Projecting the Twins 2013 Record... with rosy projections

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Originally Posted by Nick Nelson

Nice thread, jay. I like the idea of trying to tangibly envision a best-case scenario and what this team could do if everything breaks right. Unfortunately, some of the assumptions required to meet these parameters are dauntingly huge stretches, especially on the pitching side. I really feel like adding even one legitimate, quality starter to the mix would greatly increase their chances of staying afloat.

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I think that it is close. And again, (great post btw.) we are talking about a best-case scenario. A scenario where all the pitchers the Twins have signed are healthy and effective. In that case, Diamond will be number 4 and the rotation would look like this:

Harden
Pelfrey
Worley
Diamond
Correia

If I think of these guys at their best (remember, best case scenario,) this is not that bad of a rotation. And Gibson and Hendriks and Meyer and May on the wings.

The problem I have is one that will be even worse, if the Twins add another arm without subtracting someone because the above 4 are already blocked... and I am not even mentioning Blackburn.

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Originally Posted by jay

Great question. It wasn't a 'by the pitcher' breakdown that I used, but rather a look at the whole group. Here's the math I used to arrive at 100 runs for the rotation:

The 2012 starters allowed 528 ER in 880 IP.
(Minnesota Twins Team Stats » 2012 » Starters » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball)
If we think they can be league-average in 2013, the ERA for the group will be around 4.10.

I assumed the improved performance would lead to longer starts, for 940 IP. The 4.10 ERA at that many IP is 428 runs.

So, 528-428... 100 fewer runs allowed.

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I know I'm nitpicking here, but the league average ERA for starters last year was roughly 4.40. Relievers were at 3.55, the combined figure was 4.10.

That would be 458 runs in those 940 innings for the starters.

I think, if you're looking for positives, you should look to things that speak to the long-term. Like getting to see Aaron Hicks, a full season of Parmalee, Kyle Gibson, Worley, etc. Any hope for vast improvements on this team overlooks the fact that things didn't go catastrophically wrong last year. They just weren't very good and haven't improved much (if at all) this offseason.

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Originally Posted by snepp

I know I'm nitpicking here, but the league average ERA for starters last year was roughly 4.40. Relievers were at 3.55, the combined figure was 4.10.

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I realize I'm nitpicking back, but it made me check again. I come up with 28617 1/3 IP for the SPs and 13335 ER in 2012 for an ERA of 4.19. Where's the 4.40 figure coming from?

Major League Team Stats » 2012 » Starters » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

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Originally Posted by jay

I realize I'm nitpicking back, but it made me check again. I come up with 28617 1/3 IP for the SPs and 13335 ER in 2012 for an ERA of 4.19. Where's the 4.40 figure coming from?

Major League Team Stats » 2012 » Starters » Standard Statistics | FanGraphs Baseball

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MLB average is 4.19 -> 13335 ER in 28617.2 Inn
AL-only average is 4.37 -> 6474 ER in 13342.1 Inn
NL-only average is 4.04 -> 6861 ER in 15275.1 Inn

From baseball reference, the actual figure was 4.37.

American League 2012 Pitching Splits - Baseball-Reference.com


Edit: I see, you're looking at ML as a whole.

Ah, I see.

I suppose AL average would probably be the more realistic goal. That's just GREAT... now come up with 30 more runs some where.

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Originally Posted by jay

... now come up with 30 more runs some where.

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A Shaun Marcum signing could help out in that regard.

They won't lose as many games as last year, view that any way you choose.

Last year... The Starting Pitching was bad... The effect that had on the 2012 team was obvious to all... We kept putting an ineffective Blackburn and Marquis and Liriano out there because we had nobody else to throw.

In 2013... I have no expectation for Kershaw type performance from anyone... but... we do have options this year... Not Kershaw type options but options none the less. If Ryan/Gardenhire use those options... Average pitching is absolutely possible and with just average pitching... The team can improve their win loss totals by quite a bit.

The key will be... If Correia fails like most here seem to think he will... The Twins won't keep trotting him out there and instead turn to Gibson, Hendriks... Deduno or whoever to see if they can at least provide average pitching.

If Correia or Pelfrey have 6 plus ERA's in June and are still in the rotations... Our pitching depth will mean nothing and it will be a long year. If our starters can average around 4.40... We could be OK.

I'm still hoping for a Marcum signing... I will be dispointed if we don't and I am preparing for that highly possible disapointment.

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Originally Posted by Riverbrian

Last year... The Starting Pitching was bad... The effect that had on the 2012 team was obvious to all... We kept putting an ineffective Blackburn and Marquis and Liriano out there because we had nobody else to throw.

In 2013... I have no expectation for Kershaw type performance from anyone... but... we do have options this year... Not Kershaw type options but options none the less. If Ryan/Gardenhire use those options... Average pitching is absolutely possible and with just average pitching... The team can improve their win loss totals by quite a bit.

The key will be... If Correia fails like most here seem to think he will... The Twins won't keep trotting him out there and instead turn to Gibson, Hendriks... Deduno or whoever to see if they can at least provide average pitching.

If Correia or Pelfrey have 6 plus ERA's in June and are still in the rotations... Our pitching depth will mean nothing and it will be a long year. If our starters can average around 4.40... We could be OK.

I'm still hoping for a Marcum signing... I will be dispointed if we don't and I am preparing for that highly possible disapointment.

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Man, you use a lot of ... ;)

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Originally Posted by edavis0308

Man, you use a lot of ... ;)

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lol... yeah... I know... You'd think I'd learn to use actual comma's and actual punctuation... I really can't say why I do it... Other than... I've always done it... My bosses always know which reports are from me... If I fail to ID them.

I guess I should have paid more attention in English class growing up...