Thread: Spend money just to spend money?

Here's my response to the "Why spend money to spend money crowd" - if the Twins don't feel it worthwhile to spend on their product - why should I?

And if more people start thinking like me, where does that leave this team's future?

Originally Posted by Steve Lein

Lets get the facts straight here. Before the 2012 season, May was a near-unanimous consensus #1 prospect, as a starter, for the Phillies organization. There have been only 5 games in his MiLB career where he didn't start (in 102 total), and 3 of those came in rookie ball after being drafted.

In his first taste of AA ball this year, he finally saw some struggles, posting a 4.87 ERA, BUT, he also struck out over a batter per inning, which to me, is a good sign for improvement moving forward given his track record of doing so. Take his stints at High-A ball for example. First taste, he struggled, walking almost a batter an inning to go along with striking out well over 1 batter an inning. When he repeated, he walked almost the same total number of batters, in over twice the amount of innings, and struck out more per inning than the year before (demonstrated improvement).

If he's destined to start the year repeating AA ball in the Eastern League, I'd expect that trend to continue, and he'll force his way to AAA midway through the year. But I'm also not going to be surprised if he starts the year with Rochester after pitching ~150 innings each of the last 2 years, as the Twins organization is seriously lacking pitching talent in the upper levels, even with Gibson and Hendriks.

At the risk of derailing this thread, its easy to have a respectable looking k/9 when you're facing 4 and a half batters per inning. His K%, on the other hand, plummeted from 32.5% in high A to 22.7% in AA. By comparison, Liam Hendriks struck out 21.7% of batters in the same league, at the same age, and he did it while walking a lot fewer, and still landed on his face in his first trip to the show, obviously. These guys aren't sure things, you don't pencil them into your plans until they bang the door down, or at least start knocking on it.

I would have no problem with the twins not spending money right now so they have more freed up for the next couple offseasons, but do the twins really strike you as the team that will take the 20-30 mil saved this year and reinvest that into the next season when all our young guys will be ready to go? Or save money for whenever we are "this close" to contention? I don't think so the patrol sits at 80-95 regardless of inflation, new ball park, or the possibility of a championship. I'm not usually a payroll guy but this is upsetting.

You don't have to spend money to spend money but the twins could be a contender for the division if they would "wisely" spend 100 mil a year.

As a member of the Half Full Club... Also a member of the See No Evil club... I've got the badges and I wear them on my sleeve proudly.

I have a hard time trying to condense my reasoning for why I'm in these clubs. Actually I have a hard time condensing directions to the bathroom that's right around the corner.

I guess the best way to condense my thoughts is this way: None of us have walked a mile in Terry Ryan's shoes.

We don't know what he has planned long range. We don't know what offers he has made... What conversations he has had.

We don't know what's on the big board in his office and I choose to trust.

TR's first go round was successful and I don't expect results in his second go round with a snap of his fingers. I'm trying to exercise patience.

Personally... I really want one of the upper level FA Pitchers and Marcum was the bottom of that tier and he's all that is left to hope for. I'm prepared for the seemingly obvious that I won't get Marcum on my team but I refuse to throw rocks because I don't know why. Is there a medical reason? The price just doesn't make sense? Is this just the wrong year for a large contract? Is every year the wrong year for a large contract? Maybe TR doesn't like him? Gardy?... Maybe Marcum has said... No Way I will consider the Twins? I don't know...

I simply won't throw rocks until someone from the inside says here is why? I continue to assume that TR is working on improving the team and I assume that he hasn't really showed any of us exactly what it is.

I can't remember if I've used the phrase. "Don't spend to just spend"... However... I do know that I don't care what the payroll comes in at. I trust that a plan is in place and that plan is in motion and if that means Kevin Correia... It means Kevin Correia. I'll watch him and hope he spots a couple of fastballs.

Here's to the Twins!!! Will any of you clink glasses?

Originally Posted by jokin

Heresy!

I have a feeling your ears will be stinging and you will soon be summarily added to numerous "Ignore" lists among the "Hear No Evil" crowd.

May was a starting pitching prospect with the Phillies, but you can find scouting reports that suggest he may end up being a MLB reliever.

Originally Posted by FrodaddyG

You aren't "apologising". You're coming up with empty excuses why your posts border on unreadable. The nationality of your "hard drive" has nothing to do with anything. It's a rambling stream of incoherent nonsense. Feel free to ignore that, and not bother taking your time to read your posts over and make things mildly coherent, and just start with the internet threats. I assure you that will go a long way toward making you seem more credible.

In the spanish alphabet there are extra letters, extra accsents (punctuations), when i use this symbol ( i am pressing the number nine.
not shifting up , but simply the number nine.once again let me say i apoligise....we are all twins fans
hope we get a good season soon , have a nice day ...

It's just not about win's and losses. It's also the quality and the entertainment value of their product. If the Twins can turn 9-1 games into 4-2 games they need too do it. Three years ago, the Fans purchased more tickets then 26 other Teams in baseball.The fan's were rewarded with St.Peter stating that they could not do it again. Then the payroll cuts started. The Fans pay to much money for the honor of watching a putrid product.

So nick Blackburn will miss the start of the season? wrist surgery? How did he hurt himself?

Originally Posted by Highabove

It's just not about win's and losses. It's also the quality and entertainment value of their product. If the Twins can turn 9-1 games into 4-2 games they need too do it. Three years ago, the Fans purchased more tickets then 26 other Teams in baseball.The fan's were rewarded with St.Peter stating that they could not do it again. Then the payroll cuts started. The Fans pay to much money for the honor of watching a putrid product.

Over 9 million fans in 3 years....A very nice fan base ,me thinks

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

Here's where I strongly disagree. While LONG TERM sustained success does rely on improving the player development process, there's no reason that, during a time like the Twins are in now with significant payroll space even within their self-imposed 50% of revenues business model, they couldn't go ahead and spend some of that money on veteran players that would make the product on the field closer to being at least MLB-average or, at worst, give the fans some indication that you've noticed the talent sucks and that you're willing to invest in at least trying to make it better.

As is, the Twins are essentially telling the fans, "we can't tell you the truth about how bad our team is going to be because you won't show up for games, so in the future, you should just understand that everything you hear coming from our mouths in the offseason is a lie. We're just hoping that the 20 year olds we have in Cedar Rapids this summer will turn out to be really good within two years or, failing that, that you fans keep believing the crap we're spewing every year until we stumble upon some success again."

The Twins could spend more money (I'm not disputing this). What I see the problem being if you assume the True Talent Level being between 65-70 wins. They would probably need to spend $50 Millions dollars more next year to be in the 75-80 Win Range. This assumes the cost of 1 WAR being in the 5 Million Dollar Range. They would never come close to making up this money at the Box Office. If they underachieve like the Marlins then they have a disaster. The closer to contention a team is the more valuable every win becomes.

The second point has to do with Marketing the Team. I realize they would have a hard time really telling the truth about the upcoming process. The reality is the team will lose the money of Casual Fans. The marketing probably has to deal with individual greatness (Mauer), potential stars (Hicks, Arcia) along with Opponents (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels)

I could only wish that I myself had the problem of spending money just to spend money.

Originally Posted by birdwatcher

May was a starting pitching prospect with the Phillies, but you can find scouting reports that suggest he may end up being a MLB reliever.

I strongly concur. Too many are automatically writing him into the rotation in 2014 when thus far he has only demonstrated mastery at High A. Trying to forever be a realist, it would be just short of winnng the lottery if the Twins hit big on Meyer, got a decent high-leverge RP role out of May, with Worley turning out to bring about 3/4ths of Brad Radke's lifetime WAR value over a Twins career (he's currently behind Radke at the same career-points).

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

But you could also likely get the same amount of below average innings from Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwod, Carl Pavano or even Livan Hernandez at a fraction of the cost of Correia. So isn't then paying Correia "spending money just to spend money"?

Livan threw 67 Innings with a FIP of 5.32 whose actual age is unknown. Pavano doesn't need to be revisited further. Millwood and Lowe were better pitchers in 2012 (I'm guessing they the Twins project these guys to decline to be worse then Kevin Correria). This can possibly be seen in their declining innings total. But you raise a good point- I'd have a hard time giving you a counter point.

Originally Posted by josecordoba

The second point has to do with Marketing the Team. I realize they would have a hard time really telling the truth about the upcoming process. The reality is the team will lose the money of Casual Fans. The marketing probably has to deal with individual greatness (Mauer), potential stars (Hicks, Arcia) along with Opponents (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels)

Along with the 2014 All Star Game! I think it's going to get old real fast at how many different ways they are going to tie in current ticket sales with "guaranteed preferred" All Star tickets.

Originally Posted by josecordoba

Livan threw 67 Innings with a FIP of 5.32 whose actual age is unknown. Pavano doesn't need to be revisited further. Millwood and Lowe were better pitchers in 2012 (I'm guessing they the Twins project these guys to decline to be worse then Kevin Correria). This can possibly be seen in their declining innings total. But you raise a good point- I'd have a hard time giving you a counter point.

In comparison to Correia, Millwood and Lowe could be had for a song (as a package!), for only a one year commitment.

Taking the Twins at their 50% formula, we have returned to the same revenues realized at the Dome.

Also notice that during their final two Dome Years, the Twins had some of the highest operating revenue in Major League Baseball.


The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com

The Business Of Baseball - Forbes.com

Originally Posted by josecordoba

The Twins could spend more money (I'm not disputing this). What I see the problem being if you assume the True Talent Level being between 65-70 wins. They would probably need to spend $50 Millions dollars more next year to be in the 75-80 Win Range. This assumes the cost of 1 WAR being in the 5 Million Dollar Range. They would never come close to making up this money at the Box Office. If they underachieve like the Marlins then they have a disaster. The closer to contention a team is the more valuable every win becomes.

I don't know where this $5 million per 1 WAR is coming from, but if you're using it to argue that it would take an extral $5 million in payroll for every win the Twins could get above the 65ish they've been getting, I just can't accept that premise. If that were the case, a team that starts with ZERO wins would have to spend $300 million just to REACH 60 wins! There's just no way the Twins would need to spend an additional $5 million for every win they would wish to realize.

EDIT TO ADD: Heck, now that I think about it, The Twins won a couple MORE games last year by cutting $15 million in payroll. Maybe TR thinks that you gain 1 WAR for every $5 million you CUT in payroll?

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

I don't know where this $5 million per 1 WAR is coming from, but if you're using it to argue that it would take an extral $5 million in payroll for every win the Twins could get above the 65ish they've been getting, I just can't accept that premise. If that were the case, a team that starts with ZERO wins would have to spend $300 million just to REACH 60 wins! There's just no way the Twins would need to spend an additional $5 million for every win they would wish to realize.

So we are going to win 16 games this year?
or is it that each team wins 50 and loses 50,
so that would equate 66 win season?

A team of replacement players would in theory win about 1/4 games (41 Games). So if a team wanted to only invest in minimum street free agents (This in theory) would be their win total on account of Random Variation. The Twins last year had 5.6 Pitching War (30th in Baseball) Along with 22.5 Hitting WAR. This makes their true talent level be somewhat in the neighborhood of 69 Wins. Teams tend to be lucky or unluckier in close games over the course of a season. An extreme variation would be someone like last year's Balitmore Orioles who tended to overperform in close games on a historic level winning 93 games in the process.

It's not accurate to say 5 Million Dollars is the cost for every win. A lot of this is due to Major League Contracts being cost-controlled for the First Six Years. The figure of about 5-6 Million Dollars Per Win is what it costs to upgrade a roster in Free Agency according to Dave Cameron. For example the Dodgers signed Zack Grienke for 24.5 Million Dollars Per Season (When he's currently around a 5 WAR Pitcher). You pay for the front-end of contracts then tend to be hurt on the back end due to age related decline.

Originally Posted by josecordoba

A team of replacement players would in theory win about 1/4 games (41 Games). So if a team wanted to only invest in minimum street free agents (This in theory) would be their win total on account of Random Variation. The Twins last year had 5.6 Pitching War (30th in Baseball) Along with 22.5 Hitting WAR. This makes their true talent level be somewhat in the neighborhood of 69 Wins. Teams tend to be lucky or unluckier in close games over the course of a season. An extreme variation would be someone like last year's Balitmore Orioles who tended to overperform in close games on a historic level winning 93 games in the process.


It's not accurate to say 5 Million Dollars is the cost for every win. A lot of this is due to Major League Contracts being cost-controlled for the First Six Years. The figure of about 5-6 Million Dollars Per Win is what it costs to upgrade a roster in Free Agency according to Dave Cameron. For example the Dodgers signed Zack Grienke for 24.5 Million Dollars Per Season (When he's currently around a 5 WAR Pitcher). You pay for the front-end of contracts then tend to be hurt on the back end due to age related decline.

This is accurate and well-stated.