Thread: Article: Under-Delivering

Originally Posted by ThePuck

Our payroll in 2007 was a 71.4M...regular inflation makes that just under 80M today. That's where our current payroll sits. And players salaries have gone up at a higher rate than standard inflation.

after the much publisised trade of Justin Morneau ,at mid season our payroll will be around 73 million for the season....

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

I'm not going to defend Mr. Ryan for not getting someone like Jackson at that price, but I'm good with not giving some of the contracts that have been given. And, I'm very hopeful for Liam Hendriks to take a step forward in 2013. I'm very excited to see how Kyle Gibson does as he breaks into the big leagues. Can Scott Diamond come close to duplicating his 2012 season? What do the Twins really have in Alex Meyer and Trevor May? How quickly can some of those college relievers get up here? Will Anthony Slama get a chance? There are reasons for optimism, and that's not even talking about the likes of Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee and others. I certainly wouldn't give up on Brian Dozier at this point.

I don't think the Twins were legitimately going to compete in 2013 regardless. Detroit is too good. But I am very excited about the direction of the team. And frankly, young, talented players are much more valuable than just spending money to spend money.

Sometimes I feel like a few people would be happier if the Twins would have given Correia 2 years and $50 million because then the payroll would be back at $100 million and "at least the Pohlad's won't pocket it."

So you think having a veteran arm (sanchez, dempster) to show the young guys and to act as a mentor is a bad thing?
Would have signing Maricer Izturis hurt the twins? Or added to the middle infield?
Do you prefer to watch a battle between florimon and escobar, with the loser being a part timer, or would you want to have a pair of veterans to lift the bar for the kids to jump over?

Following this discussion on twitter and here I think Nick has been dead on while it's frustrating to see Mackey and others apologize and make excuses.

You can both go after some free agents and rebuild for 2014. Heck, the right free agents will help you in 2014 even if you had to offer them 2 year deals. It's not like the pitching picture is going to have 5 rotation spots solved by then is it? 2-3, four if we're lucky but of Worley, Gibson, May, Meyer, Hendricks, not all of them are going to pan out.

The argument that people want to spend money just to spend money is as ridiculous as low payroll = success. You can develop from within and sign FA and *gasp* have a better team and, as teams proved last season you can spend or not and still have a good team.

Did anyone notice that the Nationals' payroll is over $100M this upcoming season, btw? Are people like Phil Mackey going to argue that they'll be worse because of it and shouldn't have spent it? Seriously?

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Then you are missing the point. It's not about spending to spend. It's about spending to make the team better.

No, I get and understand your point, but I think way too many people look at the salary number as if salary alone is what the team needs to compete. Spending just to spend makes no sense. And, younger players cost less by nature. That's just how it is.

My main comeback to this, and again I don't really even disagree, but I think that the Twins are going to finish 4th or 5th no matter who they would have added. I also think that they are smart enough to know that 2015 is at best when they will be contending in September again. They have to make decisions on some people and this is the year to do that. They need to know what they can count on from guys like Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Parmelee, Joe Benson, Liam Hendriks, Casey Fien, Cole De Vries, Tyler Robertson, Anthony Slama, and some others. The only way to find out is to play them. My assumption is that a few of them will make positive strides in 2013 and show that they can be relied upon. Some of them will flame out and they'll know that they need to find someone else. But there isn't a player on that list that doesn't deserve an opportunity. Add in that at some point, Kyle Gibson, Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia and others will continue to be coming up.

Again, I'll agree. I would rather they would have spent their money on Blanton than Correia and Lannan than Pelfrey. That would have made about a $2 million change. I would have been fine with them giving big money to Sanchez or Jackson, but they weren't going to come here. We don't know the story on Marcum, but he is hurt a lot and has lost velocity. I mean, it's not like there was a sure-thing on the market.

I'm disappointed in what it looks like 2013 will be, and I fully expect the young guys to have their ups and downs into 2014 and 2015 when they'll add more of those 2012 college flame-throwers, and guys like Rosario, Sano, Wimmers, who will also have struggles.

I just have a hard time getting incredibly upset about anything that I have absolutely no ability to alter.

Originally Posted by Alex

You can both go after some free agents and rebuild for 2014. Heck, the right free agents will help you in 2014 even if you had to offer them 2 year deals.

My impression (has anyone collected the status so far to verify?) is that the pitchers better than what the Twins have picked up have been demanding and getting 3 or more years. The guess would be that the guys not yet signed (Marcum, Saunders) still are holding out for 3.

I believe TR sees a huge difference in the risk factor when you go to 3 years (to say nothing of the 4+ required to land a true front-liner). If you accept risk in year 3, it is because of some expected benefit in year 1. Despite public pronouncements, it looks like 2013 is written off, leading to very little possible benefit to balance the risk, and so the front office is unwilling to take on any significant 2015 risk to help in 2013; and so far the 2-year contract offers aren't panning out.

I really thought going into the off-season that it should be possible to gear up for 2015 via trades like we have seen, plus sign some good stop-gaps to keep 2013-14 competitive. Either TR has been too cautious, or this model for sustaining competitiveness year-in/year-out is not supportable.

Originally Posted by nicksaviking

It's probably not true, but I half fear that Ryan actually believes that Correia and Pelfrey are on par with the other mid-tier pitchers and he got a bargain signing them. That lack of judgment would actually be more concerning than his inactivity.

Yes, I think this is actually greater cause for fear than just the usual, "Twins are being cheap," thing and it goes deeper than Correia. I'm concerned that Ryan and the Twins are just not on par with the rest of the league when it comes to accurately identifying starting pitching talent, whether in schoolboys or veteran MLB pitchers.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

Spending just to spend makes no sense.

It's not about spending just to spend. The Twins had some of the worst pitching in baseball last year and spending money is the only way to improve that unit in the short-term without forfeiting assets in a trade.

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

I just have a hard time getting incredibly upset about anything that I have absolutely no ability to alter.

I wouldn't say I'm "incredibly upset," but as a fan of the team and a person who spends considerable money at the ballpark every year, I am frustrated. I think all fans should feel the same way. We're owed better than this, especially after the last two years.

I understand that you're excited to see some new prospects break in over the next couple years, and I am too. But I'd sure like to see them surrounded by some better veterans. Filling your roster with low-cost young players doesn't do a whole lot of good if you're not going to spend the extra money to fill needs that can't be addressed by your farm system.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

My impression (has anyone collected the status so far to verify?) is that the pitchers better than what the Twins have picked up have been demanding and getting 3 or more years. The guess would be that the guys not yet signed (Marcum, Saunders) still are holding out for 3.

I believe TR sees a huge difference in the risk factor when you go to 3 years (to say nothing of the 4+ required to land a true front-liner). If you accept risk in year 3, it is because of some expected benefit in year 1. Despite public pronouncements, it looks like 2013 is written off, leading to very little possible benefit to balance the risk, and so the front office is unwilling to take on any significant 2015 risk to help in 2013; and so far the 2-year contract offers aren't panning out.

I really thought going into the off-season that it should be possible to gear up for 2015 via trades like we have seen, plus sign some good stop-gaps to keep 2013-14 competitive. Either TR has been too cautious, or this model for sustaining competitiveness year-in/year-out is not supportable.

Blanton, McCarthy and Myers all got two year deals and they are better pitchers than Correia. I also don't see how a three year deal is risky any longer considering the Twins have shown they can function with a $100M+ payroll but now will operate at $80M- over the next half decade at least.

The only risk would be taking a 25-man roster spot, though if Ryan isn't concerned with Correia taking a spot over the next two years (who is highly likely to be a bust and waste a roster spot) why would 3-4 years for a superior pitcher concern him? Injuries shouldn't be a concern, they can be put on the DL and that roster spot opens back up.

Seth, I am not angry, I am now indifferent to next year....that is worse for the Twins...as I bet more and more fans are feeling this way, and ticket sales will drop.

Originally Posted by ashburyjohn

My impression (has anyone collected the status so far to verify?) is that the pitchers better than what the Twins have picked up have been demanding and getting 3 or more years. The guess would be that the guys not yet signed (Marcum, Saunders) still are holding out for 3.

I believe TR sees a huge difference in the risk factor when you go to 3 years (to say nothing of the 4+ required to land a true front-liner). If you accept risk in year 3, it is because of some expected benefit in year 1. Despite public pronouncements, it looks like 2013 is written off, leading to very little possible benefit to balance the risk, and so the front office is unwilling to take on any significant 2015 risk to help in 2013; and so far the 2-year contract offers aren't panning out.

I quite agree with this viewpoint, I think the 3 year+ deals has been de regueur this off season for mid to front line starters and it's effected some initial decisions. With year 1 being optimistically at best a 4th place finish why go 3? Wait until next year (maybe even 2015) and consider 3 year deals at that point, closer to when the team is potentially going to start heading in the right direction. At least we then stand some chance of them being here in the midst of something with potential.

This isn't to excuse the FO for this off season, more could have been done to help the team be more competitive than it appears it's going to be, without having to go big before they wanted to.

Originally Posted by old nurse

I guess personal insults are not beneath military personnel.

It could have been worse. He could have said MSNBC.

Originally Posted by old nurse

I got a note from John. If you call questioning your claim on the Twins should have signed somebody after the 2010 season an insult, so be it. You never answered the question.

my phone didnt ring....

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

It's not about spending just to spend. The Twins had some of the worst pitching in baseball last year and spending money is the only way to improve that unit in the short-term without forfeiting assets in a trade.
.

If they would have picked up the option on Baker, would you have complained they were spending money foolishly? If they traded a box of peanuts to pick up Haren's contract at the time would you have said that was overpriced? . Spending money is the only way to fix a short term problem, but to get someone here for purely monetary reasons you would have to blow them out of the water with an offer. Is it really wise to spend up to 10 million per year on a Blanton or McCarthy. Almost as much for a Feldman or Meyers. So you criticize the Twins for spending on Mauer. Yet you criticize the Twins for not signing pitchers when it would clearly be contracts far more than their value.

Haren may have been worth the risk if they could assess why his drop in velocity occurred last year. Far too many pitcher in year 2 are injured. He is too young to be declining due to age

Originally Posted by lightfoot789

I am sorry - Mid Market Team
The point is that the Twins are usually a decent team in the AL central and fans can't handle a drought without wanting the GM or Coaches head. I believe that management knows what it is doing and I believe that they want a winning product on the field as much as the fans. I also believe that they probably have better insight on free agents than we do and have made the right inquiires. There might be a reason Marcum is still on the market? You don't know!!! Have some faith and trust that things will get better. Your minor league system is already one of the top 6 in the MLB. Vast improvement. Give TR a break and ride the train for a while without pretending you know more than the conductor. The Twins are on the verge of some great teams with complete control of those players for some time. FAITH PEOPLE

You'll be hard-pressed to find anyone around here complaining about how JR has handled the minor league system since his return.

On the other hand, there's another facet to a MLB franchise... The one that actually takes the field here in Minnesota. Nobody here is saying that the Twins need to start trading off minor leaguers to fill these holes. Nobody here is saying that the front office should sacrifice the future by trading for today (in fact, there are calls for the exact opposite). We're saying that the team should spend some of the money given to them when taxpayers financed Target Field.

It's not an unreasonable request. Hell, it should be an expectation. The people of Minnesota threw hundreds of millions of dollars at the Twins to make them competitive in the modern market. Asking the Twins to hold up their side of the bargain by spending a very reasonable amount of money to acquire free agents so we don't have to suffer another 65 win season has nothing to do with faith in the future and has everything to do with expecting the team to give back something in return for the enormous gift given them by the taxpayers of Minnesota.

Wouldn't it be wise to save $20+ million this year, so that you can over spend next year on quality free agents to go along with young rising talent in your system. That plend woud make for a more exciting and promising season in 2014. More than likely, you will have to over spend on Free Agents to get them to MN. Who was the last highly sort after free agent to come to MN? Great city, but not a free agent hot bed. Sign 1 to 3 top end guys next year with the money you save this year. Pray that 1 or 2 of the project signees (Pitchers) this year, pans out. Then we can ride that 6 Man Rotation all the way to wildcard .
Diamond 12-9 / 3.54 era / 173 innings / 1.243 whip
Pelfrey 2.29 era before season ending injury / 1.424 whip
Gipson - let's see how spring training goes?
Worley 6-9 / 4.2 era / 133 innings (11-3 in 2011) / 1.511 whipHaren 12-13 / 4.33 era / 176 innings (16-10 with 3.17 in 2011) / 1.291 whip
Corriea 12-11 / 4.21 era / 171 innings (not awful & winning record) / 1.298 whip
If healthy - these are guys who can keep you in every game and eat up innings every outing.

Why are these guys worth more and worth the risk at their asking price?
Marcum was 7-4 / 3.71 era / 124 innings & was injured for 2nd time in 4 years / 1.266 whip
Blanton 10-13 / 4.71 era / 191 innings / 1.262 whip
McCarthy 8-6 / 3.24 era / 111 innings & was injured / 1.252 whip

lightfoot, if anyone thought that was the plan, we'd be happier than we are now, but there is zero evidence that is the plan. I do NOT for 1 second believe you need to "overspend" to get a FA to come here. I think you have to spend the market price, just like every other team.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

lightfoot, if anyone thought that was the plan, we'd be happier than we are now, but there is zero evidence that is the plan. I do NOT for 1 second believe you need to "overspend" to get a FA to come here. I think you have to spend the market price, just like every other team.

There is actually evidence... Evidence that the Twins will not spend more or less in following seasons based on the surplus/deficit of earlier seasons. They've said it themselves.

Originally Posted by old nurse

How do you know the offers were not competitive? We know for sure they were not accepted.

How do you know there were competitive offers? Hell, how do you know there were any offers at all?


There hasn't been even the faintest whiff of a rumor surrounding any competitive offers to any quality free agents.

Originally Posted by old nurse

It became apparent a long time ago that no first or second tier healthy free agent would sign here..

You complain about being insulted, but quite frankly, you're either trolling or being incredibly dense intentionally. You have littered this board with criticisms akin to "well how do you know they didn't offer to anyone?" and then in this thread and the Mackey thread you take remarks by Ryan and some kind of vague "analysis" and posit that the Twins really did make offers and were rejected. You are doing the same thing you have been peppering other posts with for days!

Every post is some pathetic reach for a defense that isn't even remotely rational. Again, Nick is 100% right. He's not bashing Terry Ryan as a GM. He's not calling the entire offseason a disaster. He's not calling for Ryan's head. He's not saying they should have spent 100M on Jackson. He's saying what I've been saying for days: Ryan made explicit promises of what he'd do. Regardless of what happened behind the scenes - he unequivocally failed to meet those promises. His feet deserved to be held to the fire on that. It's not that hard. I don't see how there is any room for any rational person to disagree with that.

Personally, I'd like an answer though. Because as a paying customer, I want to know why payroll was slashed and all this competitive in 2013 talk was scrapped. My gut tells me that Terry believed, quite naively and idiotically, that he could get pitchers to sign here for less than 4 years. And balked when they said their expectations. I don't know for sure and there could be many other explanations, but as fans that care - we damn sure can grill him for answers on it. Your inane defense attempts are just annoying and seem like an incessant need to troll.