Thread: Spend money just to spend money?

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Well said. Among the players the Twins are counting on to fill spots in their rotation, there are two guys coming off elbow scopes, one guy 9 months removed from TJ and one who got booted from an NL rotation on merit last year. Having Gibson and Hendriks prove they belong in Triple-A would be a good problem to have. Because if they're in the majors and show they don't belong, there ain't much to fall back on.

I've heard a lot of "Outside of Correia they've had a fine offseason" sentiment. That may be true. But the Correia signing is the crux of this whole thing. That was their marquee multi-year signing (no pun intended) and they went with one of the worst available guys on the market, a pitcher who is not noticeably better than much of what they already had.

Look, I truly am not a fan of the Correia signing. I have said many times that I thought it was a gross overpayment. But nobody here seems to be able to answer my question.

There has been lot of heat directed at the Twins FO for not acquiring better starting pitching. Can anybody tell me why this is solely the fault of the Twins FO? TR is getting blasted for not signing any one of a half dozen guys. Is it outside the realm of possibility that quality offers were made to some of these guys, but for any one of a hundred reasons they did not sign here?

I'm never against adding pitching depth but the cost is keeping Hendriks in the minors to begin the season and additionally to burn Gibson's innings in the minors. Over the course of the season it makes sense but does have consequences at the start of the year.

I never liked the Correia signing but I would still asserte the difference between him and the other pitchers that signed one and two year deals is pretty minimal - certainly not worth the outrage thag has been spilled on this site. McCarthy is better but is much hiher injury risk. The rest are really meh.

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

At 140 million the twins would still make a profit....

First, unless you are their accountant you don't know that.

2nd, Forbes disagrees with you. In 2011 they had an operating income of $16M which isn't net profit but let's assume that it is which would mean that they would've been in the red with a payroll of around $128M.

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

There has been lot of heat directed at the Twins FO for not acquiring better starting pitching. Can anybody tell me why this is solely the fault of the Twins FO? TR is getting blasted for not signing any one of a half dozen guys. Is it outside the realm of possibility that quality offers were made to some of these guys, but for any one of a hundred reasons they did not sign here?

Because it was more than a half dozen pitchers. I count 19 free agent pitchers, not including guys who had options picked up, that I prefer over Correia. That doesn't even count injury risk guys who have a glimmer of upside and would likely only require a minor league deal.

Originally Posted by johnnydakota

2011 payroll? and a claimed profit of 26.6 million dollars?

First the $26.6M was operating income not profit and it was for the 2010 season when the Twins still receive profit sharing revenue. The next year the operating income dropped to $16M.

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Look, I truly am not a fan of the Correia signing. I have said many times that I thought it was a gross overpayment. But nobody here seems to be able to answer my question.

There has been lot of heat directed at the Twins FO for not acquiring better starting pitching. Can anybody tell me why this is solely the fault of the Twins FO? TR is getting blasted for not signing any one of a half dozen guys. Is it outside the realm of possibility that quality offers were made to some of these guys, but for any one of a hundred reasons they did not sign here?

One day i looked back through different sites and found the Twins linked to about a dozen pitchers.
There is no knowledge of actual offers made. counteroffers and ultimately being rejected.
There is no knowledge of offers made and players said no thank you.
There is no knowledge of agents telling the Twins don't even bother me, my client is not coming.
There is a safe assumption that the Twins prefer a two year contract and players want longer.
There is a claim by Doogie that the Twins made only a few offers. Do not even bother to ask who they made offers to.

Originally Posted by drjim

but there should be a logical plan of who it is spent on and where they fit on the roster both this year and in the future.

I don't think so many of these guys have earned a spot in the plan yet. What has Hendriks, Correia, Pelfrey, Harden, Blackburn, Dozier, or Parmelee done to earn a roster spot in 2013, much less 2014 or 2015? You don't pencil guys into your plans based on what they did 2 years ago in the NL when they were healthy, what they did in AA, what they did in 2008-2009, or even what their paycheck is. You field the best team you can, certainly until you run out of cash, and you don't stop there if you don't have to, as long as there are better options available.

If the Twins do sign Marcum, and Marcum tanks, and one of Rich Harden / Pelfrey / Gibson / Hendriks is able to replace him for pennies on the dollar, that is still a win. There is no downside.

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Why would it be stretching it? Is it so hard to believe that the intention may have been to do as was said initially, but as the winter went on things did not go according to plan? Every beat reporter, every national pundit talked about how the Twins were in play with virtually every starting pitcher on the market. And yes, prices were considerably higher than expected for starting pitching, even the mediocre ones.

The Twins promised to add starting pitching which would improve the staff. By my calculations they did that (are you telling me that Worley, Corriea, and potentially Harden are not upgrades over what we had at the end of last year). It may not be perfect: they dramatically overpaid for Corriea and Harden is a risk, but they did improve.

I also hoped that they would be able to sign better quality starting pitching. I too believe that a couple of small breaks in their favor and this team could be in the hunt for a playoff spot. To say TR intentionally misled the Twins fans about upgrading the pitching, especially without hard facts to support it, is defamation and not very responsible.

As for the TR kool-aid, if you are saying that I believe TR is the right person for the Twins organization due to his strengths in scouting and payroll control, then keep filling my glass. There are very few people that could come into this organization and do the job the way the Pohlads want.

They also reported after each free agent signing that the Twins never made a formal offer on, well, any of them. Not even a low ball offer. We have been down this road before. We know what it means when the Twins are "kicking tires" on someone.

I seriously wonder if some of the people who post on this site either work for the Pohlads and/or Ryan, are related to the Pohlads and/or Ryan, or are friends with the Pohlads and/or Ryan. I'm not even joking.

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Every beat reporter, every national pundit talked about how the Twins were in play with virtually every starting pitcher on the market.

Huh?

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Based off of USA Today, the Twins payroll last year was somewhere around $74 million.

Uh, what? They were in the $95-100 million area.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

I don't think so many of these guys have earned a spot in the plan yet. What has Hendriks, Correia, Pelfrey, Harden, Blackburn, Dozier, or Parmelee done to earn a roster spot in 2013, much less 2014 or 2015? You don't pencil guys into your plans based on what they did 2 years ago in the NL when they were healthy, what they did in AA, what they did in 2008-2009, or even what their paycheck is. You field the best team you can, certainly until you run out of cash, and you don't stop there if you don't have to, as long as there are better options available.

If the Twins do sign Marcum, and Marcum tanks, and one of Rich Harden / Pelfrey / Gibson / Hendriks is able to replace him for pennies on the dollar, that is still a win. There is no downside.

The only one I'll disagree with is Parmelee, the guy bashed an 1,102 OPS in AAA last year, I think he's earned a fair chance to show he can do it with the big club.

Originally Posted by Willihammer

I You don't pencil guys into your plans based on what they did 2 years ago in the NL when they were healthy, what they did in AA, what they did in 2008-2009, or even what their paycheck is.

I wish more people would follow this advice in terms of the healthy pitchers they wanted signed.
They ignored the last couple years of service. In looking at what the pitcher potentially brings to the team you need to look pre injury to find the ceiling. What that person's new normal is you have to wait and find out. That is why Pelfrey got a one year deal. Look at Blackburn. He was never the same after the first time bone chips were removed.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I seriously wonder if some of the people who post on this site either work for the Pohlads and/or Ryan, are related to the Pohlads and/or Ryan, or are friends with the Pohlads and/or Ryan. I'm not even joking.

Because they're not entitled to your opinion?

Originally Posted by Jim Crikket

In the end, IF a GM can assemble a roster that will entertain fans and keep their interest all season long for $80 million, then there's no reason to just hand that same group of players an extra $20 million just so you can say you have a $100 million payroll.

But that's NOT the case with the Twins. Their $78.5 million team this summer seems unlikely to maintain fan interest, much less support. The result would then be even lower revenues... and, based on the Twins' historical approach, an even lower payroll the following year. The downward spiral would not be broken until either (a) the Twins decide to go against their prior trends and invest more in talent and show some faith in their fans that the resulting improved product would increase fan support; or (b) they get lucky and have a season where a bunch of minimum wage players win a lot of games. In which case, the increased revenues might... might... be used to keep some of those players in a Twins uniform beyond their arbitration years.

Thank you for stating this point, that I agree with whole heartedly, so eloquently. The Twins are in a very dangerous position of losing the casual fans like they did in ~1993. I am convinced that they need to partly spend their way out of this situation and behave a little bit like the Angels and the Strangers for a change.

Sometimes I wonder if TR, views spending little money on payroll as a win win. If the payroll is low, and the team produces, he's a genious. If the payroll is low and the team doesn't produce, well then that's okay because we expected it. It's risky to do what the Angels and Strangers are doing, but don't we as fans deserve a little bit of that too?

Originally Posted by Fire Dan Gladden

Based off of USA Today, the Twins payroll last year was somewhere around $74 million. Add in your claimed profit of $26.6 million (where did that come from by the way?), that would allow them to go up to about $100 million (assuming that the Pohlads would be willing to accept a break even year, which I doubt).

Even adding in the $20 million in additional TV revenue, tell me again how they would still make a profit with a $140 million dollar payroll?

2012 payroll of 74 million? where did you get your information? in 2011 the Twins had a payroll of about 113 million.As you said the Pohlads will not accept a break even season ,add in a profit of 26.6 million and an increase in tv revenue of 25 million and where do you sit?

Originally Posted by nokomismod

Thank you for stating this point, that I agree with whole heartedly, so eloquently. The Twins are in a very dangerous position of losing the casual fans like they did in ~1993. I am convinced that they need to partly spend their way out of this situation and behave a little bit like the Angels and the Strangers for a change.

Sometimes I wonder if TR, views spending little money on payroll as a win win. If the payroll is low, and the team produces, he's a genious. If the payroll is low and the team doesn't produce, well then that's okay because we expected it. It's risky to do what the Angels and Strangers are doing, but don't we as fans deserve a little bit of that too?

Not only that, but a couple 3 or even 4 year deal right now doesn't hurt us monetarily in the future. 80M payroll for 2013, 20M more off the books by 2014, and another 7M in 2015 (at the latest). By 2015, we're gonna have Mauer and a bunch of pre-arbitration starters with a couple 1st year arbitration starters thrown in there. Payroll will continue to drop.

Made no sense to not go and get TWO QUALITY pitchers, maybe a middle IF to improve this club. Doesn't hurt our ability to spend in the future, but does improve our team this year if only slightly and they'd always be a trade chip later.

We don't want our team to be a little better this year when there's no downside to making it a little better? I don't get that logic.

Originally Posted by ThePuck

I seriously wonder if some of the people who post on this site either work for the Pohlads and/or Ryan, are related to the Pohlads and/or Ryan, or are friends with the Pohlads and/or Ryan. I'm not even joking.

To me... It's not about that at all... It's about letting the guy do his job.

I have personally disagreed with all GM's on individual moves many many times.

I also notice that the posters on this site provide a wide variety of individual opinion on every subject and very rarely do we see a uniform opinion on any topics brought up.

So... I believe the odds of any GM being in lock step with everyone is pretty small and because of the impossibility of being in lock step with everyone... I believe the GM gets attacked unfairly.

I think Terry Ryan did a great job his first go round and am willing to see what happens in the 2nd go round.

I believe that the Twins have many employees beyond Terry Ryan... All of these employees have a full time job to make assessments and recommendations and they have information and direct contact that we don't have. None of us are employed full time to make assessments and recommendations. We do it as a hobby. I will tend to side with those who do it for a living.

It's about letting Terry Ryan and his staff do their jobs.

Originally Posted by Riverbrian

I will tend to side with those who do it for a living.

It's about letting Terry Ryan and his staff do their jobs.

That's fine, but do you apply that principle across the board? In other words, all politicians, all CEOs, all policemen, all bankers, etc...basically anyone who does something for a living that you don't?

Originally Posted by ThePuck

That's fine, but do you apply that principle across the board? In other words, all politicians, all CEOs, all policemen, all bankers, etc...basically anyone who does something for a living that you don't?

That's a good question... (thinking)... In most cases yes... Just using your examples...

Politicians... I don't trust any of them and stopped caring what they think a long time ago. I think the the process is corrupt and driven by special interest and not the people... But as I say that... I believe that the Politicians know what it takes to be a politician better than I... So Yeah to that... They know what it takes to get re-elected and what it takes to get re-elected is what frustrates me.

CEO's... Yeah... They have to consider big picture stuff that we haven't even thought of. They would have to have a better understanding of what it takes to run a major company than I.

Policemen... Most yeah... I don't get shot at doing my job.

Bankers... ?

The point you are trying to make... I assume... Is that there are people that are bad at their jobs.

I agree... If you have 30 GM's... Someone is probably the worst of the bunch. Are we saying Terry Ryan is on the bottom rung? I think he did a good job his first go round. He started his 2nd go round in a hole. I think it's too soon to assess his 2nd go round.

I'm willing to let him do his job.