6 which is much less attractive. I have a feeling that we are being lulled to sleep. Nick the fact that he would be our opening day starter should make all of us depressed, at least it does me. Seems like he is a reliable, durable 3-5, that would probably make a playoff rotation.

I'm on board with Saunders for 2 years... but again, pick a number you're comfortable with... $20 million? 25 million? And stick to it. If he gets that third year, or he gets more than the per-year value, then don't.