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You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=...e-Brian-Dozier
I am still pissed off at how the Twins handled him in 2012. It was just completely and utterly stupid. He is NOT going to be a great player, but I do think he could be (or could have been!) a solid starter until the system generates a viable MI option.
This team did EVERYTHING wrong with Dozier in 2012. He did NOT deserve to be called up when he hadn't done squat in AAA. He needed to see more pitching and learn as a hitter how to adjust to AAA/AAAA level pitching. Then he was kept up much too long instead of being demoted. THEN he finally was sent down and they did not see him at 2B in Rochester. THEN they didn't call him up in September which is somehow even more bizarre than anything else. Good god. Clearly, Florimon-Dozier in the MI should have been an option in September. Escobar is far from ready and Carroll is going to be here anyway in 2013 and everyone knows what he will bring. Dozier will be better in 2013 and should be the starting second baseman. But there is nothing to indicate that this will happen given the ridiculous thinking going on about him last year.
Hopefully he will be better, we need him bad, and this is his big chance.
Dozier had a good 2009 and a good 2011. He went from AA to MLB, a move not recommended for very many. As a SS his value in largely in his fielding. FanGraphs does not highly rate his fielding (though a small sample size).
He will be 26 years old in May. I expect he will get a chance to show he deserves the position, but he will be on a short leash. His time is running out.
I hope they give him a real chance again. Maybe it's at 2B where isn't as likely to sail the ball over Morneau's head on his throws, but he has the potential to hit with some power, something we've not had much of in our MI. It's not hard to see him hitting a dozen or more homers with consistent playing time and performance, he did hit 6 last year in about a half season of plate appearances when he was obviously struggling with the adjustment to almost everything at the major-league level. He'll never be a superstar, but with some better consistency I could imagine a few years of him putting up a .260/.300/.390 line, which wouldn't be the worst seasons ever from a SS or 2B. He might never be anything either, but at least I can see some potential to hit in him, where I can't really see any in Florimon or Escobar.
Parker -- I think you have Dozier's age wrong in the article. 2012 was his age-25 season (not 26), and in 2013 he will turn 26 (not 27).
Shane -- I am sure there is room to criticize the Twins handling of Dozier -- obviously his 2012 results couldn't have been much worse -- but this level of "handling" probably only affects a guy's performance at the margins. The guy was 25 years old and posted a 67 OPS+ at the plate, and was about as "valuable" in the field and at AAA. What would "better handling" have likely achieved? A 75 OPS+ in a full season at AAA? A 67 OPS+ while struggling at second base as well as shortstop? Do either of those outcomes really improve Dozier's outlook?
I would have to guess he will be marginally better in 2013 than 2012, mainly because he couldn't get much worse. I'll also venture a guess and say that Dozier never approaches his 2011 numbers either at AAA or in the majors.
Remember, Dozier dominated AA in 2011 and was about to turn 25 with a month at AAA under his belt when promoted to the majors in May. I don't think that's rushing a guy -- I wouldn't expect him or anyone to hit their full potential right away in that scenario, but they shouldn't absolutely fall of the table either like Dozier did.
I'm not giving up on Dozier. The Twins are going to need at least one MI who can offer something of value offensively and he looks like the best chance of that in the near future.
I don't necessarily agree that all the blame for his poor showing in 2012 should be laid at the feet of Twins management, though. At some point, you have to put the responsibility for performing or not performing on the shoulders of the player and I think it's time for that to happen with Dozier. Let's be honest... if he can't impress enough to earn a job against the paltry competition the Twins have lined up in the middle infield this spring, his future in the game is probably pretty limited.
I'm marginally optimistic that he's going to step up this season.
It's not 'rushing' but he was a 4-year college senior when he was drafted. Drafted at 22 and in the big leagues while still 24, less than three years later is pretty quick.Quote:
Originally Posted by spycake
I agree with Shane on the whole promotion and demotion timing last year, and also on hardly ever playing him at 2B in Rochester. But I think he can be solid. I will back Dozier all day long, and people know that. But I had him ranked 10-12 even before last year which, to me, means solid big league regular. I don't think anyone who studies or follows minor league information thought he was going to be a big star in anyway. I know the media portrayed him as that last spring. I definitely believe that he can be about a league average MLB second baseman. I think people who have given up on him are within their rights, but I don't think that's fair yet. Worst case, I do think he can be a solid utility guy.
For 2013, definitely better.
Quote:
He will be 26 years old in May.
Thank you, vigilant readers! Yes, I saw that on my first pass through after publishing but there is something amiss on the back-end that is not allowing me to update any corrections. Just know that you have been heard and subtract one year off of the stated ages above.Quote:
I think you have Dozier's age wrong in the article. 2012 was his age-25 season (not 26), and in 2013 he will turn 26 (not 27).
Guys like Dozier and Florimon know perfectly well how to swing a bat, but they need to learn situational hitting, which is more complicated than simply knowing the situation.
First, you have to know the situation, which includes the score, the pitcher, how many outs, who's on base, where, etc.
Second, you have to know how to read physical cues from the pitcher, the fielders, etc.
Third, you have to understand how the first two things alter the likelihood of seeing particular pitches in particular locations.
Fourth, you have to learn to actively bluff the pitcher with false cues, like acting frustrated, muttering to yourself, waving the bat, or not, etc. Knowing all these things is how a batter applies pressure to the pitcher, which is facet of applying pressure in general to the opposition.
Fifth, you have to believe you can control the game. Very few players are able to internalize that attitude. The ones that do...control the game.
Best case scenario for Dozier is actually Scott Diamond. Limited high minors experience through age 24, terrible year at AAA/MLB as he turned 25, and rebounded as he turned 26. Although Diamond's success is generally regarded as a little odd/flukey, so that probably doesn't bode well for Dozier. Most guys who are good at 24 and bad at 25 don't fare quite so well at 26.
A full year at AAA and a callup in September and I guarantee you the general attitude towards his future would not be so negative. Only SUPER elite prospects should skip AAA (Sano).