Thread: Article: Pitching Central

I will never understand the crowd that says if you cannot fix it all, you should not fix any of it. The only thing not spending money this year does is decrease attendance. Terry Ryan is the same guy he always has been. There is zero evidence otherwise.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

I will never understand the crowd that says if you cannot fix it all, you should not fix any of it. The only thing not spending money this year does is decrease attendance. Terry Ryan is the same guy he always has been. There is zero evidence otherwise.

Like I said, Worley, Meyer and May are a start in the right direction. I just don't buy that shooting for 76 wins instead of 73 is going to have that big an affect on attendance one way or the other. Even if we gutted the farm system to get Shields, it wouldn't have made that big a difference.

Not one person said to trade prospects ....nice strawman. They have money. They are not spending it. And again, you make the argument not to improve the team at all, unless they ac win it all. Had they replaced their worst 60 starts with two league average or better pitchers, the team is more than 3 games better. Signing a legit pitcher or two is not only about this year.

I mean which of these pitchers should we have signed? And really how many more wins does that player provide over Correa/Pelfry/Harden?

I don't really disagree with Nick's premise here, but this list is a little deceptive by including teams re-signing their own guy. I mean, the ChiSox bringing back Peavy didn't ADD anything to their club or the division; that's a status quo move. A good one for them to be sure, but if the idea is to look at how the Twins have improved their pitching in comparison to the other teams, keeping in the returning free agents distorts the picture somewhat.

One of the Twins biggest moves to improve the rotation is addition by subtraction. That's important too, but it's hard to get excited about. But if you pull Sanchez & Peavy off this list, you get a better picture don't you think? (Sanchez is arguable since he didn't spend a full season in Detroit)

I would very much like the Twins to sign Marcum, who would make this list look better for the Twins.

I mean which of these pitchers should we have signed? And really how many more wins does that player provide over Correa/Pelfry/Harden?

That's an interesting question. If you average out Anibal Sanchez's last three years and compare them to Kevin Correia's last three years, Sanchez averages 3.1 WAR and 30 more innings pitched. Correia averages -0.7 WAR and 30 fewer innings pitched. Sanchez is paid $16 million per year, Correia an average of $5 million per year.

I know better than to make a comment on this, but I figured I'd throw it out there.

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Not one person said to trade prospects ....nice strawman. They have money. They are not spending it. And again, you make the argument not to improve the team at all, unless they ac win it all. Had they replaced their worst 60 starts with two league average or better pitchers, the team is more than 3 games better. Signing a legit pitcher or two is not only about this year.

You could shave 100 runs allowed off last year's staff and still have a mediocre team. And the amount of attendance you get if you're in third place isn't really that much greater than what you get in fifth, just ask the mid-90s Twins. It's going to take more than Marcum to turn around the apathy the Twins are getting. And I believe the "strawman" point is that it's going to take more than even Shields.

So we've gone from big talk of being a .500+ team next year with things going right to defending an offseason that was pretty much 100% rebuilding? Some of you have to get off the defense of the team a little bit here. One can criticize and still be a supportive fan.

This team scrooged on a couple players (Baker's option year, Marcum thus far, even Blanton) and as a result this team is clearly spinning the wheels. I'll still pay attention, but it's fair to criticize a team that was forward in declaring it's intent to improve that did the exact opposite with significant financial room to play with.

Good post, Nick. Your list quantifies what we've been reading, feeling, hearing. The competition in the Central Division have all improved their stable of starting pitchers. The Twin's cellar dwelling staff roster lags behind. The $30 million payroll savings is the other piece. Thanks for connecting the dots.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins. I don't find KC's moves at all enviable.

As charger suggests, the article is totally weighted with the premise that the Twins some how missed the boat...

The twins did miss the boat and very soon ownership and the fronty office will be claiming with poor attendance they can not compete for any free agents...yes it is very apperent that Ryan is once again looking for an end of the year bonus for cutting payroll, If jipppy Pohlad had come out and said , look we are in a rebuilding stage and we are cutting ticket prices 20%, I would have been happy to see joe and justin traded to texas and willingham being traded to seattle.But what did we get spoon fed?
Money isnt an issue we have never turned down any figure our general asked for...= We just fire our general or reasign them if they want to spend money, in my opinion , Terry ryan is out of his eliment , and needs to return to being a cross checking scout.Ryan was very good at this job ,and the game has out grown him since (or before in my opinion) he stepped down the last time.If we get lucky this year it is posible to see an improvement to 75 win season , but if we continue with no luck, i can see 103 loss season on the horizion for OUR twins...yes they belong to us, we have cheered for them ,cried for them and in my case i was beat with a leather shaving strap because i jumped up and down on the couch when rod stole home, we have paid for them in finacing there new shiny stadium and in having an average 3 million + fans since target field has opened...ownership has failed us and they just dont care....

Originally Posted by mike wants wins

Not one person said to trade prospects ....nice strawman. They have money. They are not spending it. And again, you make the argument not to improve the team at all, unless they ac win it all. Had they replaced their worst 60 starts with two league average or better pitchers, the team is more than 3 games better. Signing a legit pitcher or two is not only about this year.

Liriano 3-10 and Blackburn 5-9 made the second and third most starts for the Twins. Middle of the pack on the list above are Guthrie and Santana. 6-10, 9-13 respectively. 41 starts to 63. So add Devries 5-5 and 17 starts and you have 3 more wins. Woo hoo.

Originally Posted by 70charger

That's an interesting question. If you average out Anibal Sanchez's last three years and compare them to Kevin Correia's last three years, Sanchez averages 3.1 WAR and 30 more innings pitched. Correia averages -0.7 WAR and 30 fewer innings pitched. Sanchez is paid $16 million per year, Correia an average of $5 million per year.

I know better than to make a comment on this, but I figured I'd throw it out there.

The theoretical question then would be how many more million per year would have it took to get a Sanchez? More than likely well over 2 million as you can't say Detroit wouldn't have gone higher.

Although I'm more for the long-term view, I would have had no problem with them giving Jackson four years or Sanchez five years. I think they will develop in 2013 and hopefully start that move up toward contending in 2014 and contend in 2015... Those younger free agent types will still be a big part of that. I wouldn't be in favor of giving big money to someone like Ryan Dempster since he'd older and wouldn't be around for the good times. His value would be in a potential trade. (my opinions, of course)

Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in 2014 or 2015's versions of Jackson and Sanchez?

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

I mean which of these pitchers should we have signed? And really how many more wins does that player provide over Correa/Pelfry/Harden?

Look at all the people that answered these questions! I think it tells us something.

Originally Posted by oldnurse

Liriano 3-10 and Blackburn 5-9 made the second and third most starts for the Twins. Middle of the pack on the list above are Guthrie and Santana. 6-10, 9-13 respectively. 41 starts to 63. So add Devries 5-5 and 17 starts and you have 3 more wins. Woo hoo.

Are you being serious? Using W/L record as a literal translation for how much a pitcher adds? That's... wow.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in 2014 or 2015's versions of Jackson and Sanchez?

You think the Twins are going to invest in free agent pitching next year, when prices only continue to inflate as the new TV revenue actually hits? Most of the usual big-market suspects like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Phillies have actually been pretty quiet this offseason. If the Twins are unwilling to "overpay" for quality talent right now, just wait until next winter. There's a good chance many of these goofy contracts will look downright reasonable in a year.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

Look at all the people that answered these questions! I think it tells us something.

It tells us that people don't want to get into these silly breakdowns of how many theoretical wins a player adds. It misses the point. As I said in the post, there's a difference between contending and making an effort to compete. I don't think many expect the former but we should all absolutely expect the latter, and we haven't gotten it. I'm all for the rebuilding approach but putting such a minimal effort into getting a decent product on the field in the meantime is inexcusable.

The main problem with giving Edwin Jackson a large contract over 4 years is that he just really isn't that good. Career 4.40 ERA (half of which were in the NL) 4.10 ERA over the past 3 years (mostly spent in the NL)

I mean, he would be nice to have in the rotation, but in reality the dude is no better then a #4 for a competitive team. I'd rather the Twins save that money for 2014 for a pitcher who actually has the potential to be a front end guy instead of a back end rotation guy.

I am dissapointed they didn't take a larger run at Sancez though....but he didn't exactly come cheap anyways.

I still maintain Marcum is the smart option at this point IF he can stay healthy he has a really nice chance to out preform both of Sanchez and Jackson for a much cheaper deal (see: 2 years/14-18 mil)

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

As I said in the post, there's a difference between contending and making an effort to compete. I don't think many expect the former but we should all absolutely expect the latter, and we haven't gotten it. I'm all for the rebuilding approach but putting such a minimal effort into getting a decent product on the field in the meantime is inexcusable.

The off-season isn't close to being over dude, plenty of quality players still remain on the FA and trade markets. If we roll into pitchers and catchers reporting and this is the roster we have, I will agree. Until then I am going to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt, since for the most part in his time as a GM he has done a pretty damn good job!

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Are you being serious? Using W/L record as a literal translation for how much a pitcher adds? That's... wow.


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No I wasn't. But WAR does not predict team success either. It tells you have added a good player. The result of good play may leads to wins, but it takes a whole team to do that. He said to add two players with a WAR of 3 would lead to wins. See the 2009 KC Royals. Winners of 65 games and had two pitchers of high WAR, Grienke and Bannister. The problem in trying to add 2 pitchers with WAR above 3 is that there are not that many players who are consistently above three. The only way the Twins could have added two of them is if two of Dempster, Sanchez, Jackson, or Haren had the same agent and the Twins kidnapped him. Add quality, or add potential for quality as they have done. The problem with a team with so many question marks at this time is to develop high quality players or develop the quality from what others did not see. That takes time. When you have only a couple needs, it is easier to fill.

You said "There's a good chance many of these goofy contracts will look downright reasonable in a year." So $5M. for Correia will be a bargain? (No no, not serious)

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

But the point of Nick's post is that, he thinks that along with thinking long-term, enough care needs to be given to 2013 to maintain a fan base. Frankly, I won't (and most of you who come to sites like this) miss a game on TV regardless of if they win 100 or lose 110, but I know there are a lot of fair-weather fans out there and the Twins are in jeopardy of losing them.

Fair weather fans will jump ship at the earliest convenience. They will also come back at the earliest convenience. I do not worry about them. Long term fans that can't wheather low points are not true long term fans.