Thread: Article: Pitching Central

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

There is a difference between mediocre and bad. Correia has a track record that includes neither sustained durability nor success. I'd feel a lot more comfortable slotting any of the guys you mentioned into the rotation.

Correa did not sign a contract equal to anyone else on your list but Pelfry. There were other rotation/bullpen arms that received equall money or better that signed in other divisions.
What is the definition of the term success? Shields and Peavey you would call successful. What makes the others in your definition a success other than signing with a team other than the Twins. Not more talented, more successful.

If the Twins weren't in love with any better free agent pitchers, and if they didn't have a chance to make a trade for more immediate rotation help, I could be a bit more forgiving if the extra $15-20 million they're sitting on was spent on some middle infield help.

We'll never know for sure but my suspicion is that the word came down from the Pohlads to slash payroll again this year.

This strikes me as an agenda-driven article. What has Jeremy Guthrie done to put him above Vance Worley at 34 years old? How do you put Trevor Bauer up there when he's pitched like 3 innings in the majors? And if Bauer's way up there, why ignore Meyer and May? Wade Davis? Maybe if you really like relievers. Hell, let's put Glen Perkins back in the rotation and call it a win. And if we can rank Wade Davis that high, why not Rich Harden? He's probably a reliever too.

Seems like you started with the premise that the Twins are not up to par, and then everything you offered as evidence was designed to prove it, including some highly suspect rankings. Granted, I'm not expecting much out of the Twins in 2013, but it has far more to do with their relative lack of talent (as seen in 2012) than it does with any lack of moves in the offseason. I'm not expecting much out of the rest of the Central either - not even with this relatively ragtag group of signings. Only the top few are worth much, but you can't seriously be telling me you'd have made the kind of trade the Royals did to get Shields. Not worth it. Not one bit.

Guthrie is not good at all but he is better than Correia and is going to provide 180-210 innings of 4.5 ERA. Worley is clearly better than that, though.

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins. I don't find KC's moves at all enviable.

As charger suggests, the article is totally weighted with the premise that the Twins some how missed the boat...

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Guthrie is not good at all but he is better than Correia and is going to provide 180-210 innings of 4.5 ERA. Worley is clearly better than that, though.

3/25 contract versus 2/10 Guthrie ought to be better than Correia. Guthrie chose to resign because he had good luck in KC.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins

You are very correct.

Originally Posted by PseudoSABR

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins. I don't find KC's moves at all enviable.

As charger suggests, the article is totally weighted with the premise that the Twins some how missed the boat...

Why shouldn't the Twins pick up a decent pitcher on the free agent market? I don't get the reasoning... It's not as if they're going to save that money for 2014 and beyond (at which point their payroll is going to be stupid-low anyway). Why not sign a guy for 2-3 years? What is the real harm in doing that? I haven't seen anybody here advocating the front office to trade away prospects for a Shields-type pitcher but with an excess of money, why shouldn't Ryan spend a little to make the team look slightly less awful for 2013?

Nick's right in saying that, for 2013, it hasn't been a great offseason. They were a bottom half offense in 2012 and took away Span and Revere and haven't added anyone. Pitching-wise, they've added Worley, which is nice, and we'll see how he heals and how he adjusts to the AL. But as of right now, I think that the 2013 season outlook looks worse than 2012's. Of course, lots of things could happen, like Morneau and Willingham could each hit 40 homers and Plouffe could suddenly hit 30, and Hicks or whoever plays CF could be rookie of the year, and Parmelee is better than expected, and Correia and Pelfrey can be close to league average, and Scott Diamond's Cinderella season lasts another and some other guys could step up. Or, the opposite could happen. We don't know.

I do think that, aside from the Correia signing, I love the direction that I see the Twins going. Loved the two trades for the long-term. I do eagerly anticipate a 2015 rotation of Gibson, Hendriks, Diamond, Worley, Meyer and May (OK, five of them). I think there is something to be excited about. And, along with Mauer, there are some exciting bats coming too.

But the point of Nick's post is that, he thinks that along with thinking long-term, enough care needs to be given to 2013 to maintain a fan base. Frankly, I won't (and most of you who come to sites like this) miss a game on TV regardless of if they win 100 or lose 110, but I know there are a lot of fair-weather fans out there and the Twins are in jeopardy of losing them.

Originally Posted by Brock Beauchamp

Why shouldn't the Twins pick up a decent pitcher on the free agent market? I don't get the reasoning... It's not as if they're going to save that money for 2014 and beyond (at which point their payroll is going to be stupid-low anyway). Why not sign a guy for 2-3 years? What is the real harm in doing that? I haven't seen anybody here advocating the front office to trade away prospects for a Shields-type pitcher but with an excess of money, why shouldn't Ryan spend a little to make the team look slightly less awful for 2013?

How do you know that? Is there some inside information you have that I'm not privy to?

Originally Posted by charger70

This strikes me as an agenda-driven article. What has Jeremy Guthrie done to put him above Vance Worley at 34 years old? How do you put Trevor Bauer up there when he's pitched like 3 innings in the majors? And if Bauer's way up there, why ignore Meyer and May? Wade Davis? Maybe if you really like relievers. Hell, let's put Glen Perkins back in the rotation and call it a win. And if we can rank Wade Davis that high, why not Rich Harden? He's probably a reliever too.

I ranked the players based on accomplishment, or in Bauer's case I ranked him high because he's one of the game's elite pitching prospects. Sorry, Meyer and May just aren't at that level and are unlikely to figure into the 2013 picture significantly. Guthrie has been a workhorse and has survived in the AL East. Davis has more of an MLB track record than Worley and has survived in the AL East. Santana has been very good in two of the last three years and has averaged 209 innings during that span.

Worley has a chance to be a solid pitcher, but he hasn't thrown 140 innings in an MLB season and he's coming off a pretty mediocre campaign in the NL that ended with elbow surgery. I don't think he's significantly different than many of the guys I placed above him but he just hasn't done enough yet. I wouldn't argue if you want to move him up a spot or two but the point is that, as the premier pitching acquisitioin of the offseason, he just doesn't stack up very well against the rest of the division.

Originally Posted by Shane Wahl

Guthrie is not good at all but he is better than Correia and is going to provide 180-210 innings of 4.5 ERA. Worley is clearly better than that, though.

Let's see Worley actually throw 180 innings at any level before we make that assumption.

Originally Posted by Pseudofool

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins.

I disagree wholeheartedly. I think this is exactly the time to do it. They lack even mid-tier caliber pitching and they have plenty of extra money this year and next. Just because you're not realistically contending for a championship doesn't mean you shouldn't try and put a respectable product on the field.

Originally Posted by 70charger

How do you know that? Is there some inside information you have that I'm not privy to?

What has ever given an indication that the Twins carry over payroll savings from previous years into the following seasons?

Originally Posted by Seth Stohs

But the point of Nick's post is that, he thinks that along with thinking long-term, enough care needs to be given to 2013 to maintain a fan base. Frankly, I won't (and most of you who come to sites like this) miss a game on TV regardless of if they win 100 or lose 110, but I know there are a lot of fair-weather fans out there and the Twins are in jeopardy of losing them.

I'm sure I'll watch all the games too, but if they're out of it by the end of May again I'll probably get out to Target Field about half as many times as I might have otherwise. As much as I love the summer ballpark experience, it's tough to get amped up to go see a last-place team get throttled, and it's also tough to justify forking over a bunch of money to an organization that doesn't seem all that interested in trying to promptly turn around an abhorrent two-year stretch. The message being sent to fans by scraping the bargain bin for pitching and reverting nearly to Metrodome payroll levels is insulting.

Originally Posted by 70charger

How do you know that? Is there some inside information you have that I'm not privy to?

The Twins brass has been on record in that past that budget "saved" in one year will not be rolled forward to future years.

Originally Posted by snepp

The Twins brass has been on record in that past that budget "saved" in one year will not be rolled forward to future years.

Why would they do that? They are very loyal to their fan base!!! ........................

I don't understand the idea of not signing a good pitcher to three years right now. One such pitcher makes the rotation look dramatically better in 2013, the team should be better in 2014 and could be great by 2015 . . . and quality pitching would be a part of that, and the payroll is going to drop significantly starting next year.

Spending money on quality pitching can always lead to deadline trades for prospects. Maybe Marcum wants a one-year deal to improve his chances for a bigger contract after next season. The Twins have $10 million devoted to Blackburn and Correia, for the love of god. Why not spend $10 million to sign a good pitcher who might be tradeable for good value in the season?

Originally Posted by snepp

The Twins brass has been on record in that past that budget "saved" in one year will not be rolled forward to future years.

My original question wasn't meant to be confrontational, although tones are filtered out on teh internets. I'm legitimately curious if the only evidence is "well, they haven't done it before!" or if there is some real evidence.

You've mentioned that they've been on record saying this. Do you have a cite?

Originally Posted by 70charger

You've mentioned that they've been on record saying this. Do you have a cite?

It is very hard to go back and find cites for these policies but my recollection is that it has come up in the context of back-loading (or front-loading) contracts ... especially when the Mauer contract was announced. My recollection is that the Twins made it very clear that they do business on an annual cash basis. If I felt that it was important to have a specific cite, that's where I would start looking.

I'll see if I can find them. We had a pretty lengthy discussion about the general topic of revenues/budgets/etc on BYTO a few years back and those type of things were cited in it.

Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

The potentially good news is that there are still a few names on the market that would rank respectably on the list above and would considerably improve the grade of the Twins' offseason. These include Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders, but the crop is dwindling.

It's unclear whether Terry Ryan is interested in legitimately pursuing any of these players. If he doesn't, it will be difficult to look at his offseason as anything short of a failure

Right but let's be honest. Even with the aggressive approach to rebuilding a rotation, Kansas City is still behind the Tigers and White Sox in terms of pitching. What the Twins needed to do wasn't going to be done in one year unless Ryan developed a Flex Capacitor and brought back Johan Santana v.2004. I would've liked the Twins to have made a move for Bauer. But I like Worley's chances to be a Doug Fister type, and Meyer and May are both steps in the right direction giving us a glimmer of hope. The next step is to stop grabbing college relievers with mechanical issues in the early rounds of the draft, have some patience with Hendriks and Gibson when they have their growing pains, and to sell high on Scott Diamond if he has another good year instead of giving him a Blackburn deal.

I wouldn't mind it if they signed Shaun Marcum. But that isn't going to make or break the offseason. What needs to happen is for the front office to bring more Meyers and Mays into the system for things to be a success.